Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Renewables Market 2020 – MEED Insights

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The report provides a comprehensive review of the trends, opportunities and challenges in Middle East’s fast-changing renewable energy sector. Updated in April 2020 to reflect the huge disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the report looks at the immediate impact of the virus on the regional energy market, and its impact on the region’s ambitious plans to develop solar, wind and waste-to-energy projects in the region. The report looks at the long-term investment plans as well as the current project opportunities planned or under development across the region.

Mena Renewables 2020 with Covid-19 update is the latest premium market report from MEED, the leading provider of Middle East business intelligence.

The report provides a comprehensive country-by-country review of the renewable energy sector across the Mena region with in-depth analysis of projected investments, policy and legislative frameworks, and the projects planned and under way.

It also details the key government bodies driving the development of renewables in each country.

Written by MEED, the Middle East market experts within the GlobalData Group, the report is a valuable asset for anyone seeking to do business in the Middle East’s energy sector that will help in shaping business development and strategy in the region.

Updated in April 2020, the report looks at the impact of Covid-19 on the renewable energy sector in the Middle East and North Africa, and what that means for business and investment in the region.

Middle East renewable energy ambitions face new challenges

The de-facto shutdown of much of the global economy in the first four months of 2020 caused by measures to stop the spread of coronavirus (Covid-19) is challenging many of the drivers of business growth and investment in the Middle East and North Africa. The collapse of oil prices and fall in tourism and consumer spending has raised deep questions about some of the region’s highest growth sectors.

One sector that shows no sign of disappearing is renewables. While the supply chain for projects has been disrupted, and the commercial model for privately finance power plants has been upset, the region remains committed to diversifying is energy sources and lowering its costs through renewables.

With about 28GW of renewable energy production capacity installed across the Middle East and North Africa (Mena), of which by far the biggest component is hydropower with 21GW, renewable energy represents only 7 per cent of the region’s power generation capacity. But with electricity demand rising at about 5 per cent a year, and with a shortage of readily available natural gas supplies, expanding renewables capacity is now one of the top policy priorities for governments in the region.

Boosted by falling technology costs and the drive to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, most countries are planning and procuring solar and wind projects. Across the region, governments have set ambitious clean energy targets, with Dubai the most aggressive, aiming for 75 per cent of its energy to come from clean sources by 2050. At the start of 2020, about 98GW of new renewable energy generation capacity was planned across the region, with 39GW of additional capacity due to come on stream by 2025.

The latest edition of Abu Dhabi’s World Future Energy Summit (WFES) in January 2020, highlighted the strides that have been taken in the region, and particularly by the UAE, to play a leading role in the transition from unsustainable carbon-production to sustainable renewable energy.

Completion of the GCC’s first utility-scale renewables projects has increased confidence among governments, developers and financiers. This has reduced the cost of financing and delivering projects. The market also expects greater adoption of small and medium-scale schemes such as rooftop solar.

At present, it is countries with hydropower capabilities that have the highest renewables capacity. The landscape is changing rapidly however as a series of large-scale solar and wind projects are being delivered. But as renewables move from the fringes to the centre of the region’s energy eco-system, regulators, investors and consumers must overcome several structural and technical obstacles.

Regulatory reform is the biggest challenge facing renewables. Merging renewable energy, primarily photovoltaic solar power, into power grids requires policy adjustments and new regulations. This includes ensuring grid flexibility and stability, integrating new technologies such as battery-storage and electric vehicles, and establishing commercially-attractive business models. Another challenge is to break the link between electricity and water production that is hard-coded into the region’s utilities.

Reasons to Buy

Detailed assessment of the long term opportunities for business and projects in the Middle East’s renewable energy sector

Comprehensive review of the impact of Covid-19 on the energy sector

Outlook for renewable energy policy and investment

The report covers all sources of renewable energy including solar, wind, hydro-electric and waste-to-energy, as well as alternative fuels

Projects opportunities with client and procurement details

Investment drivers and client spending plans

Understand risks and set strategy in the renewable energy sector

Complete assessment of the outlook for the solar, wind and other renewable energy sources across the Middle East and North Africa

Detailed analysis of sustainable energy strategies and renewables projects in 14 markets across the Middle East and North Africa

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Covid-19 and Low Oil Prices Impact Analysis

1.1 Demand

1.2 Supply

1.3 Localisation boost

1.4 Overall outlook

2. Introduction

2.1 Targets

2.2 Drivers

2.3 Technology costs

2.4 Economic growth

2.5 Financing models

2.6 Other initiatives

3. Technology

3.1 Solar

3.2 Wind

3.3 Cost of renewables

3.4 Waste-to-energy

3.5 Energy storage and grid integration

3.6 Digitalisation and smart grids

4. Algeria

4.1 Overview

4.2 Structure

4.3 Renewable capacity and generation

4.4 Renewable energy policy

4.5 Projects

4.6 Key contacts

5. Bahrain

5.1 Overview

5.2 Structure

5.3 Renewable capacity and generation

5.4 Renewable energy policy

5.5 Projects

5.6 Key contacts

6. Egypt

6.1 Overview

6.2 Structure

6.3 Renewable capacity and generation

6.4 Renewable energy policy

6.5 Projects

6.6 Key contacts

7. Iran

7.1 Overview

7.2 Structure

7.3 Renewable capacity and generation

7.4 Renewable energy policy

7.5 Projects

7.6 Key contacts

8. Iraq

8.1 Overview

8.2 Structure

8.3 Renewable capacity and generation

8.4 Renewable energy policy

8.5 KRG region

8.6 Projects

9.9 Key contacts

9. Jordan

9.1 Overview

9.2 Structure

9.3 Renewable capacity and generation

9.4 Renewable energy policy

9.5 Projects

9.6 Key contacts

10. Kuwait

10.1 Overview

10.2 Structure

10.3 Renewable capacity and generation

10.4 Renewable energy policy

10.5 Projects

10.6 Key contacts

11. Morocco

11.1 Overview

11.2 Industry structure

11.3 Renewable capacity and generation

11.4 Renewable energy policy

11.5 Projects

11.6 Key contacts

12. Oman

12.1 Overview

12.2 Structure

12.3 Renewable capacity and generation

12.4 Renewable energy policy

12.5 Projects

12.6 Key contacts

13. Qatar

13.1 Overview

13.2 Structure

13.3 Renewable capacity and generation

13.4 Renewable energy policy

13.5 Projects

13.6 Key contacts

14. Saudi Arabia

14.1 Overview

14.2 Structure

14.3 Renewable capacity and generation

14.4 Renewable energy policy

14.5 Projects

14.6 Key contacts

15. Tunisia

15.1 Overview

15.2 Structure

15.3 Renewable capacity and generation

15.4 Renewable energy policy

15.5 Projects

15.6 Key contacts

16. UAE

16.1 Market overview

16.2 Structure

16.3 Renewable capacity and generation

16.4 Renewable energy policy

16.5 Abu Dhabi

16.6 Dubai

16.7 Northern Emirates

16.8 Key contacts

17. Other Markets – Syria

17.1 Overview

17.2 Structure

17.3 Renewable capacity and generation

17.4 Renewable energy policy

17.5 Projects

17.6 Key contacts

Disclaimer

Table

List of Tables

Table 1: Key renewable energy related facts in Middle East and North Africa (Mena), 2018

Table 2: Renewable capacity and power generation in the Mena region, 2018−2025

Table 3: Major CSP projects in the Mena region ($m), 2019*

Table 4: Integrated solar combined cycle projects in the Mena region ($m), 2019

Table 5: Wind projects in the Mena region in the pre-execution phase ($m), 2019*

Table 6: Top 10 waste-to-energy projects in the Mena region ($m), 2019*

Table 7: Algeria power and renewables sector key facts, 2018

Table 8: Algeria planned capacity increases by fuel type (MW), 2015−30

Table 9: Algeria key contacts

Table 10: Bahrain power and renewables sector key facts, 2018

Table 11: Bahrain renewable power generation projects, 2019*

Table 12: Bahrain key contacts

Table 13: Egypt power and renewables sector key facts, 2018

Table 14: Egypt, renewable energy supporting policies, laws, and regulations

Table 15: Renewable energy schemes by institutions in Egypt

Table 16: Solar FITs

Table 17: Wind FITs

Table 18: Egypt round II solar FIT tariffs ($c/kWh)

Table 19: Egypt round II wind FIT tariffs ($c/kWh)

Table 20: EBRD backed projects, round 2 FIT

Table 21: IFC-backed projects, Egypt FIT round 2

Table 22: Planned merchant IPP renewables projects up to 2022

Table 23: Solar power projects in Egypt ($m) under execution, 2019*

Table 24: Upcoming solar power projects in Egypt ($m), 2019*

Table 25: Wind power projects in Egypt ($m) under execution, 2019*

Table 26: Upcoming wind power projects in Egypt ($m), 2019*

Table 27: Egypt key contacts

Table 28: Iran power and renewables sector key facts, 2018

Table 29: Renewable energy capacity from solar PV, wind, and small hydropower (MW), 2010−2018

Table 30: Iran electricity production by fuel type (% of total), 2000−2018

Table 31: Installed renewable energy power capacity (MW) up to the end of December 2019 in Iran

Table 32: Companies with renewable and clean power purchase agreements at the end of December 2019 in Iran

Table 33: Renewables FIT rates, October 2019

Table 34: Iran, renewable energy projects under execution, 2019*

Table 35: Iran, renewable energy projects in pre-execution phase, 2019*

Table 36: Iran key contacts

Table 37: Iraq power and renewables sector key facts, 2018

Table 38: Iraq, renewable power projects ($m), 2019*

Table 39: Iraq power sector key contacts

Table 40: Jordan power and renewables sector key facts, 2018

Table 41: Available capacity of generating plants (MW)

Table 42: Jordan’s Cegco installed capacity by plant

Table 43: Sepco installed capacity, 2010−17

Table 44: Jordan’s renewable energy tariffs

Table 45: Renewable power projects under execution

Table 46: Renewable power projects, planned

Table 47: Jordan key contacts

Table 48: Kuwait power and renewables sector key facts, 2018

Table 49: Existing power plants

Table 50: Kisr planned renewable programme

Table 51: Small-scale solar schemes in Kuwait

Table 52: Kuwait renewable sector key contacts

Table 53: Morocco power and renewables sector key facts, 2018

Table 54: Morocco key contacts

Table 55: Oman power and renewables sector key facts, 2018

Table 56: Renewable Energy Development Plan – MIS/Duqm (MW), 2018−2024

Table 57: Renewable power projects under execution

Table 58: Renewable power projects, planned

Table 59: Oman key contacts

Table 60: Qatar power and renewables sector key facts, 2018

Table 61: Renewable power projects, planned

Table 62: Qatar key contacts

Table 63: Saudi Arabia power and renewables sector key facts, 2018

Table 64: Saudi Arabia, Repdo renewables projects – Round 2, 2019

Table 65: Repdo renewable energy projects by capacity (MW) and value ($m), 2019*

Table 66: Repdo third round projects

Table 67: List of bidders with prices for the 300MW PV solar project at Sakaka

Table 68: List of bidders with price for the 400MW wind scheme at Dumat al-Jandal

Table 69: Saudi Arabia, renewable energy projects ($m) under execution, 2019*

Table 70: Saudi Arabia, upcoming renewable energy projects ($m), 2019*

Table 71: Saudi Arabia key contacts

Table 72: Tunisia power and renewables sector key facts, 2018

Table 73: STEG’s technical and financial performance indicators, 2014-2017

Table 74: Hydropower plants

Table 75: Wind power plants

Table 76: Tunisia 2020 – Renewable energy projects

Table 77: Renewable power projects planned in Tunisia

Table 78: Tunisia key contacts

Table 79: UAE power and renewables sector key facts, 2018

Table 80: Abu Dhabi power and renewables sector key facts, 2017

Table 81: Companies submitted tender documents for 2GW Al-Dhafra solar power project, Abu Dhabi

Table 82: Abu Dhabi renewable power generation projects, upcoming and under execution by value, 2019*

Table 83: Dubai power and renewables sector key facts, 2017

Table 84: Dubai renewable power generation projects by value, 2019*

Table 85: Northern Emirates power and renewables sector key facts, 2017-2018

Table 86: Northern Emirates renewable power generation projects by value, 2019*

Table 87: UAE Renewables sector key contacts

Table 88: Syria key contacts

Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1: GCC countries renewable energy targets

Figure 2: LCOE of different forms of technology ($/MWh)

Figure 3: Untapped potential of renewable energy sources by region

Figure 4: PV technologies

Figure 5: Efficiency of solar cells in laboratory tests

Figure 6: Market share of thin film technologies (per cent of global PV production), 2000−2017

Figure 7: Annual global PV module production for thin film technologies, 2000−2017

Figure 8: Global PV Module production by region (GWp), 2010−2017

Figure 9: Projected growth of CSP generated electricity (TWh a year), 2010−2050

Figure 10: The Ain Beni Mathar ISCC

Figure 11: Configuration of a wind turbine

Figure 12: Indexed average cost of onshore wind and utility-scale solar PV

Figure 13: Forecasted battery storage dedicated to the power sector by region (GWh)

Figure 14: Oil fields in the Divided Zone

Figure 15: Algeria installed renewable capacity (MW), 2010−2025

Figure 16: Algeria installed renewable capacity by fuel type (per cent), 2015−2020 (Phase 1)

Figure 17: Algeria installed renewable capacity by fuel type (per cent), 2021−2030 (Phase 2)

Figure 18: Algeria annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2010−25

Figure 19: Bahrain installed renewable capacity by fuel type (MW), 2010-25

Figure 20: Bahrain annual renewable power generation by fuel type (GWh), 2010-25

Figure 21: Awarded renewable energy power projects, 2010−2019* ($m)

Figure 22: Structure of the Egyptian electricity sector

Figure 23: Egypt installed renewable capacity (MW), 2010-2025

Figure 24: Egypt annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2010-2025

Figure 25: Total renewables installed capacity by technology (%), 2018

Figure 26: Evolution of installed power capacity (GW) by fuel-type as envisaged in the ISES, 2019-2035

Figure 27: Iran installed renewable capacity (MW), 2010-25

Figure 28: Iran annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2010-25

Figure 29: Iran installed renewable capacity by technology (%), December 2019

Figure 30: Iran renewable energy installations

Figure 31: Iraq installed renewable capacity by fuel type (MW), 2010−2025

Figure 32: Iraq annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2010−25

Figure 33: Comparison of LCOE of solar power and electricity from oil and gas ($/MWh), 2015-2030

Figure 34: Comparison of peak electricity demand and average power generation in Iraqi Kurdistan (MW), 2004-2017

Figure 35: Structure of the KRG Electricity Ministry

Figure 36: Kurdistan region location of existing power generating plants

Figure 37: Jordan installed renewable capacity (MW), 2010−25

Figure 38: Location of Cegco power plants in Jordan

Figure 39: Jordan annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2010−25

Figure 40: Kuwait installed renewable capacity (MW), 2010-25

Figure 41: Kuwait annual renewable power generation (GWh), Kuwait, 2010-25

Figure 42: Solar thermal electricity generating potential in Kuwait

Figure 43: Proposed output levels from the Al-Abdaliya ISCC

Figure 44: Morocco installed renewable capacity (MW), 2010-25

Figure 45: Morocco annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2010-25

Figure 46: Morocco target fuel mix (%), 2020

Figure 47: Solar radiation map of Morocco

Figure 48: Wind map of Morocco

Figure 49: Renewable energy power project investments, 2010−2019* ($m)

Figure 50: The MIS and Salalah systems

Figure 51: Oman installed renewable capacity (MW), 2010−2025

Figure 52: Oman annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2010−25

Figure 53: Global solar radiation average (kWh/m2/d)

Figure 54: Annual direct normal irradiance map of Oman*

Figure 55: Qatar installed renewable capacity (MW), 2010-25

Figure 56: Qatar annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2010-25

Figure 57: Institutional structure of decision-making in the Saudi Arabia energy sector

Figure 58: Saudi Arabia installed renewable capacity (MW), 2010-2025

Figure 59: Saudi Arabia annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2010-2025

Figure 60: Renewable energy power contract awards ($m), 2009−2019*

Figure 61: REPDO’s 2030 Renewables Target

Figure 62: Saudi Arabia, objectives of smart grid and smart metering strategy

Figure 63: Tunisia installed total capacity by technology (%), 2018

Figure 64: Tunisia installed renewable capacity (MW), 2010-25

Figure 65: Tunisia annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2010-25

Figure 66: UAE installed renewable capacity (MW), 2010-2025

Figure 67: UAE annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2010-2025

Figure 68: UAE, clean energy targets, 2050

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