Low Power Wide Area Internet of Things: Market Forecasts and MNO Approaches

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Low power wide area (LPWA) IoT technologies in unlicensed spectrum are growing in coverage and adoption, while standardized technologies for use in licensed spectrum are to become available later this year. The benefits of low cost, low power and broad coverage (including indoor) address a wide range of different application requirements which cellular, short range wireless and other connectivity options cannot match. Therefore growth is forecast to be very high. A number of proprietary LPWA technologies are available today, with deployments widening. We see that there are three key contenders emerging: SIGFOX, LoRa and RPMA, each of which enjoys different advantages and disadvantages in terms of capability, industry support, business model, degree of coverage and level of adoption. 3GPP LPWA standards, notably LTE-M and NB-IoT, will be finalized by mid-2016, and the first products are expected by the end of 2016.

Scope

• LPWA technologies provide significant improvements in terms of power consumption, coverage and pricing over cellular and other M2M connectivity technologies, and as a result we expect to see strong adoption in coming years. Between 2015 and 2020, we forecast that cellular M2M connections will grow from 310m to 715m and LPWA M2M connections will grow from 20m to over 860m.

• Smart meters will, by some margin, be the largest application with 45% of total LPWA connections in 2020. Industrial/financial applications will be the second largest, followed by consumer electronics, a broad category where we expect very high growth rates around 2020. Smart city applications, notably intelligent lighting/parking and smart buildings, are forecast to account for 12% of total LPWA connections in 2020. The adoption of LPWA in land vehicle-based applications is expected to be limited.

• North America is initially the largest LPWA region, largely because of the adoption of RPMA devices in predominantly private networks. LoRa and SIGFOX networks are also being rolled out in US. Western Europe is expected to become the largest region in terms of LPWA connections in 2017, but Asia Pacific will overtake it in the following year and by 2020 the latter is expected to represent nearly 46% of the total.

• Deployment of LPWA networks is expected to be much slower in developing markets, where the focus on M2M overall is much more limited. Africa & Middle East, Central & Eastern Europe and Latin America are expected to account for just 14% of LPWA global connections in 2020.

• Mobile network operators are following a number of different approaches, depending on local market conditions, market maturity, degree of international exposure, market position and degree of focus on M2M. Most operators are waiting for 3GPP standard LPWA technologies to be ratified and commercialized. Some operators are backing a range of LPWA technologies, either because they operate across diverse markets which have different needs or for opportunistic reasons, combined with local competition.

Reasons to Buy

This report helps executives gain understanding of the different LPWA IoT technologies and adoption trends across various geographies and industry verticals.

The LPWA IoT competitive landscape is given extra attention, enabling MNOs, vendors and unlicensed LPWA Service Network Operators (SNOs) to gain the insight they need.

The broad but detailed LPWA IoT perspective will enable MNOs, vendors and unlicensed LPWA Service Network Operators (SNOs) to succeed in LWPA deployment across various regions.

The report brings several case studies that showcase the main approaches major mobile network operators (MNOs) are following regarding LPWA IoT technologies.

The report is designed for an executive-level audience, boasting presentation quality that allows it to be turned into presentable material immediately.

Major MentionsSIGFOX
LoRa Alliance
Weightless
Ingenu
KPN
Bouygues
Swisscom
Orange
AT&T
Telefonica
Others
Aerea
Micronet
Abertis
Arqiva
NarrowNet
T-Mobile & Blue Cell
ENGIE
POST + RMS.lu
EI Towers
VT Networks
Senet
Telkom (FastNet)
Lace
SK Telecom
Telstra

Table of Contents

M2M and IoT Definitions and Overview

LPWA Technology Overview

Unlicensed LPWA Provider Profiles

SIGFOX

LoRa Alliance

Weightless

Ingenu

LPWA Technology Assessment

MNO Approaches to LPWA

Deploy proprietary LPWA network

Support range of LPWA technologies

Await 3GPP LPWA standards

Resell LPWA network services

M2M and LPWA Market Forecasts

MNO LPWA Case Studies

Key Findings and Recommendations

Table

Exhibit 1: M2M Overview

Exhibit 2: Pyramid Research’s M2M Application Categories

Exhibit 3: Mapping M2M Applications by Bandwidth and Coverage/Mobility Requirements

Exhibit 4: Cellular M2M Connections as a Percentage of Total Cellular Sims by Region, 2015

Exhibit 5: Telefonica Cellular M2M Connections as a Percentage of Total Cellular Sims by Country, Q3 2015

Exhibit 6: M2M Overview

Exhibit 7: Wireless Technology Comparison of Bandwidth Vs. Range

Exhibit 8: M2M Network Technologies: Licensed Vs. Unlicensed

Exhibit 9: Comparison of Cellular and LPWA IoT Technologies

Exhibit 10: 3GPP Standards Address Both IoT and High Data Usage Requirements

Exhibit 11: LTE Categories and Details

Exhibit 12: SIGFOX Growth and Key Milestones

Exhibit 13: SIGFOX Network Deployments

Exhibit 14: LORA Alliance Membership Growth

Exhibit 15: LORA Network Deployments

Exhibit 16: Weightless SIG Key Members

Exhibit 17: Key Ingenu Energy Partners

Exhibit 18: Mapping Wireless WAN M2M Technologies by Bandwidth and Battery Life

Exhibit 19: Link Budget Comparison of LPWA Technologies

Exhibit 20: Wireless M2M Module Pricing Trends, 2014-2017

Exhibit 21: Cellular and LPWA IoT Technology Ecosystem Comparison

Exhibit 22: LPWA Impact on 2G by Market Type

Exhibit 23: Network Discontinuation: Announcements and Timings

Exhibit 24: Global Population Coverage Estimates, 2016

Exhibit 25: M2M Connectivity Technology Comparison by Application

Exhibit 26: MNO Main Approaches To LPWA Technologies

Exhibit 27: MNO Deploys Proprietary LPWA Network Approach Summary

Exhibit 28: MNO Supports a Range of LPWA Technologies Approach Summary

Exhibit 29: MNO Waits For Standard LPWA Technology Approach Summary

Exhibit 30: MNO Resells LPWA Network Services Approach Summary

Exhibit 31: Operator M2M Capabilities

Exhibit 32: LPWA Key Milestones and Forecast, 2014-2020

Exhibit 33: Key LPWA Connections Forecast Assumptions by Region and by Type of Spectrum

Exhibit 34: M2M Wireless WAN Connections by Technology, 2014-2020

Exhibit 35: Cellular and LPWA M2M Connectivity Revenue, 2014-2020

Exhibit 36: LPWA Connections by Application, 2014-2020

Exhibit 37: LPWA Connections by Region, 2014-2020

Exhibit 38: LPWA M2M Connections by Application In North America, 2014-2020

Exhibit 39: LPWA M2M Connections by Application In Western Europe, 2014-2020

Exhibit 40: LPWA M2M Connections by Application In Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020

Exhibit 41: LPWA M2M Connections by Application In Asia Pacific, 2014-2020

Exhibit 42: LPWA M2M Connections by Application In Latin America, 2014-2020

Exhibit 43: LPWA M2M Connections by Application In Africa And Middle East, 2014-2020

Exhibit 44: Global Utility Meter Breakdown, 2015

Exhibit 45: Smart Meter Forecast by Connection Technology, 2014-2020

Exhibit 46: Cellular & LPWA M2M Connections Forecast, Telematics and Fleet Management, 2014-2020

Exhibit 47: Cellular and LPWA M2M Connections Forecast, Consumer Electronics, 2014-2020

Exhibit 48: Cellular and LPWA M2M Connections Forecast, Smart City, 2014-2020

Exhibit 49: Cellular and LPWA M2M Connections Forecast, Industrial/Financial, 2014-2020

Exhibit 50: KPN M2M Overview

Exhibit 51: KPN M2M and LPWA Connections, 2013-2016

Exhibit 52: Wireless WAN M2M Connections In France, 2013-2016

Exhibit 53: Bouygues Group Overview

Exhibit 54: Swisscom Mobile Data and Transmitter Capacity Breakdown by Cellular Generation, 2015

Exhibit 55: Stromer EBIKE Connecting Through Swisscom Network

Exhibit 56: Orange IoT 2015 Revenue, 2018 Target and as a Percentage of Business Services Group Revenue

Exhibit 57: Orange’s Datavenue Suite of IoT Services

Exhibit 58: AT&T Vertical M2M Services

Exhibit 59: M2M Subscriptions, AT&T, US, 2013-2015

Exhibit 60: Telefonica M2M Connections by Region, Q4 2014 Vs. Q4 2015

Exhibit 61: Telefonica Movistar Verisure Hogar

Figures

Exhibit 1: M2M Overview

Exhibit 2: Pyramid Research’s M2M Application Categories

Exhibit 3: Mapping M2M Applications by Bandwidth and Coverage/Mobility Requirements

Exhibit 4: Cellular M2M Connections as a Percentage of Total Cellular Sims by Region, 2015

Exhibit 5: Telefonica Cellular M2M Connections as a Percentage of Total Cellular Sims by Country, Q3 2015

Exhibit 6: M2M Overview

Exhibit 7: Wireless Technology Comparison of Bandwidth Vs. Range

Exhibit 8: M2M Network Technologies: Licensed Vs. Unlicensed

Exhibit 9: Comparison of Cellular and LPWA IoT Technologies

Exhibit 10: 3GPP Standards Address Both IoT and High Data Usage Requirements

Exhibit 11: LTE Categories and Details

Exhibit 12: SIGFOX Growth and Key Milestones

Exhibit 13: SIGFOX Network Deployments

Exhibit 14: LORA Alliance Membership Growth

Exhibit 15: LORA Network Deployments

Exhibit 16: Weightless SIG Key Members

Exhibit 17: Key Ingenu Energy Partners

Exhibit 18: Mapping Wireless WAN M2M Technologies by Bandwidth and Battery Life

Exhibit 19: Link Budget Comparison of LPWA Technologies

Exhibit 20: Wireless M2M Module Pricing Trends, 2014-2017

Exhibit 21: Cellular and LPWA IoT Technology Ecosystem Comparison

Exhibit 22: LPWA Impact on 2G by Market Type

Exhibit 23: Network Discontinuation: Announcements and Timings

Exhibit 24: Global Population Coverage Estimates, 2016

Exhibit 25: M2M Connectivity Technology Comparison by Application

Exhibit 26: MNO Main Approaches To LPWA Technologies

Exhibit 27: MNO Deploys Proprietary LPWA Network Approach Summary

Exhibit 28: MNO Supports a Range of LPWA Technologies Approach Summary

Exhibit 29: MNO Waits For Standard LPWA Technology Approach Summary

Exhibit 30: MNO Resells LPWA Network Services Approach Summary

Exhibit 31: Operator M2M Capabilities

Exhibit 32: LPWA Key Milestones and Forecast, 2014-2020

Exhibit 33: Key LPWA Connections Forecast Assumptions by Region and by Type of Spectrum

Exhibit 34: M2M Wireless WAN Connections by Technology, 2014-2020

Exhibit 35: Cellular and LPWA M2M Connectivity Revenue, 2014-2020

Exhibit 36: LPWA Connections by Application, 2014-2020

Exhibit 37: LPWA Connections by Region, 2014-2020

Exhibit 38: LPWA M2M Connections by Application In North America, 2014-2020

Exhibit 39: LPWA M2M Connections by Application In Western Europe, 2014-2020

Exhibit 40: LPWA M2M Connections by Application In Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020

Exhibit 41: LPWA M2M Connections by Application In Asia Pacific, 2014-2020

Exhibit 42: LPWA M2M Connections by Application In Latin America, 2014-2020

Exhibit 43: LPWA M2M Connections by Application In Africa And Middle East, 2014-2020

Exhibit 44: Global Utility Meter Breakdown, 2015

Exhibit 45: Smart Meter Forecast by Connection Technology, 2014-2020

Exhibit 46: Cellular & LPWA M2M Connections Forecast, Telematics and Fleet Management, 2014-2020

Exhibit 47: Cellular and LPWA M2M Connections Forecast, Consumer Electronics, 2014-2020

Exhibit 48: Cellular and LPWA M2M Connections Forecast, Smart City, 2014-2020

Exhibit 49: Cellular and LPWA M2M Connections Forecast, Industrial/Financial, 2014-2020

Exhibit 50: KPN M2M Overview

Exhibit 51: KPN M2M and LPWA Connections, 2013-2016

Exhibit 52: Wireless WAN M2M Connections In France, 2013-2016

Exhibit 53: Bouygues Group Overview

Exhibit 54: Swisscom Mobile Data and Transmitter Capacity Breakdown by Cellular Generation, 2015

Exhibit 55: Stromer EBIKE Connecting Through Swisscom Network

Exhibit 56: Orange IoT 2015 Revenue, 2018 Target and as a Percentage of Business Services Group Revenue

Exhibit 57: Orange’s Datavenue Suite of IoT Services

Exhibit 58: AT&T Vertical M2M Services

Exhibit 59: M2M Subscriptions, AT&T, US, 2013-2015

Exhibit 60: Telefonica M2M Connections by Region, Q4 2014 Vs. Q4 2015

Exhibit 61: Telefonica Movistar Verisure Hogar

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