Retail Banking in Spain – COVID-19 Impact Snapshot

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The Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak, dubbed COVID-19, is first and foremost a human tragedy, affecting millions of people globally. The contagious Coronavirus, which broke out at the close of 2019, has led to a medical emergency across the world, with the World Health Organization officially declaring the novel Coronavirus a pandemic on March 11, 2020.

Fears surrounding the impact of COVID-19 have already significantly impacted the global economy, with key markets across the world losing 20-50% of their value for the year to date. Many economists and institutions have cut their forecasts, with consensus global GDP growth currently at 2.6% for 2020 and many experts predicting the potential onset of recessionary environments.

Spain is among the worst affected countries globally, standing second in Europe after the UK with over 250,000 infections and more than 28,000 deaths. The pandemic has caused significant economic disruption and reversed Spain’s GDP growth. With the government now easing lockdown restrictions in a phased manner, a gradual recovery in the economy and in the banking industry could be seen.

This report focuses on the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak on the economy and the retail banking industry in Spain. Based on our proprietary datasets, the snap shot provides a detailed comparison between pre-COVID-19 forecasts and revised forecasts of total mortgage, consumer, credit card loan balances as well as deposit balances in terms of value and growth rates. It also offers information on measures taken by the government to combat Coronavirus.

Scope

– Spain’s economy and banking sector have been more deeply affected by coronavirus than countries in Northern Europe. Not only is Spain among the worst hit in terms of both infection and death rates, but its economy was already in a frail state before the outbreak.

– Much like governments across Europe, the Spanish government is supporting the banking sector with a €20bn ($22.4bn) program to secure bank loans to companies and other stimulus packages to promote lending.

– The government also adopted insolvency reforms to protect companies and Moratorium Ordinance for consumer loans to postpone the repayment of consumer loans for three months.

– The government’s guarantees on loans to SMEs and corporates will support borrowers' viability and hence banks' asset quality. However, earnings challenges will still intensify for banks due to weaker business volumes and rising loan impairment charges. For banks, the severity of losses will depend on whether the government’s measures are able to preserve businesses threatened with bankruptcy and help people re-enter the workforce.

Reasons to Buy

– Make strategic decisions using top-level revised forecast data on the Spanish retail lending and deposit industry.

– Understand the key market trends, challenges, and opportunities in the Spanish retail lending and deposit industry.

– Receive a comprehensive insight into the total consumer loans in Spain, including mortgages, personal and credit card loans as well as retail deposits balances.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

COVID-19 Update

Impact Assessment

Retail Deposits

Total Consumer Loans

Mortgage Loans

Credit Card Loans

Other Consumer Loans

COVID-19 Impact: Job Analysis

Appendix

Supplementary Data

Definitions

Methodology

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