The Future of the Russian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

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Published: May 11, 2018 Report Code: GD-DF0496MR-ST

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The Future of the Russian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023, published by Strategic Defense Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of the Russian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following –
– The Russian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Russian defense industry during 2018-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
– Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
– Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Russian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
– Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
– Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
– Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Russian defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Scope

– Russia’s defense expenditure in 2018 values US$51.9 billion, recording a CAGR of -5.79% during the historic period, and it is expected to cumulatively value US$308.5 billion over the forecast period. Russia has the world’s longest land border, which it shares with 16 other countries, along with maritime borders with Japan, via the sea of Okhotsk, and the US state of Alaska, across the Bering Strait. The country places the utmost importance on the protection of its borders and critical infrastructure, which covers a large geographical area that is rich in natural resources.

– During the historic period, the Russian Government allocated an average of 50.7% of its total defense budget to capital expenditure and the remaining 49.3% to revenue expenditure. Capital expenditure is expected to increase during the forecast period to an average of 58.2%, due to the adoption of State armaments program 2018-2027 in the year 2017.

– The MoD is expected to invest in land based ISR, Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP), and airborne C4ISR capabilities.

Reasons to Buy

– This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Russian defense industry market trends for the coming five years

– The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

– Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

– A deep qualitative analysis of the Russian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

United Aircraft Corporation (UAC)
Sukhoi
Irkut Corporation
Rostec
Uralvagonzavod (UVZ)
Splav
KBP Instrument Design Bureau
V.A.Degtyarev Plant
Kalashnikov Concern
Oboronprom Corporation
United Engine Corporation (UEC)
Tactical Missiles Corporation
Almaz-Antey
Kurganmashzavod
United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC)

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Introduction 10

1.1 What is this Report About? 10

1.2 Definitions 10

1.3 Summary Methodology 12

1.4 About Strategic Defense Intelligence 13

2 Executive Summary 14

3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 18

3.1 Current Market Scenario 19

3.1.1 Primary Threat Perception 19

3.1.2 Military Doctrine & Strategy 20

3.1.3 Military Fleet Size 40

3.1.4 Procurement Programs 46

3.1.5 Top Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 52

3.1.6 Social, Political and Economic Environment and Support for Defense Projects 53

3.1.7 Political and Strategic Alliances 54

3.2 Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 56

3.2.1 Russia’s defense budget to grow at a CAGR of

5.86% to value US$68.9 billion by 2023 56

3.2.2 Military modernization and defense exports to drive defense expenditure over the forecast period 59

3.2.3 Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to average

3.56% over the forecast period 62

3.3 Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 64

3.3.1 The majority of Russia’s defense budget is allocated to revenue expenditure 64

3.3.2 Capital expenditure is expected to record a CAGR of

6.21% during the forecast period 66

3.3.3 Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period 69

3.4 Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 70

3.4.1 Russian homeland security expenditure forecast to reach US$43.4 billion by 2023 70

3.4.2 Border security and the fight against cyber-attacks are the main factors encouraging growth in the homeland security market 72

3.4.3 The Terrorism Heat Map considers Russia a “highly affected” region 74

3.4.4 Russia faces a “high risk” from acts of terrorism 75

3.4.5 Russia faces a significant threat from terrorists 77

3.5 Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 78

3.5.1 Russia’s defense budget is expected to grow significantly during the forecast period 78

3.5.2 Russia is the world’s third largest defense spender 80

3.5.3 Russia allocated

3.4% of its GDP to defense in 2018 81

3.6 Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 82

3.6.1 Top Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) – Projections over 2018-2023 82

3.6.2 Land Based C4ISR 83

3.6.3 Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) – Physical Security 85

3.6.4 Airborne C4ISR 87

4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 88

4.1 Import Market Dynamics 89

4.1.1 The country’s defense imports are low owing to a developed indigenous sector 89

4.1.2 Ukraine was the key defense supplier to Russia 91

4.1.3 Aircraft and engines were the key defense imports during 2013-2017 92

4.2 Export Market Dynamics 93

4.2.1 Russia’s exports witnessed a decline during 2013-2017 93

4.2.2 India, China, and Vietnam are Russia’s main defense equipment purchasers 94

4.2.3 Aircraft and ships account for the majority of Russia’s defense exports 95

5 Industry Dynamics 96

5.1 Five Forces Analysis 96

5.1.1 Bargaining Power of Supplier: Medium to High 97

5.1.2 Bargaining Power of Buyer: High 97

5.1.3 Barrier to Entry: High 97

5.1.4 Intensity of Rivalry: High 97

5.1.5 Threat of Substitution: High 97

6 Market Entry Strategy 98

6.1 Market Regulation 98

6.1.1 Entry into the defense sector is highly regulated 98

6.2 Market Entry Route 99

6.2.1 Budgeting Process 100

6.2.2 Procurement Policy and Process 102

6.3 Key Challenges 103

6.3.1 Russian government’s aversion to Western defense technology 103

7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 104

7.1 Competitive Landscape Overview 104

7.1.1 The domestic industry is consolidating to provide better focus and fund allocation 106

7.1.2 Defense sector is dominated by domestic firms, with no foreign presence 106

7.2 Key Domestic Companies 107

7.2.1 United Aircraft Corporation – Overview 107

7.2.2 United Aircraft Corporation – Major Products 107

7.2.3 United Aircraft Corporation – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 107

7.2.4 United Aircraft Corporation – Alliances 109

7.2.5 United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) – Recent Contract Awards 110

7.2.6 United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) – Financial Analysis 111

7.2.7 Sukhoi – Overview 113

7.2.8 Sukhoi – Major Products 113

7.2.9 Sukhoi- Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 114

7.2.10 Sukhoi – Alliances 116

7.2.11 Sukhoi: Recent Contract Awards 116

7.2.12 Irkut Corporation – Overview 118

7.2.13 Irkut Corporation – Major Products 118

7.2.14 Irkut Corporation – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 119

7.2.15 Irkut Corporation – Alliances 119

7.2.16 Irkut Corporation – Recent Contract Wins 120

7.2.17 Irkut Corporation – Financial Analysis 121

7.2.18 Rostec – Overview 123

7.2.19 Rostec – Major Products 124

7.2.20 Rostec- Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 124

7.2.21 Rostec – Alliances 125

7.2.22 Rostec: Recent Contract Awards 126

7.2.23 Uralvagonzavod – Overview 127

7.2.24 Uralvagonzavod – Major Products 127

7.2.25 Uralvagonzavod – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 127

7.2.26 Uralvagonzavod – Alliances 128

7.2.27 Uralvagonzavod – Recent Contract Wins 129

7.2.28 Splav – Overview 130

7.2.29 Splav – Major Products 130

7.2.30 Splav – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 130

7.2.31 Splav – Alliances 130

7.2.32 KBP Instrument Design Bureau – Overview 131

7.2.33 KBP Instrument Design Bureau – Major Products 131

7.2.34 KBP Instrument Design Bureau – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 132

7.2.35 KBP Instrument Design Bureau – Recent Contract Wins 133

7.2.36 V.A.Degtyarev Plant – Overview 134

7.2.37 V.A.Degtyarev Plant – Major Products 135

7.2.38 Kalashnikov Concern – Overview 136

7.2.39 Kalashnikov Concern – Major Products 136

7.2.40 Kalashnikov Concern – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 137

7.2.41 Oboronprom Corporation – Overview 138

7.2.42 Oboronprom Corporation – Major Products 138

7.2.43 Oboronprom Corporation – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 139

7.2.44 Oboronprom Corporation – Alliances 140

7.2.45 Oboronprom Corporation – Recent Contract Wins 140

7.2.46 United Engine Corporation (UEC) – Overview 142

7.2.47 United Engine Corporation (UEC) – Major Products 142

7.2.48 United Engine Corporation (UEC) – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 142

7.2.49 Tactical Missiles Corporation: Overview 143

7.2.50 Tactical Missiles Corporation – Major Products 144

7.2.51 Tactical Missiles Corporation – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 144

7.2.52 Tactical Missiles Corporation – Alliances 145

7.2.53 Tactical Missiles Corporation – Recent Contract Wins 145

7.2.54 Almaz-Antey – Overview 146

7.2.55 Almaz-Antey – Major Products 146

7.2.56 Almaz-Antey – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 146

7.2.57 Almaz-Antey – Alliances 147

7.2.58 Almaz-Antey – Recent Contract Wins 147

7.2.59 Kurganmashzavod – Overview 148

7.2.60 Kurganmashzavod – Major Products and Services 148

7.2.61 Kurganmashzavod – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 149

7.2.62 Kurganmashzavod – Alliances 149

7.2.63 Kurganmashzavod – Recent Contract Wins 150

7.2.64 United Shipbuilding Corporation – Overview 151

7.2.65 United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC) – Major Products and Services 152

7.2.66 United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC) – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 153

7.2.67 United Shipbuilding Corporation – Recent Contract Wins 154

8 Business Environment and Country Risk 155

8.1 Economic Performance 155

8.1.1 GDP Per Capita, US$ 155

8.1.2 GDP (current US$ Billion) 156

8.1.3 Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion) 157

8.1.4 Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion) 158

8.1.5 Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion) 159

8.1.6 LCU per US$ (Period Average) 160

8.1.7 Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion) 161

8.1.8 Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP) 162

8.1.9 Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP (LCU) 163

8.1.10 Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP 164

8.1.11 Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP 165

8.1.12 Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP 166

8.1.13 Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP 167

8.1.14 Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion) 168

8.1.15 Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP 169

8.1.16 Mining, Manufacturing, and Utilities Output (LCU Billion) 170

9 Appendix 171

9.1 About SDI 171

9.2 Disclaimer 171

Table

List of Tables

Table 1: Key Electronic Warfare Systems 21

Table 2: Key Long Range Ballistic Missile Programs 23

Table 3: Ongoing Nuclear Delivery Platform Programs 25

Table 4: Ongoing Naval Modernization Programs 28

Table 5: Key Tactical Attack Weapon Systems and Precision Guided Munitions Projects 30

Table 6: Key Air Force Modernization Programs 32

Table 7: Key Air Defense Programs 33

Table 8: Key Air Force Transport Aircraft Modernization Programs 35

Table 9: Key Programs for Development of Unmanned Systems 36

Table 10: Key Army Modernization Programs 38

Table 11: Russian Ground Forces Strength 40

Table 12: Russian Aerospace Defense Forces Strength 42

Table 13: Russian Naval Forces Strength 44

Table 14: Russian – On-going Development and Procurement Programs 46

Table 15: Russian – Future Procurement Programs 49

Table 16: Top Russian Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 52

Table 17: Russian Defense Expenditure (RUB Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 57

Table 18: Russian GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 62

Table 19: Russian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 65

Table 20: Russian Defense Capital Expenditure (RUB Billion and US$ Billion), 2014-2023 67

Table 21: Russian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 69

Table 22: Russian Homeland Security Expenditure (RUB Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 70

Table 23: Terrorism Index, 2018 75

Table 24: Benchmarking with Key Markets: 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 78

Table 25: Top Russian Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) – 2018-2023 82

Table 26: Russian Budget Formation Timetable 100

Table 27: Top Defense Suppliers in The US Defense Industry – By Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 104

Table 28: Competitive Landscape of the Russian Defense Industry 105

Table 29: United Aircraft Corporation – Major Products 107

Table 30: United Aircraft Corporation – Alliances 109

Table 31: United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) – Recent Contract Wins 110

Table 32: Sukhoi – Major Products 113

Table 33: Sukhoi – Alliances 116

Table 34: Sukhoi – Recent Contract Wins 116

Table 35: Irkut Corporation – Major Products 118

Table 36: Irkut Corporation – Alliances 119

Table 37: Irkut Corporation – Recent Contract Wins 120

Table 38: Rostec – Major Products 124

Table 39: Sukhoi – Alliances 125

Table 40: Rostec – Recent Contract Wins 126

Table 41: Uralvagonzavod – Major Products 127

Table 42: Uralvagonzavod – Alliances 128

Table 43: Uralvagonzavod – Recent Contract Wins 129

Table 44: Splav – Major Products 130

Table 45: Splav – Alliances 130

Table 46: KBP Instrument Design Bureau – Major Products 131

Table 47: KBP Instrument Design Bureau – recent contract wins 133

Table 48: V.A.Degtyarev Plant – Major Products 135

Table 49: Kalashnikov Concern – Major Products 136

Table 50: Oboronprom Corporation – Major Products 138

Table 51: Oboronprom Corporation – Alliances 140

Table 52: Oboronprom Corporation – Recent Contract Wins 140

Table 53: United Engine Corporation (UEC) – Major Products 142

Table 54: Tactical Missiles Corporation – Major Products 144

Table 55: Tactical Missiles Corporation – Alliances 145

Table 56: Tactical Missiles Corporation – Recent Contract Wins 145

Table 57: Almaz-Antey – Major Products 146

Table 58: Almaz-Antey – Alliances 147

Table 59: Almaz-Antey – Recent Contract Wins 147

Table 60: Kurganmashzavod – Major Products and Services 148

Table 61: Kurganmashzavod – Alliances 149

Table 62: Kurganmashzavod – Recent Contract Wins 150

Table 63: United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC) – Major Products and Services 152

Table 64: United Shipbuilding Corporation – Recent Contract Wins 154

Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1: Russian Defense Expenditure (RUB Billion), 2014-2023 57

Figure 2: Russian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 58

Figure 3: Russian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 63

Figure 4: Russian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 65

Figure 5: Russian Defense Capital Expenditure (RUB Billion), 2014-2023 67

Figure 6: Russian Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 68

Figure 7: Russian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 69

Figure 8: Russian Homeland Security Budget (RUB Billion), 2014-2023 71

Figure 9: Russian Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 71

Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 74

Figure 11: Terrorism Index 77

Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 79

Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 and 2023 80

Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 81

Figure 15: Land Based C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 84

Figure 16: Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) – Physical Security Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 86

Figure 17: Airborne C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 87

Figure 18: Top Russian Defense Procurements in Terms of Their Supplier Relationships 88

Figure 19: Russian Defense Import Trend, 2013-2017 (TIV values) 90

Figure 20: Russian Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017 91

Figure 21: Russian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017 92

Figure 22: Russian Defense Export Trend, 2013-2017 (TIV values) 93

Figure 23: Russian Defense Exports by Country (%), 2013-2017 94

Figure 24: Russian Defense Exports by Category (%), 2013-2017 95

Figure 25: Industry Dynamics – Porter’s Five Forces Analysis 96

Figure 26: United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) – Revenue Trend Analysis (RUB Billion), 2012-2016 111

Figure 27: United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) – Operating Profit Trend Analysis (RUB Billion), 2012-2016 112

Figure 28: United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) – Net Profit Trend Analysis (RUB Billion), 2012-2016 112

Figure 29: Irkut Corporation – Revenue Trend Analysis (RUB Billion), 2012-2016 121

Figure 30: Irkut Corporation – Operating Profit (RUB Million), 2012-2016 121

Figure 31: Irkut Corporation – Net Profit Trend Analysis (RUB Million), 2012-2016 122

Figure 32: GDP Per Capita in US$, 2015-2025 155

Figure 33: GDP (Current US$ Billion), 2015-2025 156

Figure 34: Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 157

Figure 35: Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 158

Figure 36: Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2008-2013 159

Figure 37: LCU Per US$ (Period Average), 2015-2024 160

Figure 38: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 161

Figure 39: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012 162

Figure 40: Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP (LCU), 2005-2012 163

Figure 41: Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 164

Figure 42: Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 165

Figure 43: Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 166

Figure 44: Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 167

Figure 45: Foreign Direct Investment, Net (BoP, Current US$ Billion), 2005-2014 168

Figure 46: Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 169

Figure 47: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 170

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