The UK COVID-19 trend could be slow to turn despite interventions such as national lockdowns and vaccination, says GlobalData

The UK January lockdown measures should decrease the number of COVID-19 cases in the following weeks, with the possibility of falling as low as approximately 11,000 cases by January 24, 2021, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Nneoma Okeke at GlobalData comments: “This forecast is based on historical patterns of recovery that were achieved with public health measures, such as the lockdown. Considering the UK is currently in a lockdown, this decline is a prediction of what we expect to see based on previously implemented measures.”

These same restrictions were implemented during the second national lockdown on November 5, 2020, following which a decline was noticed within two weeks.

Okeke continues, “The introduction of the vaccine plays a big role in maintaining low numbers of daily confirmed cases. The more vaccinated individuals in the population, the fewer positive cases we should see. A downward trend to zero cases is highly likely. This could be the final peak of COVID-19 cases for the UK.”

Over the last month, the number of daily confirmed cases in the UK has soared, with reports of over 68,000 confirmed cases on January 8, 2021, the highest reported since the start of the pandemic. The new record comes at a time when the nation is on lockdown and has been administering highly effective vaccines for a month, showing that the COVID-19 trend can be slow to turn despite interventions.

The UK commenced COVID-19 vaccination on December 8, 2020. As of January 3, 2021, over one million vaccines had been administered, covering just 1.5% of the population.

Okeke concludes, “For the vaccination to be effective, up to 29% of the population, or over 19 million people, will need to be vaccinated. The UK will need to significantly increase the vaccine uptake rate in a timely manner if the country is to start seeing a steady decrease in COVID-19 cases.”

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