Retail Savings and Investments in Switzerland – Coronavirus (COVID-19) Sector Impact

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The Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak, dubbed COVID-19, is first and foremost a human tragedy, affecting millions of people globally. The contagious Coronavirus, which broke out at the close of 2019, has led to a medical emergency across the world, with the World Health Organization officially declaring the novel Coronavirus a pandemic on March 11, 2020.

Fears surrounding the impact of COVID-19 have already significantly impacted the global economy, with most countries across the world registering dramatic declines in economic activity year-to-date. Many economists and institutions have cut their forecasts as a number of countries officially slipped into recession in Q1 2020. Similarly, Switzerland is expected to enter recession by the end of 2020, as COVID-19 is having a major impact on the local economy.

The ongoing pandemic has severely affected Switzerland’s export-oriented economy, resulting in a slowdown in exports, a fall in tourism, and a fall in the domestic consumption of goods and services. According to the Swiss government, the economy could lose an estimated CHF100bn ($103.3bn) in output in 2020 due to the pandemic, with the economy set to shrink by 6.2%. As the country is moving towards normalization with the easing of lockdown measures, we expect economic performance to pick up, which will benefit the retail savings and investments industry as well. However, significant uncertainties remain.

This report focuses on the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the Swiss economy and the country’s retail savings and investment market. It also highlights the measures adopted by the government to combat COVID-19. Based on our proprietary datasets, the snap shot contrasts GlobalData’s pre-COVID-19 forecasts and revised forecasts of total retail bond, deposits, equities and mutual funds holdings in terms of value and growth rates. It also analyses the effects on HNW wealth, examining the importance of different industries as a contributor to HNW wealth.

Scope

– Switzerland’s retail savings and investments are forecast to contract by 3.5% over the course of 2020, as economic productivity has dived thanks to the impacts of COVID-19. Though the easing of lockdown restrictions has gradually improved the performance of the stock market index, its performance still depicts heightened volatility as the pandemic remains a threat to the economy. Therefore, retail equity and mutual fund holdings are expected to take the brunt of the economy’s slowdown, with respective declines of 17.2% and 11.2% anticipated.

– Retail deposits and bond holdings are set to fare better than initially expected courtesy of a flight to safety away from risk assets. According to Credit Suisse, the savings rate of Swiss households rose significantly from 13% to 22% in Q1 2020. But more pronounced declines in risk asset holdings mean that GlobalData’s total retail holdings forecast for 2020 is 4.9 percentage points lower than before the onset of COVID-19.

– High-net-worth (HNW) wealth is forecast to contract by 2.5% during 2020. However, we expect the sectors with the largest contributions to HNW wealth (financial services, healthcare, and tech and communications) to hold up more robustly than others, aiding a rapid recovery. As a result, HNW wealth growth is forecast to bounce back to 10.6% in 2021.

– The healthcare sector weathered the crisis better than other sectors, as indicated by the performance of the Swiss SXI Bio+Medtech Index, which gained 20% in its value between April and June 2020 compared to the country’s flagship index gaining just 9.6%.

– Also working in Switzerland's favor is the low contribution to HNW wealth of industries expected to be strongly hit by COVID-19, such as retail fashion and luxury goods and hotels, restaurants, and leisure.

Reasons to Buy

– Make strategic decisions using top-level revised forecast data on the Swiss retail savings and investments industry.

– Understand the key market trends, challenges, and opportunities in the Swiss retail savings and investments industry.

– Receive a comprehensive insight into the retail liquid asset holdings in Switzerland, including deposits, mutual funds, equities, and bonds.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

COVID-19 Update

Impact Assessment

Retail Savings and Investments

Retail Bond Holdings

Retail Deposit Holdings

Retail Equity Holdings

Retail Mutual Fund Holdings

Appendix

Supplementary Data

Definitions

Methodology

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