Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) – Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast – April 2020

Powered by

All the vital news, analysis, and commentary curated by our industry experts.

First reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, now more than 846,200 confirmed cases of COVID-19 are spread across 187 countries worldwide. The US is now the most heavily affected country worldwide. Forecasts expect new cases to decrease for most countries in the top markets reporting cases except for Russia, which has not yet reached peak.
People at risk for severe COVID-19 include population with underlying health problems, such as respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, some rare diseases, and diabetes. New analysis available this month for severely obese populations likely to be at risk for sever COVID-19.
The global CFR has increased to more than 7%. The age groups most affected by the disease remains those ages 50 years and older, and men are reported to see higher rates of deaths.
The epidemiology analysis is limited by several data restrictions. Testing availability and criteria differ significantly among countries. All countries’ reported confirmed cases underestimate the number of actual infected people. And mortality reporting is not standardized.


The epidemiology report covers the following areas: current epidemiology situation and forecast, populations at risk, case fatality rate, testing and undiagnosed cases comparison, and data limitations.

The forecast include three-scenario analysis of peak-week and return-to-normal week analysis for the top markets. The populations at risk area focuses on 9MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, China, and South Korea) and provides size of the populations that have COPD, heart disease, diabetes, select rare diseases and diabetes. The case fatality rate area provides comparison in case fatality and proprotion of deaths by age in six major markets (Netherlands, China, South Korea, US, and Italy). Data limitations provide readers with in-depth understanding of the caveats surronding the COVID-19 data.

Key Highlights

The report provide forecast for peak-week and return-to-normal week that will help the reader plan in this uncertain time.

Reasons to Buy

Obtain in-depth understanding of epidemiology data for COVID-19.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary


1 Current Epidemiology Situation

1.1 Current Epidemiology Situation

1.2 New Cases Trend in Top 10 Infected Countries

2 Forecast for Key Markets

2.1 Infection Peak and Decline Forecasts for Select Countries

2.2 Epidemic Curves and Projections for Select Countries

3 High-Risk Populations in Nine Major Markets

3.1 High-Risk Group Analysis

3.2 High-Risk Group Analysis: Diabetes, Heart Disease, and Severe Obesity

4 Case Fatality Rate Comparison

4.1 Case Fatality Rate Comparison

4.2 Proportion of Deaths by Age Group

4.3 Proportion of Deaths by Sex

5 Testing and Undiagnosed Case Comparison

5.1 Proportion of Tested Population Diagnosed with COVID-19

5.2 Studies of Asymptomatic Cases Estimate a Much Higher Case Count than Suggested by Official Reports

6. Data limitations

6.1 Drawbacks to Available Data

7 Appendix

7.1 Methodology

7.2 Abbreviations

7.3 Related Reports

7.4 Sources

7.5 About the Authors

7.6 About GlobalData

7.7 Contact Us


Table 1. Current Epidemiology Situation

Table 2. Top 10 Infected Countries

Table 3. Estimated Peak Weeks and Decline to Zero New Cases Weeks for Top Infected Countries (Excluding China)​

Table 4. Case Fatality Rates by Age Group


Figure 1. Projections of Daily New Confirmed Cases for Select Countries, Since 100th Confirmed Case​

Figure 2. COVID-19 in Patients with Underlying Health Conditions (Respiratory Disease, Cardiovascular Disease, Cancer, Obesity Class III, Diabetes, and Selected Rare Disease) in the Nine Major Markets (9MM)

Figure 3. COVID-19 in Patients with Diabetes in Nine Major Pharmaceutical Markets

Figure 4. COVID-19 in Patients with Heart Disease in Nine Major Pharmaceutical Markets

Figure 5. COVID-19 in Patients with Severe Obesity in Nine Major Pharmaceutical Markets

Figure 6. Case Fatality Rates by Age Group

Figure 7. Proportion of Deaths by Age Group

Figure 8. Proportion of Deaths by Sex

Figure 9. Cumulative Tested Population, Cumulative Confirmed Cases, and Positive Testing Rate

Figure 10. Undiagnosed and Diagnosed Cases: Modelling Estimate Based on Real-World Data 

Frequently asked questions

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) – Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast – April 2020 standard reports
Currency USD

Can be used by individual purchaser only


Can be shared globally by unlimited users within the purchasing corporation e.g. all employees of a single company

Undecided about purchasing this report?

Enquire Before Buying Request a Free Sample

Get in touch to find out about multi-purchase discounts
Tel +44 20 7947 2745

Every customer’s requirement is unique. With over 220,000 construction projects tracked, we can create a tailored dataset for you based on the types of projects you are looking for. Please get in touch with your specific requirements and we can send you a quote.

Sample Report

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) – Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast – April 2020 was curated by the best experts in the industry and we are confident about its unique quality. However, we want you to make the most beneficial decision for your business, so we offer free sample pages to help you:

  • Assess the relevance of the report
  • Evaluate the quality of the report
  • Justify the cost

Download your copy of the sample report and make an informed decision about whether the full report will provide you with the insights and information you need.

Below is a sample report to understand what you are buying

See what our customers are saying

“The GlobalData platform is our go-to tool for intelligence services. GlobalData provides an easy way to access comprehensive intelligence data around multiple sectors, which essentially makes it a one-for-all intelligence platform, for tendering and approaching customers.

GlobalData is very customer orientated, with a high degree of personalised services, which benefits everyday use. The highly detailed project intelligence and forecast reports can be utilised across multiple departments and workflow scopes, from operational to strategic level, and often support strategic decisions. GlobalData Analytics and visualisation solutions has contributed positively when preparing management presentations and strategic papers.”

Business Intelligence & Marketing Manager, SAL Heavy Lift

“COVID-19 has caused significant interference to our business and the COVID-19 intelligence from GlobalData has helped us reach better decisions around strategy. These two highlights have helped enormously to understand the projections into the future concerning our business units, we also utilise the project database to source new projects for Liebherr-Werk to use as an additional source to pitch for new business.”

Market Analyst & Management, Liebherr-Werk

Your daily news has saved me a lot of time and keeps me up-to-date with what is happening in the market, I like that you almost always have a link to the source origin. We also use your market data in our Strategic Business Process to support our business decisions. By having everything in one place on the Intelligence Center it has saved me a lot of time versus looking on different sources, the alert function also helps with this.

Head of Key Accounts, Saab AB

Having used several other market research companies, I find that GlobalData manages to provide that ‘difficult-to-get’ market data that others can’t, as well as very diverse and complete consumer surveys.

Marketing Intelligence Manager, Portugal Foods

Our experience with GlobalData has been very good, from the platform itself to the people. I find that the analysts and the account team have a high level of customer focus and responsiveness and therefore I can always rely on. The platform is more holistic than other providers. It is convenient and almost like a one stop shop. The pricing suite is highly competitive and value for our organisation.

I like reports that inform new segments such as the analysis on generation Z, millennials, the impact of COVID 19 to our banking customers and their new channel habits. Secondly the specialist insight on affluent sector significantly increases our understanding about this group of customers. The combination of those give us depth and breadth of the evolving market.

I’m in the business of answering and helping people make decisions so with the intelligence center I can do that, effectively and efficiently. I can share quickly key insights that answer and satisfy our country stakeholders by giving them many quality studies and primary research about competitive landscape beyond the outlook of our bank. It helps me be seen as an advisory partner and that makes a big difference. A big benefit of our subscription is that no one holds the whole data and because it allows so many people, so many different parts of our organisation have access, it enables all teams to have the same level of knowledge and decision support.

Head of Customer Insight and Research, Standard Chartered

“I know that I can always rely on Globaldata’s work when I’m searching for the right consumer and market insights. I use Globaldata insights to understand the changing market & consumer landscape and help create better taste & wellbeing solutions for our customers in food, beverage and healthcare industries.

Globaldata has the right data and the reports are of very high quality compared to your competitors. Globaldata not only has overall market sizes & consumer insights on food & beverages but also provides insights at the ingredient & flavour level. That is key for B2B companies like Givaudan. This way we understand our customers’ business and also gain insight to our unique industry”

Head of Consumer Sensory Insights, Givaudan

GlobalData provides a great range of information and reports on various sectors that is highly relevant, timely, easy to access and utilise.  The reports and data dashboards help engagement with clients; they provide valuable industry and market insights that can enrich client conversations and can help in the shaping of value propositions. Moreover, using GlobalData products has helped increase my knowledge of the finance sector, the players within it, and the general threats and opportunities.

I find the consumer surveys that are carried out to be extremely beneficial and not something I have seen anywhere else. They provided an insightful view of why and which consumers take (or don’t) particular financial products. This can help shape conversations with clients to ensure they make the right strategic decisions for their business.

One of the challenges I have found is that data in the payments space is often piecemeal. With GD all of the data I need is in one place, but it also comes with additional market reports that provide useful extra context and information. Having the ability to set-up alerts on relevant movements in the industry, be it competitors or customers, and have them emailed directly to me, ensures I get early sight of industry activity and don’t have to search for news.

Senior Account Manager, TSYS
Go even deeper with GlobalData Intelligence Center

Every Company Report we produce is powered by the GlobalData Intelligence Center.

Subscribing to our intelligence platform means you can monitor developments at Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) – Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast – April 2020 in real time.

  • Access a live Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) – Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast – April 2020 dashboard for 12 months, with up-to-the-minute insights.
  • Fuel your decision making with real-time deal coverage and media activity.
  • Turn insights on financials, deals, products and pipelines into powerful agents of commercial advantage.