Ukraine PESTLE Insights – A Macroeconomic Outlook Report

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Ukraine PESTLE Insights Report Overview

Ukraine was ranked 109th of 153 nations in the GCRI Q3 2023. The country’s GDP was $175.6 billion in 2023.   According to the Ukrainian government, Ukraine received significant financial aid from January to November 2023. Ukraine’s real GDP recorded a prominent annual increase in Q3 2023, marking the highest growth since Q3 2007. This follows six consecutive periods of contraction, primarily attributed to the base effect resulting from Russia’s invasion. Despite the challenging circumstances, the data suggests a modest economic recovery as businesses in less affected areas adapted, and certain foreign companies re-entered the market.

Key Sector’s Contribution to the Ukraine Economy (2019-2026)

Key Sector’s Contribution to the Ukraine Economy (2019-2026)

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GDP in 2023 $175.6 Billion
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Ukraine Macroeconomic Outlook - PESTLE Insights

Political Landscape

In December 2023, in collaboration with the EU and the Government of Sweden, the UNDP in Ukraine established 10 Recovery and Development Offices in conflict-affected communities. This initiative supports the nationwide effort led by the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities under the President of Ukraine, coordinating international cooperation at the local level.

Economic Landscape

The Ukrainian economy will grow significantly in 2024 owing to improvements in supply chain bottlenecks and increased investments across the sectors. The global demand for key export products is expected to stay robust in 2025. Ukraine exports a higher share of primary goods, such as cereals, animal and vegetable fats and oils as well as iron and steel due to its fertile land and a less developed industrial sector.

Social Landscape

In December 2023, the Ukrainian government warned that they might need to delay salary payments for public servants and pensions for millions of citizens unless the EU and US fulfill their commitments for financial aid early in 2024. Despite assurances, the anticipated funding from key allies has not materialized, prompting urgent efforts to secure a significant amount of external support for the coming year to cover public services and benefits.

Technological Landscape

In November 2023, Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation and the UK’s Department of Business and Trade inked an MoU, paving the way for a “tech bridge” to foster joint ventures between the two nations. This initiative aims to facilitate collaborative project implementation.

Legal Landscape

On December 13, 2022, Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada passed a law concerning National Minorities (Communities), meeting a prerequisite for EU accession negotiations. Aligned with EU directives, the law substitutes “national minority” with “national community”. It seeks to bolster Ukraine’s ethnopolitical legal framework, acknowledging the implications of independence, and adherence to European standards, and addressing challenges posed by Russia’s armed aggression.

Environmental Landscape

In May 2023, Ukraine and Germany jointly introduced the Renewables for a Resilient Ukraine – R2U project, aiming to benefit Ukrainian communities through a focus on green renewable energy and energy recovery. The initiative involves selecting up to 20 communities to undergo energy audits for critical infrastructure buildings. These buildings will then be equipped with renewable energy sources.

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In October 2023, the government announced to invest UAE912.2 million ($24.7 million) on Ukraine’s rail infrastructure and UAH916 million ($24.8 million) on road transport.

Key Highlights

According to the UNCTAD, Ukraine recorded foreign direct investment of $7.3 billion in 2021, which decreased to $848 million in 2022.

Reasons to Buy

  • Macroeconomic Outlook Report identifies the potential of the country as an investment destination by analyzing the political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental (PESTLE) structure.
  • PESTLE Insights provides a 360-degree view of the economy which can be used as a strategic tool to understand the market dynamics, business potentials, and direction of operations
  • Along with providing the country’s snapshot, the report captures the risk factors regarding the macroeconomic risks, political environment, legal environment, demographic and social structure effectiveness, technology & infrastructure, and natural and geographic aspects that might impact business.
  • This report also highlights key clusters/cities which contribute significantly to the country’s GDP and population along with major companies’ presence in these areas.

Fozzy Group

Table of Contents

List of Exhibits

Did You Know?

Country Highlights

Key Economic Updates

Country Snapshot

Political Landscape

Economic Landscape

Social Landscape

Technological Landscape

Legal Landscape

Environmental Landscape



Exhibit 1: Ukraine’s performance in terms of the country’s risk analysis in comparison to Eastern Europe and the world

Exhibit 2: Performance overview (score: 0-100)

Exhibit 3: Broad categories and weights behind the index

Exhibit 4: Key sectors contribution to the economy (2019–26f)

Exhibit 5: FDI inflows, FDI outflows, FDI inward stock and FDI outward stock (2018–22)

Exhibit 6: Greenfield FDI projects and net cross border M&As sales deals (2018–22)

Exhibit 7: Key infrastructure indicators

Exhibit 8: Real GDP and household consumption growth rate (2019–26f)

Exhibit 9: Real GDP growth rate comparison (2023e)

Exhibit 10: Volume of exports and imports growth (2019–26f)

Exhibit 11: Current account balance (2019–26f)

Exhibit 12: Top three commodity exports, % of total exports (2018–22)

Exhibit 13: Cereals exports, % of world’s total exports (2022)

Exhibit 14: Interest rates (January 2019 – January 2024)

Exhibit 15: Exchange rate and inflation (2019–26f)

Exhibit 16: Public finance (2019–26f)

Exhibit 17: General government debt (2019–26f)

Exhibit 18: Unemployment rate (2019–26f)

Exhibit 19: Average annual wages (2019–26f)

Exhibit 20: Labor cost index (2019–26f)

Exhibit 21: Rural/urban share of total population (1995, 2005, 2015, 2025f)

Exhibit 22: Age-group share of total population (1995, 2005, 2015, 2025f)

Exhibit 23: Gender split (1995, 2005, 2015, 2025f)

Exhibit 24: Internet users as a percentage of total population, mobile penetration rate and broadband penetration rate (2023e)

Exhibit 25: Number of patents granted per million population (2022)

Exhibit 26: High-technology exports, % of manufactured exports (2022)

Exhibit 27: Rule of law index (rankings) 2023

Exhibit 28: Corruption perceptions index (rankings) (2023)

Exhibit 29: Renewable energy, installed capacity (2019–23e)

Exhibit 30: CO2 emissions (2018–22)


List of Figures

Exhibit 1: Ukraine’s performance in terms of its country risk analysis in comparison to Eastern Europe and the world

Exhibit 2: Performance overview (score: 1-100)

Exhibit 3: Broad categories and weights behind the index

Exhibit 4: Ukraine Stock Exchange Index – PFTS Index (December 2021 – December 2022)

Exhibit 5: Ukraine exchange rate (December 2021 – December 2022)

Exhibit 6: Key sectors’ contribution to the economy

Exhibit 7: FDI inflows and outflows and FDI inward and outward stock (2017-21)

Exhibit 8: Value and number of greenfield FDI projects, and net cross border M&As purchases (2017-21)

Exhibit 9: Key infrastructure indicators

Exhibit 10: Real GDP and household consumption growth rate (2017-24f)

Exhibit 11: Real GDP growth rate comparison (2021)

Exhibit 12: Exports, imports and trade balance (2017-2024f)

Exhibit 13: Current account balance (2017-21)

Exhibit 14: Top three commodity exports, % of total exports (2018-21)

Exhibit 15: Iron and steel, % of world’s total (2021)

Exhibit 16: Interest rates (December 2017 – December 2022)

Exhibit 17: Exchange rate and inflation (2017-24f)

Exhibit 18: Public finance (2017-24f)

Exhibit 19: General government debt (2017-24f)

Exhibit 20: Unemployment (2017-24f)

Exhibit 21: Labor force participation rate (2017-24f)

Exhibit 22: Employment by sector (2017-24f)

Exhibit 23: Rural/urban share of total population (1995, 2005, 2015, 2025)

Exhibit 24: Age-group share of total population (1995, 2005, 2015, 2025)

Exhibit 25: Gender split (1995, 2005, 2015, 2025)

Exhibit 26: Internet users as a percentage of total population, mobile penetration rate and broadband penetration rate (2021)

Exhibit 27: Number of patents granted per million people (2021)

Exhibit 28: High-technology exports, % of manufactured exports (2020)

Exhibit 29: Doing business in Ukraine 2020

Exhibit 30: Corruption perception index (rankings) (2021)

Exhibit 31: Renewable energy, installed capacity (2016-20)

Exhibit 32: CO2 emissions (2017-21)

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