Global Macroeconomic Outlook – Q2 2024 Update

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The global economy is projected to sustain a moderate growth trajectory, with GlobalData forecasting a GDP growth rate of 2.47% in 2024. This marks a slight decrease from the 2.62% recorded in 2023, followed by a modest increase to 2.55% projected for 2025. Tight monetary conditions continue to impact the housing and credit markets. However, the overall global economic activity remains relatively resilient, bolstered by declining inflation rates and improving private sector confidence. Despite these positive indicators, rising geopolitical tensions are expected to influence economic dynamics, contingent on the outcomes of global events.
Since the beginning of 2022, major economies have initiated a cycle of rate hikes, leading to historically high policy rates across most of them as of May 2024. However, due to easing inflationary pressures, major central banks such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may begin cutting rates in the second half of 2024. Meanwhile, countries including Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Switzerland have already started to cut rates in the first half of 2024.
Over the recent six-month period from October 2023 to March 2024, there has been a notable increase in consumer confidence across major economic groupings, including the EU27 nations, G20 countries, and G7 nations. This boost in consumer sentiment is primarily driven by factors such as easing inflationary pressures and a strengthening labor market. In contrast, the business confidence outlook has been more varied, with some regions experiencing slight growth while others witnessing a minor decline.

In the Q2 2024 update, GlobalData raised the global real GDP growth forecast for 2024 by 0.41 percentage points from the Q1 2024 update. This upward adjustment is due to increasing consumer confidence and a strengthening labor market in major advanced economies, coupled with strong expected performance in Asia-Pacific countries. Growth projections have been revised upward for all regions, except for the Middle East and Africa (MEA), where ongoing conflicts continue to impede economic progress.

Key Highlights

Regionally, the Asia-Pacific region is projected to be the fastest-growing, with a growth rate of 3.65% in 2024 and is expected to contribute around 55% to global growth. This is followed by the Middle East & Africa (2.84%), the Americas (2.04%), and Europe (1.16%).

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GlobalData’s Global Macroeconomic Outlook Report identifies, analyzes, and forecasts key development of the global economy. The report provides a 360-degree view of the economy which can be used as a strategic tool to understand market dynamics, business potential and direction of operations.

Table of Contents


Executive summary

Key developments – global economy

Geopolitical outlook 2024

Economic growth projections by region – Q2 2024 update

Region wise economic outlook 2024

Economic growth projections for 2024 heat map

Asia-Pacific region to account for around 55% of global growth in 2024

Real GDP growth forecast revision – major economies

Inflation exhibits a declining trend

Policy rate stays at elevated levels

Major currencies (LCU per $)

Energy price exhibits a rising trend in recent months

Business and consumer sentiment trend

Global supply chain pressure index rises due to attacks in the Red Sea

Trade performance remained subdued in 2023

Global trade to rebound in 2024

Labor market outlook

March 2024 Breaks Global Temperature Records

Economic damage of climate change

Key macroeconomic indicators outlook

GDP growth forecast

Quarterly GDP trend – major economies

Inflation rate forecast

Industrial production trend in major economies

Global tourism revival gaining momentum

Unemployment trend in major economies

External trade

Public finances

Stock market trends

Equity, M&A deals and active Jobs

Global economic outlook


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