In the key markets most heavily affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19), case trends are expected to follow a low-risk forecast, with the exception of the US, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Natasha Karim, Managing Epidemiologist at GlobalData comments: “Most countries have enforced strict quarantine and mitigation measures. As a result, confirmed cases are expected to stay within the low-risk-of-transmission scenario. However, in the US – despite recent widespread testing – many tests are backlogged, which still presents a challenging bottleneck to overcome.

“Additional difficulties include inconsistent shutdown orders across the country, open travel within the country; and a shortage of test kits, testing centers and basic supplies. Accurately and swiftly identifying cases and removing infected individuals from circulation is paramount to controlling any infectious disease outbreak, especially one such as COVID-19 where asymptomatic individuals are driving the spread.”

Based on GlobalData’s three-scenario risk of transmission forecast model, the current number of confirmed cases in Italy and Spain will likely follow the low-risk scenario in early April, while the US will likely exceed it. 

In China, with the number of new daily cases decreasing over time, no new local-transmission cases and a large proportion of cases now recovered, the country is uniquely positioned in the ‘recovery’ category – with the country ready to re-open schools and businesses this week.