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Furniture & Floorcoverings Retailing in the UK| Verdict Market Report

Pages: 136 Published: December 01, 2015 Report Code: VR0067SR

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Use our market share and channels of distribution to find out which retailers and channels pose the biggest threat Identify growth drivers & inhibitors and implement our strategies to boost sales and maximise opportunities in the furniture & floorcoverings sector

Scope

While furniture specialists have made significant progress in online, they must continue to work on better linking this channel with their stores. In 2015, IKEA is trialling click and collect in its stores. With websites being used for pre-purchase research, retailers must ensure that their websites are easy to navigate and be informative.

We forecast that kitchens will achieve the greatest uplift in sales between 2015 and 2020, up 20.7% on 2015. This will be driven by improvements the market leader B&Q is doing to improve its offer, the continued expansion of Wren Living, the more buoyant housing market and homeowners spending more time in their kitchens.

In both furniture and floorcoverings, we forecast that the multiple specialists will gain the most amount of share, as customers continue making furniture purchases, open more stores and continue to develop their online presence. In both sectors, this growth will largely be at the expense of independents, who struggle to compete on price and range.

Reasons to Buy

What is the furniture & floorcoverings market size and how will it develop over the next five years What is driving and inhibiting consumer spend

Which channels have performed the best, and which channels have seen their share of the market decline

How will the specialists perform against the emerging remote retailers and DIY retailers up to 2020 How will the department stores compete

Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary

1.1 Key findings

1.1.1 Higher levels of disposable income will keep momentum going

1.1.2 Upholstery & carpet set to drive growth in 2015

1.1.3 Greater buoyancy in the housing market will keep momentum going

1.1.4 Remote retailers set to become greater threat to specialists

1.1.5 Online furniture & floorcoverings will continue its rapid growth

2 Main conclusions

2.1 Higher levels of disposable income will keep momentum going

2.2 Upholstery & carpet set to drive growth in 2015

2.3 Greater buoyancy in the housing market will keep momentum going

2.4 Remote retailers set to become greater threat to specialists

2.5 Online furniture & floorcoverings will continue its rapid growth

3 Sector trends

3.1 Despite recovering, online satisfaction in furniture & floorcoverings remains low

3.2 Online retailers shaking up the UK furniture market

3.3 Success of smaller furniture stores and concessions hinges on multichannel integration

3.4 Widening ranges mark the end for the mid-market furniture specialist

3.5 New entrant Tapi set to apply greater pressure on independents

4 Market Size

4.1 Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure trends

4.1.1 Better housing market leads to best performance in 10 years

4.1.2 Furniture & floorcoverings set to return to growth after six years of declines

4.2 Furniture & floorcoverings sub-sector trends

4.2.1 Floorcoverings lags furniture recovery

4.2.2 Furniture increases share of sector

4.3 Furniture & floorcoverings sub-sector breakdown

4.3.1 Furniture

4.3.2 Beds and bedroom furniture returns to 2010 levels

4.3.3 Upholstery achieves strongest growth out of all furniture sub-sectors in 2015

4.3.4 Impact of Howdens deflates kitchens growth

4.3.5 Dining set to outperform living room furniture in 2015

4.3.6 The rise of online specialists will drive bathroom

4.3.7 Home office grows but wireless networks dampen performance

4.3.8 Other achieves marginal growth

4.4 Floorcoverings

4.4.1 Carpet continues to dominate the floorcoverings sector

4.4.2 Increased kitchen and bathroom sales drive the hard floorcoverings sub-sector

4.4.3 Vinyl/linoleum struggles as customers upgrade to hard floorcoverings

4.5 Channels of Distribution

4.5.1 Furniture

4.6 Floorcoverings

5 Market Forecast

5.1 Key findings

5.1.1 Growth drivers

5.1.2 Growth inhibitors

5.2 Strategies for success

5.2.1 Retailers need to link online with stores more

5.2.2 Store environment and experience will become key

6 Furniture & Floorcoverings Expenditure Forecasts

6.1 Key findings

6.2 Volumes consistently drive growth throughout the forecast period

6.3 Furniture

6.3.1 Upholstery

6.3.2 Beds and bedroom furniture

6.3.3 Kitchen

6.3.4 Living and dining

6.3.5 Home office

6.3.6 Bathroom

6.3.7 Other

6.4 Floorcoverings

6.4.1 Carpet

6.4.2 Hard floorcoverings

6.4.3 Vinyl/linoleum

7 Furniture & Floorcoverings Quarterly Expenditure Forecasts

7.1 Furniture & floorcoverings

7.2 Furniture

7.3 Floorcoverings

8 Furniture & Floorcoverings Specialists' Sales

8.1 Key findings

8.2 Channels of distribution

9 Company Data Analysis

9.1 Furniture market shares

9.1.1 IKEA continues to lead the way

9.1.2 IKEA and Oak Furniture Land streak ahead with market share gains

9.1.3 DFS dominates the upholstery market

9.1.4 Oak Furniture Land grows aggressively in the past five years

9.1.5 Beds sector remains highly fragmented

9.1.6 Wren records exceptional growth in past five years

9.2 Key operating statistics

9.2.1 Clothing drives growth at John Lewis

9.2.2 Directory sales drive growth at Next

9.3 Space

9.3.1 Specialists actively reducing their store portfolio

9.3.2 Upholstery specialists set to continue to expand aggressively

9.3.3 New formats help drive space growth for Next

9.3.4 Dreams forges ahead in sales densities in 2014 compared to last year

9.5 Floorcoverings market shares

9.5.1 Carpetright continues to dominate the sector

9.5.2 Carpetright further extends its lead

9.6 Key operating statistics

9.6.1 Carpetright returns to sales growth after four years in 2014/15 financial year

9.6.2 House of Fraser concessions and flooring power ScS growth

9.7 Space

9.7.1 DIY specialists actively reducing their store portfolio

9.7.2 Carpetright continues to cut back on space

9.7.3 United Carpets still feeling the effects of its pre-pack administration

9.7.4 IKEA and ScS tie for the greatest uplift in sales densities

10 Appendix

10.1 Definitions

10.1.1 Current prices

10.1.2 Inflation

10.1.3 Constant prices

10.1.4 Total growth

10.1.5 Volume growth

10.2 Further reading

10.3 About Verdict Retail

10.4 Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Furniture & floorcoverings market definitions, 2014

Table 2: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure sources of growth (%), 2005-15e

Table 3: Furniture & floorcoverings category breakdown (£m), 2010, 2014 and 2015e

Table 4: Furniture expenditure (£m), 2005-15e

Table 5: Breakdown of consumer spend on furniture products (£m), 2010-15e

Table 6: Floorcoverings expenditure (£m), 2005-15e

Table 7: Breakdown of consumer spend on floorcoverings products (£m), 2010-15e

Table 8: Furniture channels of distribution (£m) and market share (%), 2011-15e

Table 9: Floorcoverings channels of distribution (£m) and market share (%), 2011-15e

Table 10: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure, inflation, volume and value, 2015e-20e

Table 11: Furniture expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 12: Upholstery expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 13: Beds and bedroom furniture expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 14: Kitchen expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 15: Living and dining expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 16: Home office expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 17: Bathroom expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 18: Other expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 19: Floorcoverings expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 20: Carpet expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 21: Hard floorcoverings furniture expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 22: Vinyl/linoleum expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 23: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure (£m) and growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Table 24: Furniture expenditure (£m) and growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Table 25: Floorcoverings expenditure (£m) and growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Table 26: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists' expenditure, 2010-20e

Table 27: Sources of growth at furniture & floorcoverings specialists (%), 2010-20e

Table 28: Furniture specialists' expenditure, 2010-20e

Table 29: Sources of growth at furniture specialists (%), 2010-20e

Table 30: Floorcoverings specialists' expenditure, 2010-20e

Table 31: Sources of growth at floorcoverings specialists (%), 2010-20e

Table 32: Furniture channels of distribution (£m) and market share (%), 2015e-20e

Table 33: Floorcoverings channels of distribution (£m) and market share (%), 2015e-20e 0e

Table 34: Share of the total market held by furniture retailers (%), 2010-15e

Table 35: Share of the upholstery market (%), 2010-15e

Table 36: Share of the living/dining room market (%), 2010-15e

Table 37: Share of the beds and bedroom furniture market (%), 2010-15e

Table 38: Share of the kitchen market (%), 2010-15e

Table 39: Leading furniture & floorcoverings retailers' key operating statistics, 2013/14

Table 40: Leading furniture & floorcoverings retailers' store portfolio, 2013/14

Table 41: Share of the total market held by floorcoverings retailers (%), 2010-15e

Table 42: Leading floorcoverings retailers' key operating statistics, 2014/15

Table 43: Leading floorcoverings retailers' store portfolio, 2014/15

List of Figures

Figure 1: Percentage of customers who were satisfied with their last online furniture & floorcoverings purchase compared to overall online satisfaction (%), 2014 and 2015

Figure 2: Change in customer satisfaction compared to 12 months prior and the sector average (percentage points), October 2015

Figure 3: Level of satisfaction with different stages of shopping online for furniture & floorcoverings and overall retail (%), 2015

Figure 4: Made Unboxed, 2015

Figure 5: Combined remote retailers' furniture market share (%), 2010-20e

Figure 6: Made.com showroom in Soho, 2015

Figure 7: DFS Westfield Stratford store, 2015

Figure 8: Verdict's UK floorcoverings market shares (%), 2015e

Figure 9: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure (£m) and year-on-year change (%), 2005-15e

Figure 10: Sources of growth in furniture & floorcoverings (%), 2005-15e

Figure 11: Furniture & floorcoverings sub-sector growth (%), 2005-15e

Figure 12: Furniture & floorcoverings sub-sector shares (%), 2005, 2010 and 2015e

Figure 13: Furniture expenditure (£m) and year-on-year change (%), 2005-15e

Figure 14: Sources of growth in furniture (%), 2005-15e

Figure 15: Furniture category share of furniture market (%), 2010 and 2015e

Figure 16: Floorcoverings expenditure (£m) and year-on-year change (%), 2005-15e

Figure 17: Sources of growth in floorcoverings (%), 2005-15e

Figure 18: Floorcoverings category share of floorcoverings market (%), 2010 and 2015e

Figure 19: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure as a proportion of total retail (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 20: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure (£m), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 21: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure (£m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 22: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure drivers of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 23: Change in furniture & floorcoverings expenditure (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 24: Change in furniture expenditure by category (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 25: Furniture expenditure (£m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 26: Furniture sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 27: Upholstery expenditure (£m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 28: Upholstery expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 29: Beds and bedroom furniture expenditure (£m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 30: Beds and bedroom furniture expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 31: Kitchen expenditure (£m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 32: Kitchen expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 33: Living and dining expenditure (£m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

igure 34: Living and dining expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 35: Home office expenditure (£m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 36: Home office expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 37: Bathroom expenditure (£m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 38: Bathroom expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 39: Other expenditure (£m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 40: Other expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 41: Change in floorcoverings expenditure by category (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 42: Floorcoverings expenditure (£m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 43: Floorcoverings sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 44: Carpet expenditure (£m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 45: Carpet expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 46: Hard floorcoverings furniture expenditure (£m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 47: Hard floorcoverings furniture expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 48: Vinyl/linoleum expenditure (£m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20

Figure 49: Vinyl/linoleum expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 50: Furniture & floorcoverings sources of growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 51: Furniture & floorcoverings versus total retail year-on-year growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 52: Furniture sources of growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 53: Furniture versus furniture & floorcoverings year-on-year growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 54: Floorcoverings sources of growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 55: Floorcoverings versus furniture & floorcoverings year-on-year growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 56: Total furniture & floorcoverings specialists' sales (£m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 57: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists' sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 58: Change in sales at constant and current prices among furniture & floorcoverings specialists (%), 2010-20e

Figure 59: Furniture specialists' sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 60: Change in sales at constant and current prices among furniture specialists (%), 2010-20e

Figure 61: Furniture specialists' store numbers and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 62: Furniture specialists' sales densities (£/sq ft) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 63: Floorcoverings specialists' sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 64: Change in sales at constant and current prices among floorcoverings specialists (%), 2010-20e

Figure 65: Floorcoverings specialists' store numbers and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 66: Floorcoverings specialists' sales densities (£/sq ft) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 67: Change in retailer share of furniture market (percentage points), 2015e on 2010

Figure 68: Change in furniture market shares (percentage point), 2015e on 2014

Figure 69: Leading furniture & floorcoverings retailers' change in sales (%), 2014-15e

Figure 70: Leading furniture & floorcoverings retailers' change in sales (%), 2010-15e

Figure 71: Leading furniture & floorcoverings retailers' space growth (%), 2014-15e

Figure 72: Leading furniture & floorcoverings retailers' space growth (%), 2010-15e

Figure 73: Leading furniture & floorcoverings retailers' change in sales densities (%), 2014-15e

Figure 74: Leading furniture & floorcoverings retailers' change in sales densities (%), 2010-15e

Figure 75: Change in retailer share of floorcoverings market (percentage points), 2015e on 2010

Figure 76: Change in floorcoverings market shares (percentage point), 2015e on 2014

Figure 77: Leading floorcoverings retailers' change in sales (%), 2014-15e

Figure 78: Leading floorcoverings retailers' change in sales (%), 2010-15e

Figure 79: Leading floorcoverings retailers' space growth (%), 2014-15e

Figure 80: Leading floorcoverings retailers' space growth (%), 2010-15e

Figure 81: Leading floorcoverings retailers' change in sales densities (%), 2014-15e

Figure 82: Leading floorcoverings retailers' change in sales densities (%), 2010-15e
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