Pancreatic Cancer: Opportunity Analysis and Forecast to 2026

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Published: April 30, 2018 Report Code: GDHC079POA-ST

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Pancreatic cancer is set to become the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the US in 2020 after lung cancer, despite accounting for only 3% of new cancer diagnoses. Patients with advanced pancreatic cancer have a median survival of approximately 2.8–5.7 months, even in light of recent therapeutic innovations and elucidation of fundamental biological mechanisms of the disease. In the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan) approximately two-thirds of patients are diagnosed with unresectable Stage III or Stage IV metastatic disease, and a significant proportion of resectable Stage III disease (85%) progresses to metastatic pancreatic cancer.
Since 2013, the FDA and European Medicines Agency (EMA) have approved Celgene’s Abraxane (nab-paclitaxel), followed by Ipsen’s Onivyde (irinotecan liposome injection). On the one hand, the addition of these novel therapeutic agents to existing regimens provides renewed hope to improve the treatment outcomes of patients with pancreatic cancer. On the other hand though, the pancreatic cancer field is littered with numerous clinical trial failures and successful readouts are notably sparse. In 2016, five Phase III agents were discontinued from development, exacerbating the aridity of a barren pancreatic cancer pipeline. However, there are general grounds for optimism as the therapeutic landscape is being transformed by novel frontline combination regimens as well as concrete options beyond this, for cases of disease progression. The integration of second-line therapy into the treatment algorithm of advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma requires refinement in order to become an essential strategic component against the disease.
Key Questions Answered
What are the key drivers behind the uptake and sustained dominance of Abraxane in the pancreatic cancer space, and what are the prevailing trends regarding its use over the forecast period?
The pancreatic cancer market is characterized by a number of unmet needs. What are the main unmet needs in this market? Will the pipeline drugs under development fulfil these unmet needs?
What impact will label expansion of advanced treatments into the lucrative adjuvant setting and targeted therapies into the front-line setting have?

Scope

Overview of pancreatic cancer, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.

Annualized pancreatic cancer therapeutics market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, treatment usage patterns in five patient segments, and forecasts from 2016 to 2026.

Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping and implications for the pancreatic cancer therapeutics market.

Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for pancreatic cancer. The most promising candidates in Phase III development are profiled.

Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global pancreatic cancer market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Reasons to Buy

The report will enable you to:

Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global pancreatic cancer market.

Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global pancreatic cancer market in the future.

Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analysing the performance of various competitors.

Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.

Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

AB Science
AbbVie
Amgen
ARMO Biosciences
Astellas
AstraZeneca
Boston Biomedical
Celgene
Eleison Pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly
Halozyme
Ipsen
Janssen
Merck & Co.
Merrimack Pharmaceuticals
NuCana
Roche
Sumitomo Dainippon
Taiho Pharmaceuticals
Tella Inc.

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 Pancreatic Cancer: Executive Summary

2.1 Modest Growth in the Pancreatic Cancer Market Expected from 2016–2026

2.2 Reformulation Strategies and Second-Generation Products Used by Companies to Preserve or Establish Market Dominance

2.3 High Unmet Needs Exist in Pancreatic Cancer, Particularly for Patients with Poor Performance Status

2.4 High Commercial Opportunity for Metastatic and Adjuvant Treatments that Improve Survival Outcomes

2.5 Late-Stage Pipeline Agents to Have Moderate Impact on the Future Pancreatic Cancer Landscape

2.6 What Do Physicians Think?

3 Introduction

3.1 Catalyst

3.2 Related Reports

3.3 Upcoming Related Reports

4 Disease Overview

4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology

4.1.1 Etiology

4.1.2 Pathophysiology

4.2 Classification or Staging Systems

4.3 Symptoms

4.4 Prognosis

4.5 Quality of Life

5 Epidemiology

5.1 Disease Background

5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

5.3 Global and Historical Trends

5.3.1 Incidence

5.4 Forecast Methodology

5.4.1 Sources

5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods

5.4.3 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer (Excluding PNETs)

5.4.4 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer (Excluding PNETs) by Cancer Stages at Diagnosis

5.4.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer

5.4.6 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer by Germline Mutations

5.4.7 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer (Excluding PNETs) by Other Mutations

5.4.8 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Pancreatic Cancer (Excluding PNETs)

5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Pancreatic Cancer (2016–2026)

5.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer

5.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer

5.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer

5.5.4 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer by Cancer Stages at Diagnosis

5.5.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer

5.5.6 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer by Germline Mutations

5.5.7 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer by Other Mutations

5.5.8 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Pancreatic Cancer

5.6 Discussion

5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

5.6.2 Limitations of Analysis

5.6.3 Strengths of Analysis

6 Current Treatment Options

6.1 Overview

6.2 Diagnosis and Treatment

6.2.1 Diagnosis

6.2.2 Treatment Guidelines and Leading Prescribed Drugs

6.3 Clinical Practice

6.4 Abraxane (nab-paclitaxel)

6.4.1 Overview

6.4.2 Efficacy

6.4.3 Safety

6.4.4 SWOT Analysis

6.5 Tarceva (erlotinib)

6.5.1 Overview

6.5.2 Efficacy

6.5.3 Safety

6.5.4 SWOT Analysis

6.6 TS-1 (gimeracil + oteracil + tegafur)

6.6.1 Overview

6.6.2 Efficacy

6.6.3 Safety

6.6.4 SWOT Analysis

6.7 Onivyde (liposomal irinotecan)

6.7.1 Overview

6.7.2 Efficacy

6.7.3 Safety

6.7.4 SWOT Analysis

6.8 Sutent (sunitinib malate)

6.8.1 Overview

6.8.2 Efficacy

6.8.3 Safety

6.8.4 SWOT Analysis

6.9 Gemcitabine

6.9.1 Overview

6.9.2 Efficacy

6.9.3 Safety

6.10 Other Therapeutic Classes

7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

7.1 Overview

7.2 Improved Frontline Regimens, Particularly in Advanced Patients with Poor Performance Status

7.2.1 Unmet Need

7.2.2 Gap Analysis

7.2.3 Opportunity

7.3 Effective Adjuvant Treatments and Improved Patient Care

7.3.1 Unmet Need

7.3.2 Gap Analysis

7.3.3 Opportunity

7.4 Earlier Diagnosis of Disease

7.4.1 Unmet Need

7.4.2 Gap Analysis

7.4.3 Opportunity

7.5 Targeted Therapies and Predictive Biomarkers

7.5.1 Unmet Need

7.5.2 Gap Analysis

7.5.3 Opportunity

7.6 Treatment Options for Second-Line Metastatic Patients

7.6.1 Unmet Need

7.6.2 Gap Analysis

7.6.3 Opportunity

8 R&D Strategies

8.1 Overview of R&D Strategies

8.1.1 Reformulation Strategies and Second-Generation Products

8.1.2 Risk-Mitigation Strategies in Drug Development in Pancreatic Cancer for Small- to Medium-Sized Companies

8.1.3 Indication Expansion and Sequencing

8.2 Clinical Trials Design

8.2.1 Optimal Primary Endpoints Reappraised in the Metastatic and Adjuvant Settings

8.2.2 Gemcitabine + Abraxane Combination: Backbone Therapy and Standard Active Comparator for First-Line Metastatic Trials

8.2.3 Slow Clinical Trial Accrual Rates and Use of Early Determinants of Response

9 Pipeline Assessment

9.1 Overview

9.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development

9.3 Pegvorhyaluronidase alfa (PEGPH20)

9.3.1 Overview

9.3.2 Efficacy

9.3.3 Safety

9.3.4 SWOT Analysis

9.4 Imbruvica (ibrutinib)

9.4.1 Overview

9.4.2 Efficacy

9.4.3 Safety

9.4.4 SWOT Analysis

9.5 Napabucasin (BBI608)

9.5.1 Overview

9.5.2 Efficacy

9.5.3 Safety

9.5.4 SWOT Analysis

9.6 Lynparza (olaparib)

9.6.1 Overview

9.6.2 Efficacy

9.6.3 Safety

9.6.4 SWOT Analysis

9.7 Acelarin (NUC-1031)

9.7.1 Overview

9.7.2 Efficacy

9.7.3 Safety

9.7.4 SWOT Analysis

9.8 Masiviera (masitinib)

9.8.1 Overview

9.8.2 Efficacy

9.8.3 Safety

9.8.4 SWOT Analysis

9.9 Pegilodecakin (AM0010)

9.9.1 Overview

9.9.2 Efficacy

9.9.3 Safety

9.9.4 SWOT Analysis

9.10 Glufosfamide

9.10.1 Overview

9.10.2 Efficacy

9.10.3 Safety

9.10.4 SWOT Analysis

9.11 TLP0-001

9.11.1 Overview

9.11.2 Efficacy

9.11.3 Safety

9.11.4 SWOT Analysis

9.12 Innovative Early Stage Approaches

9.13 Other Drugs in Development

10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis

10.1 Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs

10.2 Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs

10.3 Competitive Assessment

10.3.1 Pegvorhyaluronidase alfa Competitive Assessment

10.3.2 Imbruvica Competitive Assessment

10.3.3 Napabucasin Competitive Assessment

10.3.4 Lynparza Competitive Assessment

10.3.5 Acelarin Competitive Assessment

10.3.6 Pegilodecakin Competitive Assessment

10.3.7 Glufosfamide Competitive Assessment

10.3.8 TLP0-001 Competitive Assessment

10.4 Top-Line 10-Year Forecast

10.4.1 US

10.4.2 5EU

10.4.3 Japan

11 Appendix

11.1 Bibliography

11.2 Abbreviations

11.3 Methodology

11.3.1 Forecasting Methodology

11.3.2 Diagnosed Patients

11.3.3 Percent Drug-Treated Patients

11.3.4 Drugs Included

11.3.5 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates

11.3.6 General Pricing Assumptions

11.3.7 Individual Drug Assumptions

11.3.8 Generic Erosion

11.3.9 Pricing of Pipeline Agents

11.4 Primary Research – KOLs Interviewed for This Report

11.5 Primary Research – Prescriber Survey

11.6 About the Authors

11.6.1 Analysts

11.6.2 Therapy Area Director

11.6.3 Epidemiologist

11.6.4 Reviewer

11.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

11.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

11.7 About GlobalData

11.8 Contact Us

11.9 Disclaimer

Table

Table 1: Pancreatic Cancer: Key Metrics in the 7MM

Table 2: Selected Genetic Syndromes with Associated Pancreatic Cancer Risk

Table 3: AJCC TNM Classification System for Pancreatic Cancer

Table 4: AJCC TNM Staging System for Pancreatic Cancer

Table 5: Common Pancreatic Cancer Symptoms

Table 6: Risk Factors for Pancreatic Cancer

Table 7: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer, Ages ≥15 Years, N, Both Sexes, Select Years 2016–2026

Table 8: Imaging Methods Used For Pancreatic Cancer Staging

Table 9: Treatment Guidelines for Disease Pancreatic Cancer

Table 10: Most Commonly Used Regimens for Pancreatic Cancer in the 7MM

Table 11: Product Profile – Abraxane

Table 12: Abraxane SWOT Analysis, 2018

Table 13: Product Profile – Tarceva (erlotinib)

Table 14: Tarceva (erlotinib) SWOT Analysis, 2018

Table 15: Product Profile – TS-1 (gimeracil + oteracil + tegafur)

Table 16: Efficacy Results of the Phase III JASPAC 01 Trial

Table 17: Efficacy Results of the Phase III GEST Trial

Table 18: Safety Results of the Phase III JASPAC 01 Trial

Table 19: TS-1 SWOT Analysis, 2018

Table 20: Product Profile – Onivyde (liposomal irinotecan)

Table 21: Efficacy Results of the Phase III NAPOLI-1 Trial

Table 22: Safety Results of the Phase III NAPOLI-1 Trial

Table 23: Onivyde SWOT Analysis, 2018

Table 25: Product Profile – Sutent (sunitinib malate)

Table 26: Efficacy Results of the Phase II PACT-12 Trial

Table 27: Sutent SWOT Analysis, 2018

Table 24: Product Profile –Gemcitabine

Table 28: Summary of Other Commonly Used Chemotherapy Regimens in Pancreatic Cancer, 2018

Table 29: Recently Completed and Ongoing Clinical Trials in the Adjuvant Setting in Pancreatic Cancer

Table 30: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Pancreatic Cancer, 2016–2026

Table 31: Product Profile – Pegvorhyaluronidase alfa

Table 32: Efficacy Results of the Phase II HALO-202 Study

Table 33: Safety Results of the Phase II HALO-202 Trial

Table 34: Pegvorhyaluronidase alfa SWOT Analysis, 2018

Table 35: Product Profile – Imbruvica

Table 36: Imbruvica SWOT Analysis, 2018

Table 37: Product Profile – Napabucasin

Table 38: Safety Results of Napabucasin + Gemcitabine + Abraxane

Table 39: Napabucasin SWOT Analysis, 2018

Table 40: Product Profile – Lynparza

Table 41: Efficacy of Lynparza in Heavily Treated Pancreatic Cancer

Table 42: Safety of Lynparza in Heavily Treated Pancreatic Cancer

Table 43: Lynparza SWOT Analysis, 2018

Table 44: Product Profile – Acelarin

Table 45: Acelarin SWOT Analysis, 2018

Table 46: Product Profile – Masiviera

Table 47: Efficacy of Masiviera + Gemcitabine in Treatment-Naïve PDAC

Table 48: Safety of Masiviera + Gemcitabine in Treatment-Naïve PDAC

Table 49: Masiviera SWOT Analysis, 2018

Table 50: Product Profile – Pegilodecakin

Table 51: Efficacy of Pegilodecakin + FOLFOX in 2L PDAC

Table 52: Safety of Pegilodecakin + FOLFOX in 2L PDAC

Table 53: Pegilodecakin SWOT Analysis, 2018

Table 54: Product Profile – Glufosfamide

Table 55: Safety of Glufosfamide + BSC in Metastatic PDAC After a 1L Gemcitabine-Containing Regimen

Table 56: Glufosfamide SWOT Analysis, 2018

Table 57: Product Profile – TLP0-001

Table 58: TLP0-001 SWOT Analysis, 2018

Table 59: Innovative Early Stage Approaches Involving Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors for Pancreatic Cancer, 2018

Table 60: Innovative Early Stage Approaches for Pancreatic Cancer, 2018

Table 61: Other Drugs in Development for Pancreatic Cancer, 2018

Table 62: Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs – Pancreatic Cancer (Pegvorhyaluronidase Alfa, Napabucasin, and Lynparza)

Table 63: Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs – Pancreatic Cancer (Imbruvica, Acelarin, and Pegilodecakin)

Table 64: Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs – Pancreatic Cancer (Glufosfamide and TLP0-001)

Table 65: Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs – Pancreatic Cancer (Pegvorhyaluronidase Alfa, Napabucasin, and Lynparza)

Table 66: Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs – Pancreatic Cancer (Imbruvica, Acelarin, and Pegilodecakin)

Table 67: Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs – Pancreatic Cancer (Glufosfamide and TLP0-001)

Table 68: Key Events Impacting Sales for Pancreatic Cancer, 2016–2026

Table 69: Pancreatic Cancer Market – Global Drivers and Barriers, 2016–2026

Table 70: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for Pancreatic Cancer

Table 71: Key Historical and Projected Patent Expiry Dates for Pancreatic Cancer

Table 72: High-Prescribing Physicians (Non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country

Figures

Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for Pancreatic Cancer in 2016 and 2026

Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Drugs Benchmarked Against the SOC, Abraxane

Figure 3: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of Pancreatic Cancer (Cases per 100,000 Population), Men, Ages ≥15 Years, 2006 to 2026

Figure 4: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of Pancreatic Cancer (Cases per 100,000 Population), Women, Ages ≥15 Years, 2006 to 2026

Figure 5: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer

Figure 6: 7MM, Sources Used for Relative Survival Proportions to Forecast the Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Pancreatic Cancer

Figure 7: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer by Cancer Stages at Diagnosis

Figure 8: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer

Figure 9: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer by Germline Mutations

Figure 10: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer by Other Mutations

Figure 11: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer, Both Sexes, Ages ≥15 Years, N, 2016

Figure 12: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer, Both Sexes, Ages ≥15 Years, N, 2016

Figure 13: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer, Ages ≥15 Years, N, 2016

Figure 14: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer by Cancer Stages at Diagnosis, Both Sexes, Ages ≥15 Years, N, 2016

Figure 15: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer by Germline Mutations, Both Sexes, Ages ≥15 Years, N, 2016 to 2026

Figure 16: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer by Other Mutations, Both Sexes, Ages ≥15 Years, N, 2016 to 2026

Figure 17: 7MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Pancreatic Cancer, Both Sexes, Ages ≥15 Years, N, 2016

Figure 18: Treatment Algorithm for Resectable and Borderline Resectable Disease

Figure 19: Treatment Algorithm for Locally Advanced Unresectable and Metastatic Disease

Figure 20: Abraxane’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer

Figure 21: TS-1’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer

Figure 22: Onivyde’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer

Figure 23: Unmet Need and Opportunity in Pancreatic Cancer, 2018

Figure 24: Overview of the Development Pipeline in PDAC

Figure 25: Key Phase II/III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects be Licensed for PDAC in the 7MM During the Forecast Period

Figure 26: Pegvorhyaluronidase alfa’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer

Figure 27: Imbruvica’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer

Figure 28: Napabucasin’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer

Figure 29: Lynparza’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer

Figure 30: Acelarin’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer

Figure 31: Masiviera’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer

Figure 32: Pegilodecakin’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer

Figure 33: Glufosfamide’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer

Figure 34: TLP0-001’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer

Figure 35: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Drugs Benchmarked Against the SOC, Abraxane

Figure 36: Global (7MM) Sales Forecast by Country for Pancreatic Cancer in 2016 and 2026

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