Global Risk Report Quarterly Update – Q4 2020

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Global Risk Report is based on GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from GlobalData Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, GlobalData analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

The twelfth update version of GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q4 2020 ranks Switzerland at the top followed by Singapore and Denmark. 28 countries were identified in the very low risk zone, 22 countries in the low-risk zone, 36 countries under manageable risk, 39 countries under high risk and 11 countries in the very high-risk zone in GCRI Q4 2020.

Scope

– In Asia-Pacific, the risk score stood at 42.2 in Q4 2020, compared to 51.4 in Q2 2020, making it the second lowest risk region. A recovery in the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing has been witnessed in most APAC nations, along with a gradual recovery in global demand. An uptick in retail trade and growing demand for e-commerce helped the APAC economies recover in H2 2020.

– The European region remained the lowest risk region in the Q4 2020 update of the global risk index, owing to its strong macroeconomic fundamentals. When the coronavirus pandemic was at its peak, the European nations were able to control its spread and the risks associated with the pandemic through sufficient control measures enforced in a timely manner.

– The Americas is the second highest risk region, according to the GCRI Q4 2020 update, with a regional risk score of 47.6 out of 100. The whole region was battered by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Out of the top 15 worst affected countries, five are part of the Americas. The health crisis has led to a precipitous rise in poverty and social instability in the region, led by high unemployment.

– The Middle East and Africa (MEA) is the highest risk region according to the GCRI 2020 Q4 update, with a regional risk score of 51.4 out of 100, down compared to 55.6 in the GCRI 2020 Q2 update and up compared to 48.8 in the GCRI 2019 Q4 update. The region continues to be plagued by social conflict and geopolitical turmoil.

Reasons to Buy

– Global Risk Report is based on GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

– The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from GlobalData Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, GlobalData analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Global Overview – Key Highlights

Global Overview – Summary

Flashback -March 2020 to February 2021

Key Events -March 2021 to February 2022

GCRI – Country Ranking

GCRI Q4 2020 Heat Map

GCRI – Global Landscape 2021

COVID-19 -Major Risks and Recovery

Infection rates continue to rise albeit at a slower pace

Growth forecast for 2020 and 2021: Key Macroeconomic Indicators

Business and consumer sentiments trends

Oil prices rise amid slow US output recovery

Increasing deficit and debt levels in major economies with huge spending on stimulus

COVID-19 impact on the labor market

GlobalData’s economic recovery scorecard

Regional Analysis

Regional Analysis – Asia-Pacific

Regional Analysis – Europe

Regional Analysis – Americas

Regional Analysis -Middle East and Africa

Methodology and Sources

Frequently asked questions

Global Risk Report Quarterly Update – Q4 2020 standard reports
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