Seasonal Influenza Vaccines – UK Drug Forecast and Market Analysis

Pages: 88 Published: November 21, 2012 Report Code: GDHC1012CFR

"GlobalData has released its new Country report, “Seasonal Influenza Vaccines – United Kingdom Drug Forecast and Market Analysis”. Seasonal Influenza is a respiratory infection caused by influenza virus that results in mild to severe symptoms, such as fever, cold and cough. The market is heavily driven by the sales of prophylactic vaccine treatments to prevent infection. Currently, trivalent intramuscular vaccines such as Sanofi’s Fluzone and Vaxigrip, GlaxoSmithKline’s Fluarix and FluLaval and Novartis’ Fluvirin garner the majority stake of the market. However, with the entrance of vaccines with novel routes of administration, such as AstraZeneca’s intranasal FluMist and Sanofi’s Fluzone IntraDermal, GlobalData projects a dramatic shift favoring the adoption of such vaccines over the traditional intramuscular vaccines. GlobalData also anticipates that manufacturers that launch quadrivalent formulations will steal market share, patient share, and revenue from the trivalent influenza vaccines currently available.

The British influenza vaccine market is valued at approximately $70.4 million in 2012. The expected drivers of growth include the recently announced influenza vaccine subsidies for children, launch of quadrivalent influenza vaccines and an increase in the elderly population.

The market leader is GSK’s Fluarix. Fluarix has established itself atop the British influenza vaccine market due to GSK’s home-field advantage, Fluarix’s history of safe and effective use (available in UK since 1988), and Fluarix’s low cost (almost 10% cheaper than the average cost of its competitors). GSK is expected to increase its UK market share with the introduction of a quadrivalent formulation of FluLaval in 2013."

Scope

Overview of seasonal influenza, including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.

Detailed information on the key drugs in the UK including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.

Sales forecast for the top drugs in the UK from 2012 to 2022.

Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting the UK seasonal influenza market.

Reasons to Buy

Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return

Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for seasonal influenza

Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential

Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance

Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012 to 2022 in the UK.

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 4

1.1 List of Tables 7

1.2 List of Figures 8

2 Introduction 9

2.1 Catalyst 9

2.2 Related Reports 9

2.3 Upcoming Related Reports 11

3 Disease Overview 12

3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 12

3.1.1 Etiology 12

3.1.2 Pathophysiology 16

3.2 Symptoms 17

3.3 Prognosis 17

4 Disease Management 18

4.1 Influenza Vaccination Policy 18

4.2 China 19

4.2.1 Influenza Vaccination Recommendations and Policies 19

4.2.2 Clinical Practice 19

5 Competitive Assessment 20

5.1 Overview 20

5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 20

5.3 Product Profiles – Major Brands 23

5.3.1 FluMist 23

5.3.2 Afluria 26

5.3.3 Vaxigrip/Mutagrip 29

5.3.4 Influvac 33

5.3.5 Agrippal 36

6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 40

6.1 Overview 40

6.2 Unmet Needs 40

6.2.1 Higher level of patient awareness 40

6.2.2 Increased efficacy in the elderly and young children (<2 years old) 41

6.2.3 Improved vaccine side-effect profiles 41

6.2.4 More efficient vaccine manufacturing process 42

6.2.5 More cost-effective vaccines 42

6.3 Gap Analysis 43

6.4 Opportunities 44

6.4.1 Expanded breadth of protection against viral strains 44

6.4.2 Increased duration of protection 44

6.4.3 T-cell involvement 44

7 Pipeline Assessment 45

7.1 Overview 45

8 Market Outlook 46

8.1 China 46

8.1.1 Forecast 46

8.1.2 Key Events 49

8.1.3 Drivers and Barriers 49

9 Appendix 51

9.1 Bibliography 51

9.2 Abbreviations 59

9.3 Methodology 60

9.4 Forecasting Methodology 60

9.4.1 Vaccine Coverage 60

9.4.2 Vaccines Included 61

9.4.3 Key Launch Dates 62

9.4.4 Influenza Vaccine Tender System Assumptions 63

9.4.5 General Pricing Assumptions 63

9.4.6 Individual Vaccine Assumptions 64

9.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 68

9.6 Primary Research – Prescriber Survey 69

9.7 About the Authors 70

9.7.1 Authors 70

9.7.2 Global Head of Healthcare 71

9.8 About GlobalData 72

9.9 Contact Us 72

9.10 Disclaimer 72

List of Tables

Table 1: Notable Influenza Pandemics 16

Table 2: Symptoms of Influenza 17

Table 3: Influenza Vaccination Recommendation Committees by Country 18

Table 4: Leading Influenza Vaccines, 2012 22

Table 5: Product Profile – FluMist 24

Table 6: FluMist SWOT Analysis, 2012 26

Table 7: Product Profile – Afluria 27

Table 8: Afluria SWOT Analysis, 2012 29

Table 9: Product Profile – Vaxigrip 30

Table 10: Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza Infection Rates in Vaccine or Placebo Recipients and their Household Contacts 31

Table 11: Vaxigrip SWOT Analysis, 2012 33

Table 12: Product Profile – Influvac 34

Table 13: Influvac SWOT Analysis, 2012 36

Table 14: Product Profile – Agrippal 37

Table 15: Agrippal SWOT Analysis, 2012 39

Table 16: Overall Unmet Needs – Current Level of Attainment 40

Table 17: Clinical Unmet Needs – Gap Analysis, 2012 43

Table 18: Sales Forecasts ($m) for Influenza Vaccines in China, 2012-2022 47

Table 19: Key Events Impacting Sales of Influenza Vaccines in China, 2012 49

Table 20: Influenza Vaccine Market – Drivers and Barriers, 2012 49

Table 21: Epidemiology and Market Forecast Chinese Influenza Vaccination Rates (%), 2012-2022 61

Table 22: Key Launch Dates 62

Table 23: Physicians Surveyed, By Country 69

List of Figures

Figure 1: Influenza Virus Structure 12

Figure 2: Sales for Influenza Vaccine in China by Route of administration, 2012-2022 48

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