Global Risk Report Quarterly Update – Q2 2023

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Global Risk Report Overview

The GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) in Q2 2023 reveals a risk score of 44.2 out of 100 indicating a minor decline in the Q1 2023 risk score. This reduction reflects a two-quarter trend, driven by favorable factors such as robust consumer spending in the services sector, gradually easing inflationary pressure, and decreased vulnerabilities in the banking sector. Nevertheless, challenges persist, including China’s sluggish economic recovery, ongoing core inflation, higher interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainties.

However, the economic risk score increased to 45.4 in Q2 2023, as the global economy is battling multiple challenges.

GCRI – Global Risk Heat Map

GCRI – Global Risk Heat Map

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The “Global Risk Report Q2 2023” is based on GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model. It determines the existing and future levels of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies based on historical developments in an economy and their future expectations.

Global Risk Score (Q2 2023) 44.2
Key Regions ·       Asia-Pacific

·       Europe

·       Americas

·       Middle East and Africa

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Global Risk Report - Regional Analysis

The key regions are Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Americas, and the Middle East and Africa.

Asia-Pacific: In Asia-Pacific, the risk score declined in Q2 2023 when compared to the previous quarter, ranking the region with the second-lowest risk score globally. Emerging and developing economies in Asia-Pacific have experienced strong growth recently, aided by factors such as increased domestic activity, rising investments, and a resurgence in tourism.

Americas: The Americas region also experienced a minor decline in its risk score during Q2 2023. This shift was primarily driven by reduced inflationary pressures and an improving labor market in the US. Despite this decrease, the Americas maintained its second-highest global risk ranking, with only the Middle East and Africa ranking higher. This ranking was largely influenced by vulnerabilities observed in Latin American countries, the elevated cost of financing, and rising debt in the US.

Europe: Europe continues to be the least-risk region in the world. The decrease in the risk score is supported by low unemployment and a rise in tourism but is challenged by high-interest rates and varying inflation rates.

Middle East and Africa: It retained its status as the highest-risk region in Q2 2023. Oil production cuts constrain economic growth in major oil-producing countries. Geopolitical instability stemming from ongoing conflicts contributes to the region’s risk profile. Additionally, heatwaves in the Middle East and a worsening humanitarian crisis in Africa add to the challenges faced in this region.

Global Risk Report Regional Analysis, 2023

Global Risk Report Regional Analysis, 2023

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Table of Contents

GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) – Country Ranking

GCRI Q2 2023 – Key Takeaways

Global Overview – Summary

Global Overview – Key Highlights

Flashback – October 2022 to September 2023

Key Events – October 2023 to September 2024

GCRI Q2 2023 Heat Map

GCRI – Global Landscape 2023

Major Risks and Recovery

Regional Analysis

Regional Analysis – Asia-Pacific

Regional Analysis – Europe

Regional Analysis – Americas

Regional Analysis – Middle East and Africa

Methodology & Appendix

Frequently asked questions

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