Russia Power Market Trends and Analysis by Capacity, Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Regulations, Key Players and Forecast to 2035

This report discusses the power market structure of Russia and provides historical and forecast numbers for capacity, generation, and consumption up to 2035. Detailed analysis of the country’s power market regulatory structure, competitive landscape, and a list of major power plants are provided. The report also gives a snapshot of the power sector in the country on broad parameters of macroeconomics, supply security, generation infrastructure, transmission and distribution infrastructure, electricity import and export scenario, degree of competition, regulatory scenario, and future potential. An analysis of the deals in the country’s power sector is also included in the report.

Thermal power will continue to dominate annual generation in Russia till 2030

In 2020, annual generation through thermal power sources held a share of more than 55% in total generation. Russia has been slow in the adoption of renewable sources for power generation. By 2030, power generation from renewable sources will contribute a share of only 1.2% in total generation. Due to the availability of cheap conventional energy sources, the country has not been focusing on the development of renewable power sources. The electricity demand in Russia is expected to grow from 753.3 TWh in 2020 to 778.6 TWh in 2030. With increase in power demand and slow growth of renewable technology, the country will have to significantly depend on thermal sources for power generation.

How is the Russian power market structured?

In Russia, electricity regulation framework is defined in significant number of legislative acts. The primary regulation such as Federal law No. 35-FZ provides the general framework for the regulation of the electricity market in Russia. Similarly, Federal law No. 36-FZ outlines how the power market should function during the power sector’s transition from state control to market regulation. The Ministry of Energy is the regulatory authority primarily responsible for the Russian electric power sector. It is also responsible for implementation of state policy in the power sector and the elaboration of regulatory acts for that purpose. Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) is responsible for establishment of prices. FAS also supervises compliance with anti-monopoly regulations applicable to the electric power market.

Who are the key players in the Russian power market?

In 2020, the power generation segment in the country was dominated by Gazprom Group followed by RusHydro, ROSATOM, Inter RAO UES, and Fortum.

Russian power market, by key companies

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Where are the opportunities in the Russian power market?

The Russian electricity generation infrastructure is old and uses obsolete technology that results in low plant-load factors. The need to refurbish its aging plants is obvious, and evidently accounts for a huge investment opportunity. A specific opportunity for foreign companies in the power sector is supplying newer energy-efficient technology for power generation from various sources, and pollution-control equipment for thermal power generation plants. Given the vast size of the power generation infrastructure, there exists a huge investment opportunity in this area.

What are the challenges faced by the Russian power market?

High level of government monopoly in the power market is deemed to be the most challenging factor hindering the growth of the market. The Russian government continues to hold a large influence on the power sector. The entire transmission sector is still owned by the government, and the largest power generation companies in the country are also state-owned. While the reorganization of the power sector was ended in 2011, including the endeavor to privatize it, it has not been fully realized and a lot remains to be achieved. Continued overarching government influence on the power sector means that the investment that is sorely needed to replace fast-obsolescing technology is difficult to come by.

How has COVID-19 affected the Russian power market?

In Russia, the COVID-19 outbreak was detected in early March 2020. The country implemented lockdown by the end of March to curb the spread of the pandemic. Despite the lockdown, COVID-19 cases rapidly increased in the country. Further, the implementation of lockdown derailed the economic growth in the country as major non-essential activities were shut down.

With respect to power sector in Russia, the power consumption in the country declined by 2.2% in 2020 as compared to 2019 as many services are shutdown with multiple sectors in the country not operating at full capacity. Power generation in the country also observed a decline of 3.6% compared to 2019. Further, the spread of pandemic also impacted the power plant operations. Some thermal power plants halted or delayed their maintenance as the pandemic prevented the owners from bringing in foreign specialists due to travel restrictions.

Moreover, the spread of pandemic also impacted hydropower and wind projects that were under construction. The Russian Wind Industry Federation announced in April 2020 that there may be a delay in commissioning under construction wind farms in the country as companies were experiencing labor shortage due to travel restrictions. Such incidents are expected to impact the future hydropower and wind capacity of the country. In addition to this, the spread of COVID-19 pandemic has also disrupted supply chain and logistic in the power sector leading to project delays. As a result of this, in May 2020, many investors in the Russian renewable energy industry sent out notices of force majeure.

Market report scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the power market in Russia and contains the following sections:

• The executive summary captures the key trends in the country’s power market.
• The “Russia Power Market, Snapshot” section provides a snapshot of the key parameters that affect the country’s power sector, as well as key points about the country’s power market including opportunities, challenges, and the impact of COVID-19.
• The “Russia Power Market, Market Analysis” section provides the market structure, generation market share, deals, and demand structure.
• The “Russia Power Market, Regulatory Scenario” section details the regulations and policies in the country’s power sector.
• The “Russia Power Market, Capacity and Generation” section provides information on cumulative installed capacity and annual generation trends, by individual generation source.
• The “Russia Power Market, Transmission and Distribution Overview” section discusses the power T&D infrastructure, electricity import and export, and grid interconnections.
• The “Russia Power Market, Major Generating Companies” section discusses the major electricity generating companies in the country.

Scope

Snapshot of the country’s power sector across parameters – macroeconomics, supply security, generation infrastructure, transmission infrastructure, electricity import and export scenario, degree of competition, regulatory scenario, and future potential of the power sector.

Statistics for installed capacity, generation, and consumption from 2010 to 2022, and forecast for the next 13 years to 2035

Capacity, generation, and major power plants by technology

Data on leading active and upcoming power plants

Information on transmission and distribution infrastructure, and electricity imports and exports

Policy and regulatory framework governing the market

Detailed analysis of top market participants, including market share analysis and SWOT analysis

Reasons to Buy

Identify opportunities and plan strategies by having a strong understanding of the investment opportunities in the country’s power sector

Identify key factors driving investment opportunities in the country’s power sector

Facilitate decision-making based on strong historic and forecast data

Develop strategies based on the latest regulatory events

Position yourself to gain the maximum advantage of the industry’s growth potential

Identify key partners and business development avenues

Identify key strengths and weaknesses of important market participants

Respond to your competitors’ business structure, strategy, and prospects