Pneumococcal Vaccines – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2028

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Published: March 30, 2020 Report Code: GDHC185PIDR-ST

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Streptococcus pneumoniae (S. pneumoniae), a Gram-positive bacterial respiratory pathogen, is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity globally and is responsible for a large proportion of deaths due to infectious disease. In 2005, The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated 1.6 million deaths were caused by S. pneumoniae annually, including 0.7-1 million children under the age of 5 years. In Europe and the US, the annual incidence of pneumococcal disease ranges from 10 to 100 per 100,000 population. S. pneumoniae causes non-invasive infections such as acute otitis media, sinusitis, and bronchitis, as well as invasive infections such as pneumonia, meningitis, and septicemia. However, the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate and polysaccharide vaccines has significantly reduced burden associated with this disease, particularly in the pediatric and elderly segments.
While the pneumococcal vaccine market has been dominated by a very small number of players in most markets (Pfizer and Merck), and relatively little unmet need remains, the size of the market makes it a compelling proposition for players to consider entering. In 2018, GlobalData estimates the pneumococcal vaccines market to be $5.1B, with the best-selling vaccine globally, Prevnar (Prevenar outside the US) 13 accounting for $4.3B of these sales. Thus, while experts indicate that unmet need is modest, significant financial incentive remains for potential entrants. While GlobalData anticipates new pneumococcal vaccines to be launched in the forecast period, these agents only improve upon existing options, and will not change vaccination rates or vaccination recommendations, leaving pricing increases and population growth as the major influencers of the forecast.
Key Questions Answered
How will the pneumococcal vaccine market landscape in the 9MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Australia, South Korea) change from 2018–2028?
What are the most promising late-stage pipeline products for pneumococcal vaccination?
How do the clinical and commercial attributes of late-stage pipeline products compare with one another, and against existing immunization options?
What are the remaining unmet needs in pneumococcal immunization?
What drivers and barriers will affect pneumococcal vaccine sales in the 9MM over the forecast period?

Scope

Overview of pneumococcal disease, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and current management strategies.

Topline pneumococcal vaccines market revenue from 2018–2028. Annual cost of immunization and major pipeline product sales in this forecast period are included.

Key topics covered include current vaccination options, unmet needs and opportunities, and the drivers and barriers affecting pneumococcal vaccine sales in the 9MM.

Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, synopses of innovative early-stage projects, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline products.

Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global pneumococcal vaccine market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, constraints, and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Key Highlights

During the 10-year forecast period, three pipeline products that are on track to launch, driving a forecast growth in the 9MM from $5.1b in 2018 to $6.2b in 2028, which represents a CAGR of 2%.

The late stage pipeline for pneumococcal vaccines, targeting the unmet need of serogroup coverage, includes Merck’s 15-valent pneumococcal vaccine V-114 and Pfizer’s 20-valent vaccine 20vPnC.

Reasons to Buy

The report will enable you to:

Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global pneumococcal vaccine market.

Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the pneumococcal vaccine market in the future.

Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.

Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.

Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments, and strategic partnerships.

Merck
Pfizer
SK Chemicals

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 Pneumococcal Vaccines: Executive Summary

2.1 Sales

2.2 R&D Strategies

2.3 Unmet Needs

2.4 Remaining Opportunities for New Entrants

2.5 What Do Physicians Think?

3 Introduction

3.1 Catalyst

3.2 Related Reports

3.3 Upcoming Related Reports

4 Disease Overview

4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology

4.1.1 Etiology

4.1.2 Pathophysiology

5 Epidemiology

5.1 Disease Background

5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

5.3 Global and Historical Trends

5.3.1 Diagnosed Incidence of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease (Cases per 100,000 Population)

5.4 Forecast Methodology

5.4.1 Sources Used

5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods

5.4.3 Pneumococcal Vaccination Rates in the Pediatric Population

5.4.4 Pneumococcal Vaccination Rates in the Elderly Population

5.4.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease

5.4.6 Sources Not Used

5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Pneumococcal Vaccines and Invasive Pneumococcal Disease (2018–2028)

5.5.1 Pneumococcal Vaccinated Pediatric Population

5.5.2 Pneumococcal Vaccinated Elderly Population

5.5.3 Diagnosed Incident Cases of IPD

5.5.4 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of IPD

5.6 Discussion

5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

5.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis

5.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis

6 Immunization Recommendations

6.1 Overview

6.2 US

6.3 5EU

6.3.1 France

6.3.2 Germany

6.3.3 Italy

6.3.4 Spain

6.3.5 UK

6.4 Japan

6.5 Australia

6.6 South Korea

7 Competitive Assessment

7.1 Overview

8 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

8.1 Overview

8.2 Improved Cost-Effective Conjugate Vaccines

8.3 Vaccines with Improved Coverage

8.4 Consistent Immunization Across Demographics

8.5 Combatting Vaccine Hesitancy

9 Pipeline Assessment

9.1 Overview

9.2 Promising Vaccines in Clinical Development

9.2.1 V-114

9.2.2 20vPnC

9.2.3 NBP-606

9.3 Early-Stage Vaccines in Clinical Development

10 Current and Future Players

10.1 Overview

10.2 Trends in Corporate Strategy

10.3 Pfizer’s Portfolio Assessment

10.4 Merck’s Portfolio Assessment

11 Market Outlook

11.1 Global Markets

11.1.1 Forecast

11.1.2 Drivers and Barriers – Global Issues

11.2 US

11.2.1 Forecast

11.2.2 Key Events

11.2.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.3 5EU

11.3.1 Forecast

11.3.2 Key Events

11.3.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.4 Japan

11.4.1 Forecast

11.4.2 Key Events

11.4.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.5 Australia

11.5.1 Forecast

11.5.2 Key Events

11.5.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.6 South Korea

11.6.1 Forecast

11.6.2 Key Events

11.6.3 Drivers and Barriers

12 Appendix

12.1 Bibliography

12.2 Abbreviations

12.3 Methodology

12.3.1 Forecasting Methodology

12.3.2 Number of Doses

12.3.3 Drugs Included in Each Vaccine Class

12.3.4 Launch Dates

12.3.5 General Pricing Assumptions

12.3.6 Individual Drug Assumptions

12.3.7 Generic Erosion

12.3.8 Pricing of Pipeline Agents

12.4 Primary Research – KOLs Interviewed for This Report

12.4.1 KOLs

12.5 Primary Research – Prescriber Survey

12.6 About the Authors

12.6.1 Analyst

12.6.2 Therapy Area Director

12.6.3 Epidemiologist

12.6.4 Managing Epidemiologist

12.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

12.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

12.7 About GlobalData

12.8 Contact Us

12.9 Disclaimer

Table

Table 1: Pneumococcal Vaccines Key Metrics in the 9MM

Table 2: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Invasive Pneumococcal Disease

Table 3: 7MM, Pediatric Pneumococcal Vaccination Rate Trends (%)

Table 4: 6MM, Elderly Pneumococcal Vaccination Rate Trends (%)

Table 5: 3GM, Pediatric Pneumococcal Vaccination Rate Trends (%)

Table 6: 3GM, Elderly Pneumococcal Vaccination Rate Trends (%)

Table 7: Vaccination Guidelines for Pneumococcal Disease

Table 8: Leading Pneumococcal Vaccines

Table 9: Pfizer’s Pneumococcal Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 10: Merck’s Pneumococcal Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 11: Pneumococcal Vaccine Market – Global Drivers and Barriers, 2018–2028

Table 12: Key Events Impacting Sales for Pneumococcal Vaccines in the US, 2018–2028

Table 13: Pneumococcal Vaccines Market – Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2018–2028

Table 14: Key Events Impacting Sales for Pneumococcal Vaccines in the 5EU, 2018–2028

Table 15: Pneumococcal Vaccines Market – Drivers and Barriers in the 5EU, 2018–2028

Table 16: Key Events Impacting Sales for Pneumococcal Vaccines in Japan, 2018–2028

Table 17: Pneumococcal Vaccines Market – Global Drivers and Barriers in Japan, 2018–2028

Table 18: Key Events Impacting Sales for Pneumococcal Vaccines in Australia, 2018–2028

Table 19: Pneumococcal Vaccines Market – Global Drivers and Barriers in Australia, 2018–2028

Table 20: Key Events Impacting Sales for Pneumococcal Vaccines in South Korea, 2018–2028

Table 21: Pneumococcal Vaccines Market – Global Drivers and Barriers in South Korea, 2018–2028

Table 22: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for Pneumococcal Vaccines

Table 23: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country

Figures

Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for Pneumococcal Vaccines in 2018 and 2028

Figure 2: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in Pneumococcal Vaccines During the Forecast Period

Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pneumococcal Vaccines that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for the Treatment of Pneumococcal Vaccines During the Forecast Period

Figure 4: A Schematic Diagram of the Virulence Factors of S. pneumoniae

Figure 5: The Life Cycle of S. pneumoniae and the Pathogenesis of Pneumococcal Disease

Figure 6: 7MM, Diagnosed Incidence of IPD, Both Sexes, All Ages, 20082028

Figure 7: 3GM, Diagnosed Incidence of IPD, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2008–2028

Figure 8: 7MM, Sources Used for the Pneumococcal Vaccinated Pediatric Population

Figure 9: 6MM, Sources Used for the Pneumococcal Vaccinated Elderly Population

Figure 10: 7MM, Sources Used for the Diagnosed Incident Cases of IPD

Figure 11: 3GM, Sources Used for the Pneumococcal Vaccinated Pediatric Population

Figure 12: 3GM, Sources Used for the Pneumococcal Vaccinated Elderly Population

Figure 13: 3GM, Sources Used for the Diagnosed Incident Cases of IPD

Figure 14: 7MM, Pneumococcal Vaccinated Pediatric Population, Both Sexes, 2018

Figure 15: 3GM, Pneumococcal Vaccinated Pediatric Population, Both Sexes, 2018

Figure 16: 6MM, Pneumococcal Vaccinated Elderly Population, Both Sexes, 2018

Figure 17: 3GM, Pneumococcal Vaccinated Elderly Population, Both Sexes, 2018

Figure 18: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of IPD, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2018

Figure 19: 3GM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of IPD, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2018

Figure 20: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of IPD, Men and Women, 2018

Figure 21: 3GM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of IPD, Men and Women, N, 2018

Figure 22: Pneumococcal Vaccination Schedule for the 9MM

Figure 23: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in Pneumococcal Vaccines

Figure 24: Overview of the Development Pipeline for Pneumococcal Vaccines

Figure 25: Key Phase II/III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for Pneumococcal Vaccination in the 9MM During the Forecast Period

Figure 26: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for the Treatment of Pneumococcal Disease During the Forecast Period

Figure 27: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in Pneumococcal Vaccination During the Forecast Period

Figure 28: Global (9MM) Sales Forecast by Country for Pneumococcal Vaccines in 2018 and 2028

Figure 29: Sales Forecast by Class for Pneumococcal Vaccines in the US in 2018 and 2028

Figure 30: Sales Forecast by Class for Pneumococcal Vaccines in the 5EU in 2018 and 2028

Figure 31: Sales Forecast by Class for Pneumococcal Vaccines in Japan in 2018 and 2028

Figure 32: Sales Forecast by Class for Pneumococcal Vaccines in Australia in 2018 and 2028

Figure 33: Sales Forecast by Class for Pneumococcal Vaccines in South Korea in 2018 and 2028

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