Despite launch of seven pipeline agents, bipolar disorder market will see only modest growth due to persistent generic erosion, says GlobalData

The bipolar disorder market is expected to grow from $4.1 billion in 2020 to $4.9 billion by 2030 across the eight major markets (8MM*) at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.7%, according to GlobalData, which notes that the main driver of growth will be the launch of seven new pipeline products throughout the 8MM. However, despite these new product launches, only modest growth is expected in the bipolar disorder market due to generic erosion.

Philippa Salter, Neurology Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The bipolar disorder market is crowded and competitive, with a large number of products available for the treatment of patients, the majority of which are available as inexpensive generics. However, the new pipeline products will have significantly higher costs when compared with these generic products, which will drive market growth.”

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Bipolar Disorder: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2030’, identifies that while there are many established products that can effectively manage acute manic symptoms, there is a significant unmet need for novel, more effective treatment options for bipolar depression. Additionally, there remains a need for products with improved safety profiles.

Salter continues: “GlobalData anticipates that the most promising pipeline product will be Intra-Cellular Therapies’ Caplyta (lumateperone), which received FDA approval for the treatment of bipolar depression in December 2021. In addition to providing a new treatment option for bipolar depression, Caplyta has also demonstrated a superior safety profile to many atypical antipsychotics. As such, GlobalData forecasts it will generate global (8MM) sales of approximately $800 million by 2030.”

Continued generic erosion will be a key barrier to growth for the market, with patent expiries of several important products, including Latuda (lurasidone), the market leading brand in 2020, and Abilify Maintena, during the forecast period.

Salter adds: “The current key players in the bipolar disorder market are those that market atypical antipsychotics. These drugs have dominated the market in terms of sales revenues for over a decade. However, many products have lost market exclusivity or are facing imminent patent expiry. As such, over the forecast period, several of the respective companies are expected to lose their positions in this market due to generic competition.”

* 8MM = US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Canada

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