Chronic Hepatitis B (CHB) Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast to 2034

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is a liver disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV). HBV is transmitted via blood, semen, and other body fluids, and is commonly spread through sexual contact, needle sharing, accidental needlesticks, and vertically from a pregnant person to the newborn (Mayo Clinic, 2024). HBV infection can be prevented with a vaccine. For most people, HBV infection is a short-term, acute illness resulting in a full recovery in less than six months. For others, infection lasts longer than six months and is labeled chronic. Many people infected with HBV, both acutely and chronically, will have no symptoms (CDC, 2025b). CHB occurs when a person’s immune system cannot fight the HBV infection and fails to eliminate it effectively after six months. In this report, CHB is defined as a positive test for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in the blood serum. This definition is consistent with that of the World Health Organization (World Health Organization, 2024).
The risk factors for CHB are the same as those for HBV infection. These include birth in a region of high endemicity, injection drug use, men who have sex with men, low socioeconomic status, and male sex. Comorbid diseases with CHB include HIV, hepatitis C, and other sexually transmitted infections.
This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical epidemiological trends for CHB in the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). The report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the total and diagnosed prevalent cases of CHB. The total prevalent cases are segmented by age (0–17 years and 18 years or older) and sex. The diagnosed prevalent cases of CHB are segmented by age (0–17 years and 18 years or older and by five-year age groups) and sex. The diagnosed prevalent cases of CHB are also segmented based on HBeAg negative and positive status, and cirrhosis negative and positive status. The diagnosed prevalent cases of CHB with cirrhosis are further segmented by compensated and decompensated cirrhosis. Additionally, the diagnosed prevalent cases of CHB are further segmented by HBeAg negative no cirrhosis, HBeAg positive no cirrhosis, and cases with cirrhosis. These segmented cases are further segmented by treatment status. This epidemiology forecast for CHB is supported by data obtained from peer-reviewed articles and population-based studies. The forecast methodology was kept consistent across the 7MM to allow for a meaningful comparison of the forecast total and diagnosed prevalent cases of CHB across markets.
In the 7MM, the total prevalent cases of CHB are expected to increase from 3,886,599 cases in 2024 to 3,901,293 cases in 2034, at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 0.04%. In the 7MM, the diagnosed prevalent cases of CHB are expected to decrease from 2,085,419 cases in 2024 to 2,058,800 cases in 2034, at a negative AGR of 0.13%. In 2034, Japan will have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of CHB in the 7MM, with 577,578 diagnosed prevalent cases, whereas Spain will have the fewest diagnosed prevalent cases with 143,911 cases. GlobalData epidemiologists attribute the changes in the total prevalent cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of CHB to changing prevalence rates and population dynamics in each market.

Scope

This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical epidemiological trends for CHB in the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). The report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the total and diagnosed prevalent cases of CHB. The total prevalent cases are segmented by age (0–17 years and 18 years or older) and sex. The diagnosed prevalent cases of CHB are segmented by age (0–17 years and 18 years or older and by five-year age groups) and sex. The diagnosed prevalent cases of CHB are also segmented based on HBeAg negative and positive status, and cirrhosis negative and positive status. The diagnosed prevalent cases of CHB with cirrhosis are further segmented by compensated and decompensated cirrhosis. Additionally, the diagnosed prevalent cases of CHB are further segmented by HBeAg negative no cirrhosis, HBeAg positive no cirrhosis, and cases with cirrhosis. These segmented cases are further segmented by treatment status. This epidemiology forecast for CHB is supported by data obtained from peer-reviewed articles and population-based studies. The forecast methodology was kept consistent across the 7MM to allow for a meaningful comparison of the forecast diagnosed prevalent cases of CHB across these markets.

Reasons to Buy

The CHB Epidemiology series will allow you to –

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global CHB markets.

Quantify patient populations in the global CHB markets to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.

Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for CHB therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Understand the magnitude of the CHB population by age, sex, HBeAg status, cirrhosis status, combined HBeAg and cirrhosis status, and treatment status.