Global age-related macular degeneration market will more than double in size by 2028

The pharmaceutical market for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) was worth an estimated $8.6bn across the nine major markets (9MM*) in 2018. This is expected to grow to $18.7bn in 2028 at a modest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.1%, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Age-Related Macular Degeneration: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2028’, explains that growth in the market will be driven by the entry of longer-acting anti-angiogenic therapies and the launch of products for dry AMD and geographic atrophy (GA), which are two forms of advanced disease for which there are no approved therapies.

Magdalene Crabbe, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The unmet needs in the AMD market are set to be addressed in the coming years, as frequent intravitreal injections to treat wet AMD have become burdensome for patients who live in rural areas or have mobility issues.”

There are 11 Phase III pipeline products for AMD and six of these drug candidates are expected to generate sales of more than $1bn in 2028. In the wet AMD space, two drugs being developed by Roche: faricimab and ranibizumab SR, are expected to be top-selling therapies, due to their low frequency of administration. This will contribute to the projected sales of $16.3bn for wet AMD products in 2028.

Crabbe explains: “A unique feature of ranibizumab SR is that it is formulated as an ocular implant and is expected to be changed approximately once a year. Faricimab is a therapy that is administered at intervals of 12-13 weeks. This gives the drug a favorable clinical profile in comparison to standard-of-care therapies such as Roche’s Lucentis (ranibizumab) and Bayer/Regeneron’s Eylea (aflibercept), which are injected at intervals of 7-10 weeks.”

For dry AMD and GA which cause 33% of the major sight loss seen in AMD, there are four late-stage pipeline agents. Of particular significance will be MacuCLEAR’s antihypertensive agent MC-1101, which was given fast track designation by the FDA. MC-1101 is expected to launch in the US market, where the drug will generate sales of $1.4bn in 2028.

Not to be forgotten is Novartis’ Beovu (brolucizumab), a monoclonal antibody therapy which is available in the US, EU, Japanese, and Australian markets. Beovu is expected to outsell Eylea and achieve blockbuster status in the wet AMD space reaching global sales of $3.6bn in 2028. However, GlobalData expects Beovu’s lead to be marginal due to reports of patients experiencing retinal vasculitis after being treated with the drug after its launch in the US in 2019.

Crabbe concludes: “Although the gaps between treatment options for wet AMD, dry AMD and geographic atrophy are narrowing, it is important to remember that many patients with slower progressing forms of AMD can remain undetected as the condition can be asymptomatic for a long period of time. It is of vital importance that patients attend eye examinations as frequently as possible, so that they can be given access to the life-changing, sight-saving therapies entering the market in the years ahead.”

*9MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, China, and Australia

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