EpiCast Report: Overweight and Obesity – Epidemiology Forecast to 2022

Pages: 125 Published: August 01, 2013 Report Code: GDHCER022-13

Overweight and obesity are characterized by abnormal or excessive fat accumulation in the body, which can increase the likelihood of developing type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Obesity is an escalating public health problem with an increasing worldwide prevalence and has become a well-known threat to public health. As obesity is a complex condition associated with a wide range of lifestyle, genetic, social, cultural, and environmental factors, its prevalence may vary across countries, depending on the variations in these contributing factors.

GlobalData’s epidemiological analysis forecasts that prevalent cases of overweight in the 9MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, and Canada) will increase from 250.05 million in 2012 to 271.86 million cases in 2022 at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 0.86%. Approximately 57% of the 250.05 million prevalent cases of overweight adults in the 9MM in 2012 were in men. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that there were 167.39 million prevalent cases of obesity in the 9MM in 2012, which will increase to 213.34 million cases in 2022, increasing at an AGR of 2.75%. Approximately 52% of the 167.39 million prevalent cases of obese adults in the 9MM in 2012 were in women.

According to GlobalData’s forecast, the prevalent cases of both overweight and obesity will increase dramatically over the next decade, with the number of obese adults increasing by an alarming 27.50%. Overweight and obesity have reached pandemic proportions; however, GlobalData epidemiologists believe that with the alarming increase in the prevalence of both overweight and obesity, the morbidity and mortality associated with the disease will continue to increase dramatically as well.

Scope

The Overweight and Obesity EpiCast report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global trends of overweight and obesity in the 9MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, and Canada). It includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast of the prevalent cases of overweight, obesity, obesity class I, obesity class II, and obesity class III segmented by sex and age. In addition, the report includes a 10-year forecast of the prevalent cases of obesity-associated comorbidities, including diagnosed diabetes, diagnosed hypertension, and dyslipidemia, among adults with overweight/obesity in some of these markets. The overweight and obesity epidemiology report was written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists. In-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 9MM.

Reasons to Buy

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global overweight and obesity market.

Quantify patient populations in the global overweight and obesity market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.

Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for overweight and obesity therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Identify the number of obesity class I, obesity class II, and obesity class III prevalent cases.

Table of Contents

1Table of Contents

1.1List of Tables

1.2List of Figures

2Introduction

2.1Catalyst

2.2Related Reports

2.3Upcoming Reports

3Epidemiology

3.1Disease Overview

3.2Risk Factors and Comorbidities

3.2.1Family history is a strong predictor of obesity

3.2.2Physical inactivity is an independent predictor of obesity

3.2.3Excessive caloric intake doubles the risk for obesity

3.2.4Hypertension is as high as 42% in obese adults

3.2.5Dyslipidemia and type 2 diabetes are common comorbidities in obese patients

3.3Global Trends

3.3.1US

3.3.25EU

3.3.3Japan

3.3.4Brazil

3.3.5Canada

3.4Forecast Methodology

3.4.1Sources Used

3.4.2Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Prevalent Cases of Overweight, Obesity, Obesity by Class, and Comorbidities

3.4.3Sources Not Used

3.5Epidemiology Forecast of Overweight (2012–2022)

3.5.1Prevalent Cases of Overweight

3.5.2Age-Specific Prevalent Cases of Overweight

3.5.3Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of Overweight

3.5.4Age-Standardized Prevalence of Overweight

3.6Epidemiology Forecast of Obesity (2012–2022)

3.6.1Prevalent Cases of Obesity

3.6.2Age-Specific Prevalent Cases of Obesity

3.6.3Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of Obesity

3.6.4Age-Standardized Prevalence of Obesity

3.7Epidemiology Forecast of Obesity Class I (2012–2022)

3.7.1Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I

3.7.2Age-Specific Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I

3.7.3Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I

3.7.4Age-Standardized Prevalence of Obesity Class I

3.8Epidemiology Forecast of Obesity Class II (2012–2022)

3.8.1Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II

3.8.2Age-Specific Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II

3.8.3Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II

3.8.4Age-Standardized Prevalence of Obesity Class II

3.9Epidemiology Forecast of Obesity Class III (2012–2022)

3.9.1Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III

3.9.2Age-Specific Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III

3.9.3Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III

3.9.4Age-Standardized Prevalence of Obesity Class III

3.10Epidemiology Forecast of Comorbidities among Adults with Overweight/Obesity (2012 and 2022)

3.10.1Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Diabetes among Adults with Overweight/Obesity

3.10.2Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Hypertension in Adults with Overweight/Obesity

3.10.3Prevalent Cases of Dyslipidemia among Adults with Overweight/Obesity

3.11Discussion

3.11.1Conclusions on Epidemiological Trends

3.11.2Limitations of the Analysis

3.11.3Strengths of the Analysis

4Appendix

4.1Bibliography

4.2About the Authors

4.2.1Epidemiologists

4.2.2Reviewers

4.2.3Global Director of Epidemiology and Health Policy

4.2.4Global Head of Healthcare

4.3About GlobalData

4.4About EpiCast

4.5Contact Us

4.6Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: The WHO Classification System of Adult Overweight and Obesity According to BMI

Table 2: Risk Factors and Comorbidities of Obesity

Table 3: 9MM, Age-Adjusted and Crude Prevalence (%) of Obesity, by Sex, Ages =20 Years, 2008

Table 4: JASSO and WHO Classifications of Obesity

Table 5: Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for Forecasting the Prevalent Cases of Overweight

Table 6: Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for Forecasting the Prevalent Cases of Obesity

Table 7: Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for Forecasting the Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I, Class II, and Class III

Table 8: Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for Forecasting the Prevalent Cases of Comorbidities in Overweight/Obese

Table 9: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Overweight, Ages =18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012–2022

Table 10: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Overweight, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Row (%), 2012

Table 11: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Overweight, Ages =18 Years, By Sex, N (Millions), Row (%), 2012

Table 12: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity, Ages =18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012–2022

Table 13: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Row (%), 2012

Table 14: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity, Ages =18 Years, by Sex, N (Millions), Row (%), 2012

Table 15: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I, Ages =18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012–2022

Table 16: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I, by Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Row (%), 2012

Table 17: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I, Ages =18 Years, By Sex, N (Millions), Row (%), 2012

Table 18: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II, Ages =18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012–2022

Table 19: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Row (%), 2012

Table 20: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II, Ages =18 Years, By Sex, N (Millions), Row (%), 2012

Table 21: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III, Ages =18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012–2022

Table 22: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Row (%), 2012

Table 23: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III, Ages =18 Years, By Sex, N (Millions), Row (%), 2012

Table 24: 5MM*, Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Diabetes among Adults with Overweight/Obesity, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012 and 2022

Table 25: 6MM*, Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Hypertension among Adults with Overweight/Obesity, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012 and 2022

Table 26: 4MM, Prevalent Cases of Dyslipidemia* among Adults with Overweight/Obesity, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012 and 2022

List of Figures

Figure 1: US, Overweight and Obesity Age-Adjusted Prevalence (%), Ages 20–74 Years, Men, 1960–2010

Figure 2: US, Overweight and Obesity Age-Adjusted Prevalence (%), Ages 20–74 Years, Women, 1960–2010

Figure 3: France, Overweight and Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages =15 Years, Men, 1997–2006

Figure 4: France, Overweight and Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages =15 Years, Women, 1997–2006

Figure 5: Italy, Overweight and Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages =18, Men, 1983–2010

Figure 6: Italy, Overweight and Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages =18, Men, 1983–2010

Figure 7: UK, Overweight and Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages =16 Years, Men, 1993–2011

Figure 8: UK, Overweight and Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages =16 Years, Women, 1993–2011

Figure 9: Japan, Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages =20 Years, By Sex, 1976–2006

Figure 10: Brazil, Overweight and Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages =20 Years, Men, 1975–2003

Figure 11: Brazil, Overweight and Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages =20 Years, Women, 1975–2003

Figure 12:Canada, Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages =18 Years, Both Sexes, 1978–2008

Figure 13: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Overweight, Ages =18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012–2022

Figure 14: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Overweight, by Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012

Figure 15: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Overweight, Ages =18 Years, by Sex, N (Millions), 2012

Figure 16: 9MM, Overweight Age-Standardized Prevalence (%), Ages =18 Years, By Sex, 2012

Figure 17: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity, Ages =18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012–2022

Figure 18: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012

Figure 19: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity, Ages =18 Years, by Sex, N (Millions), 2012

Figure 20: 9MM, Obesity Age-Standardized Prevalence (%), Ages =18 Years, By Sex, 2012

Figure 21: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I, Ages =18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012–2022

Figure 22: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012

Figure 23: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I, Ages =18 Years, by Sex, N (Millions), 2012

Figure 24: 9MM*, Obesity Class I Age-Standardized Prevalence (%), Ages =18 Years, by Sex, 2012

Figure 25: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II, Ages =18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012–2022

Figure 26: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012

Figure 27: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II, Ages =18 Years, by Sex, N (Millions), 2012

Figure 28: 9MM*, Age-Standardized Prevalence (%) of Obesity Class II, Ages =18 Years, By Sex, 2012

Figure 29: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III, Ages =18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012–2022

Figure 30: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012

Figure 31: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III, Ages =18 Years, By Sex, N (Millions), 2012

Figure 32: 9MM*, Obesity Class III Age-Standardized Prevalence (%), Ages =18 Years, By Sex, 2012

Figure 33: 5MM*, Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Diabetes among Adults with Overweight/Obesity, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012

Figure 34: 6MM*, Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Hypertension among Adults with Overweight/Obesity, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012

Figure 35: 4MM*, Prevalent Cases of Dyslipidemia** among Adults with Overweight/Obesity, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012

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