HER2-Positive Breast Cancer – Epidemiology Forecast to 2030

Pages: 61 Published: August 31, 2021 Report Code: GDHCER281-21

The burden of diagnosed HER2+/HR+ breast cancer is expected to increase at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.70% from around 100,000 cases in 2020 to 114,000 cases in 2030 in the eight major markets (8MM*). This report reveals that the increase is partly attributed to the moderately rising trend in incidence in the 8MM, combined with underlying demographic changes in the respective markets.

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HER2-positive breast cancer consists of HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR- subtypes. In the 8MM, HER2+/HR+ was the most common subtype of HER2-positive breast cancer, followed by HER2+/HR- breast cancer.

Bishal Bhandari, PhD, Senior Epidemiologist at GlobalData, comments: “Although HER2+/HR+ was the most common type, GlobalData’s research shows that cases of HER2+/HR- breast cancer are also growing steadily in the 8MM. This is important as HER2-positive cancer overall is more aggressive than HER2-negative cancer.”

In the 8MM, according to GlobalData epidemiologists, the majority of diagnosed incident cases of HER2-positive cases were in stage I–III, and fewer than 10% of cases were in stage IV in 2020.

Bhandari adds: “It is promising development that the majority of breast cancer cases are now diagnosed at earlier stages, which improves breast cancer survival and response to treatment. However, due to a longer life expectancy in breast cancer patients, the overall number of individuals with breast cancer will continue to increase over time.”

*8MM: The US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, and urban China

Scope

  • HER2-Positive Breast Cancer Epidemiology Report and Model provide an overview of the risk factors and global trends of HER2-positive in the eight major markets (8MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Urban China).
  • This report also includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the following segmentations in ages 18 years and older across the 8MM: diagnosed incident cases of all invasive, HER2+/HR+, and HER2+/HR- breast cancer; diagnosed five-year prevalent cases of HER2+/HR+, and HER2+/HR- breast cancer; and diagnosed incident cases of HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR- breast cancer by cancer staging. Additionally, diagnosed incident cases of HER2+HR+ and HER2+/HR- breast cancer cases are further segmented by metastasis, and biomarker expression. HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR- breast cancer cases are also segmented by menopausal status.
  • The HER2-Positive Epidemiology Report and Model were written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
  • The Epidemiology Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.
  • The Epidemiology Model is easy to navigate, interactive with dashboards, and epidemiology-based with transparent and consistent methodologies. Moreover, the model supports data presented in the report and showcases disease trends over a 10-year forecast period using reputable sources.

Key Highlights

  • Breast cancer is the second most common cancer in the world and the most common cancer in women worldwide, accounting for 25.2% of all incident cases of female cancers, making the disease exceedingly prevalent. Breast cancer is classified based on human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) and hormone receptor (HR) status (American Cancer Society, 2019). HER2-/HR+ and HER2-/HR- were analyzed in the HER2-negative breast cancer report. This report explores HER2-positive breast cancer, namely, HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR- breast cancer.
  • GlobalData epidemiologists used age- and sex-specific diagnosed incidence and prevalence rates to forecast the diagnosed incident and prevalent cases, taking into account the significant relationship between age and HER2-positive breast cancer. GlobalData epidemiologists applied country-specific incidence rates of HER2-positive breast cancer wherever available, to each country’s population to obtain the number of estimated diagnosed incident cases.
  • The following data describes epidemiology of HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR- cases. In 2020, the 8MM had 97,308 diagnosed incident cases of HER2/HR+ breast cancer. This is expected to increase to 113,608 diagnosed incident cases by 2030, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 1.68%. In the 8MM, the diagnosed incident cases of HER2+/HR- breast cancer will increase from 53,824 cases in 2020 to 63,106 cases in 2030, at an AGR of 1.72%. This increase is partly attributed to the moderately rising trend in historical incidence in the 8MM, combined with underlying demographic changes in the respective markets. The early diagnosis and development of more effective therapies would improve survival from HER2-positive breast cancer.

Reasons to Buy

The HER2-Positive Breast Cancer Epidemiology series will allow you to:

  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global HER2-positive breast cancer market.
  • Quantify patient populations in the global HER2-positive market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
  • Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the HER2-positive cancer stages that present the best opportunities for HER2- positive therapeutics in each of the markets covered.
  • Understand magnitude of HER2-positive breast cancer market by biomarkers.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

| About GlobalData

1 HER2-Positive Breast Cancer: Executive Summary

1.1 Catalyst

1.2 Related Reports

1.3 Upcoming Reports

2 Epidemiology

2.1 Disease Background

2.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

2.3 Global and Historical Trends

2.4 Forecast Methodology

2.4.1 Sources Used

2.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods

2.5 Epidemiological Forecast for All Invasive and HER2-Positive Breast Cancer (2020-2030)

2.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of All Invasive Breast Cancer

2.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of All Invasive Breast Cancer

2.5.3 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR+ Breast Cancer

2.5.4 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR- Breast Cancer

2.5.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR+ Breast Cancer by Stages

2.5.6 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR- Breast Cancer by Stages

2.5.7 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR+ Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status

2.5.8 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR- Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status

2.5.9 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-Positive Breast Cancer by PD-1 and PD-L1 Expression

2.5.10 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-Positive Breast Cancer with Ki67 Expression

2.5.11 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-Positive Breast Cancer with NTRK and RET Expression

2.5.12 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-Positive Breast Cancer with Bone Metastasis

2.5.13 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-Positive Breast Cancer with Brain/CNS Metastasis

2.5.14 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-Positive Breast Cancer with IHC3+ Expression

2.5.15 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HER2-Positive Breast Cancer

2.6 Discussion

2.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

2.6.2 COVID-19 Impact

2.6.3 Limitations of Analysis

2.6.4 Strengths of Analysis

3 Appendix

3.1 Bibliography

3.2 About the Authors

3.2.1 Epidemiologist

3.2.2 Reviewers

3.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

3.2.4 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

3.3 Contact Us

List of Tables

Table 1: Summary of Newly Added Data Types

Table 2: Summary of Updated Data Types

Table 3: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for All Invasive HER2-Positive Breast Cancer

List of Figures

Figure 1: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR+ Breast Cancer, Women, N, Ages ≥18 Years, 2020 and 2030

Figure 2: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR- Breast Cancer, Women, N, Ages ≥18 Years, 2020 and 2030

Figure 3 : 8MM, Diagnosed Incidence of HER2+/HR+ Breast Cancer, Ages ≥18 Years, Women, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2010‒2030

Figure 4: 8MM, Diagnosed Incidence of HER2+/HR- Breast Cancer, Ages ≥18 Years, Women, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2010‒2030

Figure 5: 8MM, Sources Used and Not Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of All Invasive Breast Cancer

Figure 6: 8MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR- Breast Cancer

Figure 7: 8MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR- Breast Cancer by Stage

Figure 8: 8MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR- Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status

Figure 9: 8MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR- Breast Cancer by PD-1 and PD-L1 Expression

Figure 10: 8MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR- Breast Cancer by Ki67, NTRK, and RET Expression

Figure 11: 8MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR- Breast Cancer by Bone and Brain Metastasis

Figure 12: 8MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR- Breast Cancer by IHC3+ Expression

Figure 13: 8MM, Sources Used for Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR- Breast Cancer

Figure 14: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of All Invasive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2020

Figure 15: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of All Invasive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2020

Figure 16: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR+ Breast Cancer, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2020

Figure 17: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR- Breast Cancer, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2020

Figure 18: 8MM, Proportion of Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR+ Breast Cancer by Stage, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2020

Figure 19: 8MM, Proportion of Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR- Breast Cancer by Stage, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2020

Figure 20: 8MM, Proportion of Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR+ Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, %, 2020

Figure 21: 8MM, Proportion of Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+/HR- Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, %, 2020

Figure 22: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-Positive Breast Cancer by PD-1 and PD-L1 Expression, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2020

Figure 23: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-Positive Breast Cancer with Ki67 Expression, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2020

Figure 24: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-Positive Breast Cancer with NTRK and RET Expression, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2020

Figure 25: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-Positive Breast Cancer with Bone Metastasis, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2020

Figure 26: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-Positive Breast Cancer with Brain/CNS Metastasis, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2020

Figure 27: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-Positive Breast Cancer with IHC3+ Expression, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2020

Figure 28: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HER2-Positive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2020

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