Obesity – US Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Pages: 132 Published: October 01, 2013 Report Code: GDHC167CFR

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After a more than decade long dormancy, the Obesity market is undergoing a revival with the advent of several novel therapies that will lend considerable visibility to this indication space. This includes the use of combination therapies that simultaneously target multiple pathways and regulate appetite control, as well as novel molecular entities with new mechanisms of action. Due to this growing pipeline of late-stage drugs, this market is expected to experience substantial growth over the next decade.

New US entrants are expected to obtain significant market share during the forecast period, as this is a key potential market with an obese population exceeding that of Europe, Japan, and Canada combined. With a severely underserved market, any new players will most certainly have a large potential patient share to gain. The expected drivers of market growth are an increased awareness of the importance of preemptive treatment and sustained management of the condition.

Scope

Overview of Obesity including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.

Detailed information on the key drugs in the US including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.

Sales forecast for the top drugs in the US from 2012-2022.

Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting the US Obesity market.

Reasons to Buy

Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return.

Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for Obesity.

Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential.

Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance.

Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2022 in the US.

Table of Contents

1Table of Contents1

1.1List of Tables4

1.2List of Figures7

2Executive Summary7

2.1Sales for Obesity Therapy in the US, 2012–20227

2.2What Do the Physicians Think?8

3Introduction9

3.1Catalyst11

3.2Related Reports11

3.3Upcoming Related Reports13

4Disease Overview13

4.1Etiology and Pathophysiology16

4.1.1Etiology16

4.1.2Pathophysiology17

4.1.3Prognosis17

4.1.4Quality of Life18

4.2Symptoms18

5Disease Management18

5.1Treatment Overview18

5.2US24

5.2.1Diagnosis24

5.2.2Clinical Practice25

6Competitive Assessment28

6.1Overview28

6.2Strategic Competitor Assessment33

6.3Product Profiles: Drugs35

6.3.1Phentermine35

6.3.2Xenical (orlistat)39

6.3.3Qsymia (phentermine-topiramate)42

6.3.4Belviq (lorcaserin)49

6.3.5Topiramate54

6.3.6Oblean (cetilistat)58

7Opportunity and Unmet Need60

7.1Overview60

7.2A Drug with Greater Than 10% Average Weight Loss62

7.2.1Unmet Need62

7.2.2Gap Analysis62

7.2.3Opportunity63

7.3A Drug with Increased Safety and Tolerability64

7.3.1Unmet Need64

7.3.2Gap Analysis64

7.3.3Opportunity65

7.4Reimbursement by Private and Public Payers66

7.4.1Unmet Need66

7.4.2Gap Analysis67

7.4.3Opportunity67

7.5Increased Physician Education68

7.5.1Unmet Need68

7.5.2Gap Analysis69

7.5.3Opportunity69

7.6Increased Drug-Treatment Rate69

7.6.1Unmet Need69

7.6.2Gap Analysis70

7.6.3Opportunity70

7.7Improved Guidelines70

7.7.1Unmet Need70

7.7.2Gap Analysis71

7.7.3Opportunity71

7.8Improved Approach to Diagnosis72

7.8.1Unmet Need72

7.8.2Gap Analysis72

7.8.3Opportunity72

8Pipeline Assessment73

8.1Overview73

8.2Promising Drugs in Clinical Development76

8.2.1Contrave79

8.2.2Victoza (liraglutide)83

8.2.3Velneperit89

8.2.4Empatic92

9Market Outlook97

9.1United States99

9.1.1Forecast99

9.1.2Key Events103

9.1.3Drivers and Barriers104

10Appendix107

10.1Bibliography107

10.2Abbreviations115

10.3Research Methodology117

10.4Forecasting Methodology117

10.4.1Percent Drug-Treated Obesity Patients118

10.4.2Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class118

10.4.3Launch and Patent Expiry Dates119

10.4.4General Pricing Assumptions119

10.4.5Individual Drug Assumptions120

10.4.6Generic Erosion123

10.4.7Pricing of Pipeline Agents123

10.5Physicians, Specialists, and Payers Included in This Study124

10.6About the Authors127

10.6.1Analysts127

10.6.2Therapy Director – CVMD and Infectious Disease128

10.6.3Director – Medical Devices128

10.6.4Global Head of Healthcare129

10.7About GlobalData130

10.8Contact Us130

10.9Disclaimer130

List of Tables

Table 1:Target Pathways in the Treatment of Obesity17

Table 2:Symptoms of Obesity18

Table 3: Treatment Guidelines for Obesity22

Table 4: Most Prescribed Drugs for Obesity by Class in the Global Markets, 201323

Table 5: Classification of Overweight and Obesity by BMI and Waist Circumference, and the Associated Disease Risk24

Table 6:Bariatric Treatment Attributes32

Table 7: Leading Drug Treatments for Obesity, 201333

Table 8: Marketed Obesity Treatment Devices by Type34

Table 9: Product Profile – Phentermine36

Table 10: Phentermine SWOT Analysis, 201339

Table 11: Product Profile – Xenical40

Table 12: Xenical SWOT Analysis, 201342

Table 13: Product Profile – Qsymia44

Table 14: Qsymia SWOT Analysis, 201348

Table 15: Product Profile – Belviq51

Table 16: Belviq SWOT Analysis, 201353

Table 17: Product Profile – Topiramate55

Table 18: Topiramate SWOT Analysis, 201357

Table 19: Product Profile – Oblean59

Table 20: ObleanSWOT Analysis, 201360

Table 21: Unmet Need and Opportunity in Obesity61

Table 22: Endpoint Analysis of Clinical Trials Conducted in Obesity, 201375

Table 23: Obesity – Phase II–III Pipeline, 201376

Table 24: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Obesity, 201378

Table 25: Obesity Treatment Pipeline Devices by Type78

Table 26: Product Profile – Contrave80

Table 27: Contrave SWOT Analysis, 201383

Table 28: Product Profile – Victoza84

Table 29: Victoza SWOT Analysis, 201388

Table 30: Product Profile – Velneperit89

Table 31: Velneperit SWOT Analysis, 201392

Table 32: Product Profile – Empatic94

Table 33: Empatic SWOT Analysis, 201397

Table 34: Sales Forecasts ($) for Obesity in the United States, 2012–2022101

Table 35: Key Events Impacting Sales for Obesity in the United States, 2012–2022103

Table 36: Obesity Market in the United States – Drivers and Barriers, 2012–2022104

Table 37: Key Launch Dates119

Table 38: Key Patent Expiries119

List of Figures

Figure 1: Sales for Obesity in the United States by Drug Class, 2012–20227

Figure 2: Treatment Algorithm for Obesity20

Figure 3: Projected Increase in the Pharmacological Treatment of Overweight and Obese Patients in the United States, 2012–202224

Figure 4: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in Obesity, 2012–202276

Figure 5: Sales for Obesity in the United States by Drug Class, 2012–2022101

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