Global Macroeconomic Outlook – Q2 2024 Update

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Global Macroeconomic Outlook Report Overview

2024 is anticipated to be a pivotal year, characterized by a shift in consumption from services to goods and an acceleration in investment as monetary conditions gradually ease. Furthermore, industrial production is expected to rebound in 2024 and 2025, following a slump in 2023. This recovery is likely to be driven by gradual improvements in external demand and easing supply chain constraints. However, non-macroeconomic risks, particularly geopolitical shocks, remain significant, contributing to the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook.

Among the 222 countries monitored by GlobalData, approximately 7% are expected to achieve a growth rate of 6% or more in 2024. Notably, significant economies such as India and Vietnam are projected to experience robust growth in their real GDP.

Economic Growth Projections Heat Map for 2024

Economic Growth Projections Heat Map for 2024

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The Global Macroeconomic Outlook Q2 2024 update report identifies, analyzes, and forecasts key developments in the global economy. The report provides a 360-degree view of the economy which can be used as a strategic tool to understand market dynamics, business potential, and direction of operations.

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Key Developments - Global Economy

In the Q2 2024 update, world economic growth projections for 2024 have been adjusted upward. Nevertheless, the growth is anticipated to slow down compared to 2023. The APAC region remains the primary growth driver based on Q2 projections.

India is projected to be the fastest-growing major economy in 2024, bolstered by strong domestic demand and a growing working-age population. Despite challenges like high debt and rising public expenditure, Asia’s resilience and potential for increased tax revenues, given its large population and expanding middle class, are key to sustaining economic stability.

Additionally, inflation exhibits a declining trend, while policy rates stay elevated. Global trade during the year is poised for recovery and growth, building upon the positive momentum observed in the first quarter of 2024. Improved economic forecasts and a gradual reduction in global inflation are contributing to this optimistic outlook. Additionally, the increasing demand for environmental goods, notably electric vehicles, is expected to serve as a significant driver of trade expansion throughout the year.

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Key Macroeconomic Indicators Outlook

Global economic growth is slowing due to the impact of high borrowing costs, trade disruptions, climate change challenges, rising debt levels, and increasing income inequality. These factors collectively hinder economic activities, investment, and consumption, leading to a deceleration in overall economic expansion. The APAC region is poised to witness the highest growth rate globally in 2024.

Major economies are currently witnessing a downward trend in inflation rates, attributed to the effects of monetary tightening. Furthermore, trade growth is set to rebound in 2024, as per WTO estimates, driven by improved economic conditions and rising demand for environmental goods. However, challenges such as geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions continue to pose risks to global trade dynamics.

Inflation Rate Projections 2022-2025(F)

Inflation Rate Projections 2022-2025(F)

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Key Highlights

Regionally, the Asia-Pacific region is projected to be the fastest-growing, with a growth rate of 3.65% in 2024 and is expected to contribute around 55% to global growth. This is followed by the Middle East & Africa (2.84%), the Americas (2.04%), and Europe (1.16%).

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GlobalData’s Global Macroeconomic Outlook Report identifies, analyzes, and forecasts key developments in the global economy. The report provides a 360-degree view of the economy which can be used as a strategic tool to understand market dynamics, business potential, and direction of operations.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Foreword
  • 2. Executive summary
  • 3. Key developments – global economy

    • 3.1. Geopolitical outlook 2024
    • 3.2. Economic growth projections by region – Q2 2024 update
    • 3.3. Region wise economic outlook 2024
    • 3.4. Economic growth projections for 2024 heat map
    • 3.5. Asia-Pacific region to account for around 55% of global growth in 2024
    • 3.6. Real GDP growth forecast revision – major economies
    • 3.7. Inflation exhibits a declining trend
    • 3.8. Policy rate stays at elevated levels
    • 3.9. Major currencies (LCU per $)
    • 3.10. Energy price exhibits a rising trend in recent months
    • 3.11. Business and consumer sentiment trend
    • 3.12. Global supply chain pressure index rises due to attacks in the Red Sea
    • 3.13. Trade performance remained subdued in 2023
    • 3.14. Global trade to rebound in 2024
    • 3.15. Labor market outlook
    • 3.16. March 2024 Breaks Global Temperature Records
    • 3.17. Economic damage of climate change

  • 4. Key macroeconomic indicators outlook

    • 4.1. GDP growth forecast
    • 4.2. Quarterly GDP trend – major economies
    • 4.3. Inflation rate forecast
    • 4.4. Industrial production trend in major economies
    • 4.5. Global tourism revival gaining momentum
    • 4.6. Unemployment trend in major economies

  • 5. External trade
  • 6. Public finances
  • 7. Stock market trends
  • 8. Equity, M&A deals and active Jobs
  • 9. Global economic outlook
  • 10. Appendix

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