EpiCast Report: Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) – Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

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Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic autoimmune disease of multifactorial origin that can affect any organ or organ system, resulting in a broad spectrum of clinical manifestations ranging from dermatological involvement to multi-organ failure with episodes of relapses and remissions. Because of its dynamic nature, this disease has an unpredictable natural course leading to high rates of morbidity and even death. The incidence and prevalence of SLE varies globally and the variation is attributed to a combination of elements such as the characteristics of the population studied, sex, ethnicity, geographical locations, occupational factors, familial traits, time of study, and the diagnostic criteria used.

In 2015, the 7MM had 475,698 diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE, for all ages, men and women combined. The US accounted for approximately 53% of the diagnosed prevalent cases (253,215) in the 7MM. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that there will be 498,420 diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE in the 7MM by 2025, with an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 0.48% during the forecast period. The diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE are projected to increase in all markets, except for Germany and Japan, where there were slight decreases during the forecast period. The increase in the prevalent cases of SLE in the US and the UK are attributed to a forecast increase in SLE prevalence over time and changes in the underlying population. GlobalData epidemiologists held the prevalence constant for the remaining markets; thus any changes observed in the remaining markets are attributed to changes in the population.

GlobalData epidemiologists utilized data from country-specific studies published in peer-reviewed journals and governmental documents to provide the age- and sex-specific prevalence of diagnosed SLE in the respective markets. The forecast methodology was consistent across all of the 7MM to allow for a meaningful comparison among them.

Scope

The Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) EpiCast Report and EpiCast Model provide an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global and historical trends of SLE in the seven major markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast of diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE (as per the 1997 revised American College of Rheumatology classification) segmented by sex, age, and severity. This report also provides an epidemiological forecast of the diagnosed prevalent cases of lupus nephritis (LN) among SLE patients for the 7MM, segmented into both 1995 WHO classifications (1985 for Japan) and 2003 ISN/RPS classifications.

The SLE epidemiology report and model were written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.

The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 7MM.

The EpiCast Model is easy to navigate, interactive with dashboards, and epidemiology-based with transparent and consistent methodologies. Moreover, the model supports data presented in the report and showcases disease trends over a 10-year forecast period using reputable sources.

Table of Contents

1Table of Contents

1.1List of Tables

1.2List of Figures

2Epidemiology

2.1Disease Background

2.2Risk Factors and Comorbidities

2.3Global Trends

2.3.1SLE and LN Prevalence

2.3.2LN Classification

2.4Forecast Methodology

2.4.1Sources Used Tables

2.4.2Forecast Assumptions and Methods

2.4.3Sources Not Used

2.5Epidemiological Forecast for SLE (2015–2025)

2.5.1Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE

2.5.2Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE

2.5.3Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of SLE

2.5.4Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence of SLE

2.5.5Diagnosed Prevalent Cases SLE Segmented by Severity

2.5.6Prevalent Cases of LN

2.5.7Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LN Segmented by Class

2.6Discussion

2.6.1Epidemiological Forecast Insight

2.6.2Limitations of the Analysis

2.6.3Strengths of the Analysis

3Appendix

3.1Bibliography

3.2Primary Research – Prescriber Survey

3.3About the Authors

3.3.1Epidemiologists

3.3.2Reviewers

3.3.3Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

3.4About GlobalData

3.5About EpiCast

3.6Disclaimer

Table

Table 1: The 1982 Revised ACR Criteria For Classification of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Table 2: WHO and ISN/RPS Classification Systems for LN

Table 3: Risk Factors for SLE

Table 4: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Prevalence of SLE

Table 5: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Prevalence of Mild and Moderate/Severe SLE

Table 6: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Prevalence of LN

Table 7: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LN Classified by the WHO Classification

Table 8: 7MM, Sources Used for Classifying LN by the ISN/RPS Classification

Table 9: 7MM, Sources Not Used in Epidemiological Analysis of SLE

Table 10: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Select Years 2015–2025

Table 11: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE, Both Sexes, N, Row (%), 2015

Table 12: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE, All Ages, By Sex, N, Row (%), 2015

Table 13: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE, All Ages, Men and Women, By Severity, N, Row (%), 2015

Table 14: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LN, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Select Years 2015–2025

Table 15: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LN, Both Sexes, All Ages, by WHO Class, Row (%), 2015

Table 16: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LN, Both Sexes, All Ages, by ISN/RPS Class, Row (%), 2015

Table 17: High-Prescribing Physicians (Non-KOLs) Surveyed, by Country

Figures

Figure 1: SLE Forecast Case Flow Map

Figure 2: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, 2015–2025

Figure 3: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE, by Age, Both Sexes, N, 2015

Figure 4: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE, All Ages, By Sex, N, 2015

Figure 5: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence (Cases per 100,000 Population) of SLE, All Ages, by Sex, 2015

Figure 6: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE, All Ages, Men and Women, By Severity, N, 2015

Figure 7: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LN, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, 2015?2025

Figure 8: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LN, Both Sexes, All Ages, by WHO Class, 2015

Figure 9: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LN, Both Sexes, All Ages, by ISN/RPS Class, 2015

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