United Arab Emirates (UAE) Outlook 2021 – Opportunities and Challenges in the Middle East’s most Dynamic Market after COVID-19 – MEED Insights

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As the world recovers from the ravages of covid-19 pandemic in 2021, the UAE will celebrate its 50th anniversary. It also host Expo 2020 Dubai. With one of the most diversified economies among regional oil producers, vast sovereign wealth and easy lines of credit, the UAE already had an economy that was better positioned to roll with the punches of the Covid-19 crisis than many others in the region and around the world.

While the global pandemic has slashed oil prices and devastated specific industries – especially aviation – the UAE has responded decisively to the crisis. It has curbed case numbers, enforced basic Covid-19 hygiene, ramped up test capacity, and invested heavily in test and vaccine development. The no-nonsense approach has been confidence building, despite the inherent vulnerabilities of the UAE economy to the Covid-19 pandemic, with deep impacts to the finance, travel and hospitality sectors. The UAE’s financial sector, which will be pivotal to future growth, has been well supported.

The government’s efforts to move back to a new economic normality swiftly but safely is also positive. Economic activity shows signs of improving, driven in large part by domestic demand as the country’s large expatriate population gets back to spending after months of restrictions on everyday activities. Project activity, while reduced, has continued to rumble along in the background, with activity in upstream energy and the utilities sector providing ongoing opportunities for contractors.

Project opportunities

With some $868bn worth of projects planned or underway, and about $132bn under execution, the UAE is the second largest projects market in the MENA region. The big challenge for the UAE’s projects market over the coming year in the wake of Covid-19 outbreak will be dealing with the paradox of government stimulus spending coupled with a drive to cut costs and project spending. In this challenging environment firms will have to be smart in order to prosper. Selecting the right clients, specialising in niche sectors, and introducing novel technologies are all tools companies can harness in order to stay ahead of the competition.

Although there are undoubtable challenges in the short term, the long term prognosis is still healthy. Regardless of what happens, the UAE market will remain one of the largest projects markets in the region. The pipeline of projects in the UAE sits at more than $672bn. Of this total, $417.7bn is for construction project, $82.9bn for transport projects, and $95.3bn in oil and gas. The pipeline consists of $63.7bn projects in bidding, $492.9bn in design or FEED, and $114.8bn under study

Post-Covid recovery

When travel resumes, even if international tourist traffic and inbound visitors remain curbed, the role of the UAE’s airports as transit hubs for business and leisure travellers should ensure a ramp up in passenger volumes again, potentially ahead of the global curve. As other regional economies continue to wobble, the UAE will remain an attractive place to do business. The postponement of Expo 2020 Dubai increasingly looks like a boon that will allow Dubai to ride a wave of post-Covid-19 enthusiasm for new business opportunities augmented rather than diminished by the global pandemic.

The signing of the Abraham Accords in September 2020, and the normalisation of relations between the UAE and Israel, the region’s two leading players in technology, introduces the potential of previously unexplored opportunities in areas such as technology, tourism, security, healthcare and water and food security and adds a completely new dimension to the UAE market.

Scope

Written by MEED, the Middle East market experts within the GlobalData Group, “UAE Outlook 2021” is this latest research report from MEED Insight. It examines the outlook for the UAE market in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic and the outlook for projects and investment in the region’s most dynamic economy.

The report is a powerful resource for anyone seeking to find opportunities, understand risks and set strategy in the UAE.

The report is of very high-value to anyone seeking to identify opportunities, understand risks and set strategy in the Middle East’s most dynamic and innovative projects market, and it provides a comprehensive guide for companies seeking to work in oil & gas, petrochemicals, power, construction, water, manufacturing, renewables and transport.

Reasons to Buy

  • Detailed analysis of the opportunities for business and projects in UAE
  • Comprehensive review of the impact of Covid-19 on the UAE market
  • Outlook for policy and investment in the kingdom
  • Project opportunities with client and procurement details
  • Investment drivers and client spending plans
  • Understand risks and set strategy in the UAE market
  • Complete assessment of the economic outlook for the UAE
  • Updates on the Vision 2021 and Centennial 2071 development visions
  • Analysis of all major business sectors in the UAE including: oil & gas; power & water; construction, petrochemicals, transport and renewables
  • Detailed analysis of the markets in each of the UAE’s seven emirates

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. The UAE and COVID-19

2. Historical Background

3. Politics

3.1 Foreign relations

3.2 Domestic politics

3.3 The seven emirates

4. Economy

4.1 Economic performance and oil

5. Projects market

5.1 Overview

5.2 Key trends

5.3 Cancelled/On hold projects

5.4 Leading clients

5.5 Leading contractors

5.6 Future pipeline

6. Oil and Gas

6.1 Overview

6.2 Abu Dhabi

6.3 Dubai and the northern emirates

6.4 Upstream oil

6.5 Gas

6.6 Refining

6.7 Petrochemicals

6.8 Fundraising and capex plan

6.9 Projects market

6.10 Leading contractors

7. Industry

7.1 Overview

7.2 Aluminium

7.3 Steel

7.4 Cement

7.5 Selected projects

7.6 Leading contractors

8. Power

8.1 Market overview

8.2 Industry structure

8.3 Supply and demand trends

8.4 Demand side management

8.5 Fuel and alternative energy

8.6 Power generation projects

8.7 Leading contractors

8.8 Abu Dhabi

8.9 Dubai

8.10 Northern Emirates

9. Renewables

9.1 Market overview

9.2 Industry structure

9.3 Supply and demand trends

9.4 Renewables plans

9.5 Fuel and alternative energy

9.6 Renewable power generation projects

9.7 Leading contractors

9.8 Abu Dhabi

9.9 Dubai

9.10 Northern Emirates

10. Desalination

10.1 Market overview

10.2 Market Structure

10.3 Demand

10.4 Water supply

10.5 Projects

11. Wastewater

11.1 Market overview

11.2 Market structure

11.3 Wastewater treatment

11.4 Projects market

12. Construction

12.1 UAE construction in 2020

12.2 Dubai

12.3 Abu Dhabi

12.4 Northern Emirates

13. Transport

13.1 Impact of COVID-19 on the UAE transport industry

13.2 Rail

13.3 Metro/light rail

13.4 Airports

13.5 Ports

13.6 Roads

Disclaimer

Table

List of Tables

Table 1: The emirates of the UAE

Table 2: Members of the UAE Council of Ministers

Table 3: Abu Dhabi’s oil and gas field concessions

Table 4: UAE key economic indicators

Table 5: UAE oil production, 2009−19

Table 6: Real GDP Growth (UAE vs Global average), 2009−19

Table 7: UAE Consumer Price Index (2009−2019)

Table 8: UAE hydrocarbons export revenues and oil price, 2009−18

Table 9: UAE exports, imports and current account, 2010−2019

Table 10: UAE consolidated government revenue, expenditure and balance 2015−19

Table 11: UAE total bank assets, December 2016−December 2019 (AEDbn)

Table 12: UAE Key banking indicators December 2019 (AEDm)

Table 13: Biggest contracts awarded in 2019

Table 14: Largest projects due for award in 2020

Table 15: Top UAE brownfield projects in pipeline

Table 16: Top 10 countries by oil and gas reserves at the end of 2018

Table 17: UAE upstream licensing rounds

Table 18: Adnoc upcoming projects

Table 19: Major oil and gas operating companies

Table 20: Abu Dhabi oil producers, 2018

Table 21: UAE refineries by capacity, 2017

Table 22: Projected oil storage capacity in 2018

Table 23: Main construction packages on Borouge 3

Table 24: Selected UAE oil and gas projects under execution

Table 25: Selected unawarded hydrocarbons projects in the UAE

Table 26: Selected UAE industrial projects awarded and completed since 2014

Table 27: Aluminium smelters in the UAE

Table 28: Selected steel production plants in the UAE

Table 29: GCC countries ranking by installed cement capacity, 2019

Table 30: UAE cement producers

Table 31: UAE cement plants location

Table 32: Selected active UAE industrial projects

Table 33: UAE power sector key facts, 2019

Table 34: UAE, Power generation projects (excluding renewables) under construction ($m)

Table 35: UAE, Upcoming power generation projects (excluding renewables) ($m)

Table 36: UAE, Leading contractors by value ($m)

Table 37: Abu Dhabi power sector key facts, 2019

Table 38: Abu Dhabi selected major power plant contract awards, 2010−19

Table 39: Developers and EPC contractors interested for Fujairah (F3) power project

Table 40: Abu Dhabi, Growth of principal demand drivers (GW)

Table 41: Abu Dhabi leading contractors by value ($m)

Table 42: Dubai power sector key facts, 2019

Table 43: Dubai thermal power plants

Table 44: Selected major EPC power projects, 2005−18

Table 45: Dubai upcoming power generation projects

Table 46: Dubai key T&D infrastructure, 2017−19

Table 47: Dubai leading contractors by value ($m)

Table 48: Fewa installed capacity

Table 49: Sewa installed and available generating capacity, 2018* (MW)

Table 50: Northern Emirates leading contractors by value ($m)

Table 51: UAE renewables sector key facts, 2019

Table 52: UAE, Renewable power generation projects under construction ($m)

Table 53: UAE, Upcoming renewable power generation projects ($m)

Table 54: UAE leading renewables sector contractors by value ($m)

Table 55: Abu Dhabi renewables sector key facts, 2019

Table 56: Developers interested in 2GW Al-Dhafra solar power project, Abu Dhabi

Table 57: Abu Dhabi renewables leading contractors by value ($m)

Table 58: Dubai renewables sector key facts, 2019

Table 59: Dubai renewable power plants

Table 60: Dubai upcoming renewables power generation projects by value

Table 61: Dubai renewables leading contractors by value ($m)

Table 62: Northern Emirates renewables leading contractors by value ($m)

Table 63: UAE water sector key facts

Table 64: Dubai land used for agriculture (hectares)

Table 65: FEWA water imports, 2010−14

Table 66: Recent underway and planned desalination awards by FEWA, 2018−21

Table 67: UAE upcoming private water & desalination projects by value, 2020−21

Table 68: UAE upcoming water & desalination projects by value

Table 69: Dubai volume of wastewater discharge (mcm) by source, 2018

Table 70: Quantity of wastewater inflow by region (mcm)

Table 71: Quantity of treated wastewater by region (mcm)

Table 72: Quantity of treated wastewater reuse by region (mcm)

Table 73: Total Conventional Wastewater Treatment Plants Capacity by Region (mcm)

Table 74: Total Non-Conventional Wastewater Treatment Plants Capacity by Region (mcm)

Table 75: Mean annual concentration of main pollutants in wastewater before and after treatment pollutant – 2018

Table 76: Abu Dhabi existing sewage treatment plants in operation

Table 77: ADSSC’s capital spending programme 2015−19 (AED ‘000

Table 78: ADSSC capital spending programme (AED ‘000), 2016−18

Table 79: Capital spending on treatment capacity (AED ‘000), 2016−17

Table 80: Regulatory compliance spending requirements (AED ‘000), 2016−17

Table 81: UAE upcoming wastewater treatment projects by value, 2020−21

Table 82: Biggest contract awards in UAE in 2018 and 2019

Table 83: Selected major construction contracts due for award in 2020

Table 84: Leading contractors by value of contracts under execution

Table 85: Key clients in the UAE by value of projects under execution

Table 86: Biggest construction contract awards in Dubai in 2019

Table 87: Selected major contracts due for award in 2020

Table 88: Leading contractors in Dubai by value of contracts under execution

Table 89: Key clients in Dubai by value of projects under execution

Table 90: Consultants and contractors appointed on the Expo site

Table 91: Selected real estate projects due for award

Table 92: Top Unawarded hospitality projects in Dubai

Table 93: Dubai Housing schemes under construction

Table 94: Unawarded education projects in Dubai

Table 95: Largest road projects under construction in Dubai by value

Table 96: Biggest construction contract awards in Abu Dhabi in 2018 and 2019

Table 97: Selected major construction contracts due for award in 2020

Table 98: Leading contractors in Abu Dhabi by value of construction contracts under execution

Table 99: Key clients in Abu Dhabi by value of projects under execution

Table 100: Selected real estate projects due for award

Table 101: Unawarded education projects in Abu Dhabi

Table 102: Largest road projects under construction in Abu Dhabi by value

Table 103: Biggest contract awards in Northern Emirates in 2019

Table 104: Selected major constrcution contracts due for award in 2020

Table 105: Leading contractors in Northern Emirates by value of contracts under execution

Table 106: Key clients in Northern Emirates by value of projects under execution

Table 107: Real estate projects due for award in the coming years

Table 108: Road projects under construction in Ajman by value

Table 109: Road projects under construction in Fujairah by value

Table 110: Selected real estate projects due for award in the coming years

Table 111: Unawarded hospitality projects in Ras Al-Khaimah

Table 112: Unawarded road projects in Ras Al-Khaimah by value

Table 113: Real estate projects due for award in the coming years

Table 114: Unawarded hospitality projects in Sharjah

Table 115: Unawarded road projects in Sharjah by value

Table 116: Real estate projects due for award in the coming years

Table 117: Biggest contract awards in UAE in 2018 and 2019

Table 118: Leading contractors in the UAE by value of transport contracts under execution

Table 119: Leading clients in the UAE by value of transport contracts under execution

Table 120: Selected major transport contracts due for award in 2020

Table 121: Largest transport projects under construction in Abu Dhabi by value

Table 122: Selected major contracts due for award in 2020

Table 123: Largest transport projects under construction in Dubai by value

Table 124: Selected major contracts due for award in 2020

Table 125: Selected major contracts due for award in 2020

Table 126: Largest road projects under construction in Dubai by value

Table 127: Largest road projects under construction in Abu Dhabi by value

Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1: COVID-19 cases in the GCC region since March 2020

Figure 2: UAE oil production (thousand b/d), 2009−19

Figure 3: UAE Real GDP Growth, 2009−19

Figure 4: UAE inflation, 2009−2019 (%)

Figure 5: UAE exports, imports and current account ($bn), 2010−2019

Figure 6: UAE total bank assets, bank credits and bank deposits (AED bn), 2016−2019

Figure 7: GCC contract awards, 2010−19 ($m)

Figure 8: UAE contract awards, 2010−19 ($m)

Figure 9: UAE contract awards by sector, 2010−19 ($m)

Figure 10: UAE contract awards by sector, 2010−19 ($m)

Figure 11: Contract awards by sector, 2017−19 ($m)

Figure 12: UAE contract awards by emirate, 2010−19 ($m)

Figure 13: Dubai contract awards by sector, 2010−19 ($m)

Figure 14: Abu Dhabi contract awards by sector, 2010−19 ($m)

Figure 15: Value of contract awards by Dubai vs Abu Dhabi, 2010−19 ($m)

Figure 16: UAE projects cancelled and on hold by sector

Figure 17: Most active clients by work under execution ($m)

Figure 18: Most active contractors by work under execution ($m

Figure 19: Un-awarded projects market by status

Figure 20: Unawarded projects by sector and status ($m)

Figure 21: UAE purchasing managers’ index

Figure 22: UAE contract awards by sub-sector ($m), 2015−2019

Figure 23: UAE oil and gas sector contracts awarded and completed ($bn), 2010−2019

Figure 24: UAE oil and gas sector contracts awarded and completed by sector ($bn), 2010−2019

Figure 25: Sharjah licensing concession locations

Figure 26: UAE oil and gas fields

Figure 27: Abu Dhabi Licensing Block bid 2018

Figure 28: Structure of Abu Dhabi’s oil and gas industry

Figure 29: Abu Dhabi second round of oil and gas exploration blocks

Figure 30: UAE crude production – based on direct communications, 2010−19 (million b/d)

Figure 31: Abu Dhabi oil production capacity by field, 2018 (b/d)

Figure 32: Blocks covered by Korea/Adnoc concession agreement

Figure 33: UAE gas production and consumption, 2010−18 (billion cubic feet)

Figure 34: Adnoc Gas Processing’s gas processing plants (t/d)

Figure 35: UAE LNG export and import capacity (million t/y), 2010−2018

Figure 36: Dolphin gas pipeline network

Figure 37: Fujairah oil storage capacity, 2013−20 (million cubic metres)

Figure 38: UAE Petrochemicals production capacity (Mtpa) and market share (%), 2010−2018

Figure 39: Borouge expansions (thousand t/y)

Figure 40: UAE hydrocarbons awards by year ($m), 2010−2019

Figure 41: UAE hydrocarbons awards by year and sector ($m), 2010−2019

Figure 42: UAE biggest contractors

Figure 43: The UAE industrial project contract awards, 2010−19 ($m)

Figure 44: The UAE industrial project contract awards by subsector, 2010−19 ($m

Figure 45: The UAE aluminium project contract awards, 2010−19 ($m)

Figure 46: Emirates Steel Expansion Programme

Figure 47: The UAE steel project contract awards, 2010−19 ($m)

Figure 48: The UAE cement project contract awards, 2010−19 ($m)

Figure 49: Industrial projects planned but unawarded by status

Figure 50: Top 10 industrial contractors in the UAE

Figure 51: UAE, cumulative installed capacity (excluding renewables), MW, 2010-2025

Figure 52: UAE, annual power generation (excluding renewables), GWh, 2010-2025

Figure 53: UAE, annual power consumption (GWh), 2010-2025

Figure 54: UAE, minimum power demand, peak power demand, and available capacity (MW), 2010-2017

Figure 55: Peak power demand and installed capacity (MW), 2010−2019

Figure 56: Peak power demand growth (percentage), 2010−2019

Figure 57: Abu Dhabi electricity exports at peak time (MW), 2011-2019

Figure 58: Abu Dhabi peak power demand forecasts (MW), 2018-2032

Figure 59: Abu Dhabi power consumption by sector, 2017 (Per cent)

Figure 60: Dubai peak power demand and installed capacity, 2009−19

Figure 61: Fewa’s peak power imports from Abu Dhabi (MW), 2011−19

Figure 62: Sewa peak power demand growth, 2008-18* (percentage)

Figure 63: Sewa peak power demand, 2011-18* (MW)

Figure 64: Sewa’s peak power imports from Abu Dhabi, 2011−19 (MW)

Figure 65: UAE, cumulative installed renewable capacity (MW), 2010-2025

Figure 66: UAE, annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2010-2025

Figure 67: UAE clean energy targets, 2050

Figure 68: Planned renewables projects value by emirate ($m)

Figure 69: Water production plants in UAE

Figure 70: Dubai annual desalinated water peak demand (MIGD)

Figure 71: UAE water demand by sector

Figure 72: Abu Dhabi water demand by sector (%), 2018

Figure 73: Dubai water demand by sector (million gallons), 2015−2018

Figure 74: Dubai – number of water consumers by type, 2015−2018

Figure 75: UAE water consumption by authority (million cm), 2017

Figure 76: UAE water supply by source (%), 2017

Figure 77: Abu Dhabi water supply by source (%)

Figure 78: Change in Abu Dhabi’s groundwater level, 2005−2016

Figure 79: Abu Dhabi peak desalinated water supply by region, 2018 (%)

Figure 80: Peak water demand (MIGD)

Figure 81: Sewa’s installed desalination capacity, 2017

Figure 82: Produced water quantities in million gallons (Type of production wise), 2018

Figure 83: Produced water quantities in million gallons (Site of production wise), 2018 (%)

Figure 84: Sewa’s water imports, 2010−14 (million gallons)

Figure 85: Wastewater legal framework in the emirate of Abu Dhabi

Figure 86: Main wastewater treatment facilities in Abu Dhabi

Figure 87: Quantity of wastewater by region, 2011−2018 (mcm)

Figure 88: Total wastewater treatment plants capacity by region (mcm)

Figure 89: Percentage distribution of treated wastewater in Abu Dhabi, 2018

Figure 90: Status of sewage treatment plants by design and operating capacity to hydraulic load (m3/d), 2018

Figure 91: Location of the largest wastewater treatment plants in Abu Dhabi

Figure 92: Tactical Investment Planning in Abu Dhabi, 2018

Figure 93: Ajman Sewerage shareholding structure (%)

Figure 94: Ajman sewerage network

Figure 95: Value of construction contarct awards in the UAE, 2010−2020 ($m)

Figure 96: Contract awards Dubai and Abu Dhabi, 2009−19 ($bn)

Figure 97: UAE contract awards by emirate, 2019 ($m

Figure 98: UAE contract awards by emirate in 2018 and 2019 ($bn)

Figure 99: Dubai construction contract awards, 2010−19 ($m)

Figure 100: Dubai construction contract awards by sub-sector ($m), 2010−19

Figure 101: Dubai World Expo Economic Impact (AEDbn)

Figure 102: Dubai World Expo location map

Figure 103: Abu Dhabi construction contract awards, 2010−19 ($m)

Figure 104: Abu Dhabi construction contract awards by sub-sector ($m), 2010−19

Figure 105: Education projects planned and underway by emirate ($m) 2019

Figure 106: Northern Emirates construction contract awards by Emirate, 2010−19 ($m)

Figure 107: Northern Emirates construction contract awards by sub-sector ($m), 2010−19

Figure 108: UAE transport contract awards, 2010−19 ($m)

Figure 109: UAE transport contract awards by emirate, 2019 ($m)

Figure 110: UAE transport sector contract awards by emirate, 2019 and 2018 ($bn)

Figure 111: Transport sector contract awards by Dubai and Abu Dhabi, 2010-2019 ($bn)

Figure 112: Abu Dhabi transport contract awards by sector ($m), 2010-19

Figure 113: Abu Dhabi transport projects under construction by sector (per cent)

Figure 114: Transport projects planned but unawarded by status ($m)

Figure 115: Dubai transport contract awards by sector ($m), 2010-19

Figure 116: Dubai transport projects under construction by sector (per cent

Figure 117: Transport projects planned but unawarded by status ($m)

Figure 118: Northern Emirates transport contract awards by sector ($m), 2010−19

Figure 119: Northern Emirates transport contract awards by emirate ($m), 2010−19

Figure 120: Etihad Rail masterplan

Figure 121: Dubai metro with planned expansions

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