Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) – Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast – April 2020

Pages: 35 Published: April 30, 2020 Report Code: GDHCHT093

First reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, now more than 846,200 confirmed cases of COVID-19 are spread across 187 countries worldwide. The US is now the most heavily affected country worldwide. Forecasts expect new cases to decrease for most countries in the top markets reporting cases except for Russia, which has not yet reached peak.

People at risk for severe COVID-19 include population with underlying health problems, such as respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, some rare diseases, and diabetes. New analysis available this month for severely obese populations likely to be at risk for sever COVID-19.

The global CFR has increased to more than 7%. The age groups most affected by the disease remains those ages 50 years and older, and men are reported to see higher rates of deaths.

The epidemiology analysis is limited by several data restrictions. Testing availability and criteria differ significantly among countries. All countries’ reported confirmed cases underestimate the number of actual infected people. And mortality reporting is not standardized.

Scope

The epidemiology report covers the following areas: current epidemiology situation and forecast, populations at risk, case fatality rate, testing and undiagnosed cases comparison, and data limitations.

The forecast include three-scenario analysis of peak-week and return-to-normal week analysis for the top markets. The populations at risk area focuses on 9MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, China, and South Korea) and provides size of the populations that have COPD, heart disease, diabetes, select rare diseases and diabetes. The case fatality rate area provides comparison in case fatality and proprotion of deaths by age in six major markets (Netherlands, China, South Korea, US, and Italy). Data limitations provide readers with in-depth understanding of the caveats surronding the COVID-19 data.

Key Highlights

The report provide forecast for peak-week and return-to-normal week that will help the reader plan in this uncertain time.

Reasons to Buy

Obtain in-depth understanding of epidemiology data for COVID-19.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Contents

1 Current Epidemiology Situation

1.1 Current Epidemiology Situation

1.2 New Cases Trend in Top 10 Infected Countries

2 Forecast for Key Markets

2.1 Infection Peak and Decline Forecasts for Select Countries

2.2 Epidemic Curves and Projections for Select Countries

3 High-Risk Populations in Nine Major Markets

3.1 High-Risk Group Analysis

3.2 High-Risk Group Analysis: Diabetes, Heart Disease, and Severe Obesity

4 Case Fatality Rate Comparison

4.1 Case Fatality Rate Comparison

4.2 Proportion of Deaths by Age Group

4.3 Proportion of Deaths by Sex

5 Testing and Undiagnosed Case Comparison

5.1 Proportion of Tested Population Diagnosed with COVID-19

5.2 Studies of Asymptomatic Cases Estimate a Much Higher Case Count than Suggested by Official Reports

6. Data limitations

6.1 Drawbacks to Available Data

7 Appendix

7.1 Methodology

7.2 Abbreviations

7.3 Related Reports

7.4 Sources

7.5 About the Authors

7.6 About GlobalData

7.7 Contact Us

List of Tables

Table 1. Current Epidemiology Situation

Table 2. Top 10 Infected Countries

Table 3. Estimated Peak Weeks and Decline to Zero New Cases Weeks for Top Infected Countries (Excluding China)​

Table 4. Case Fatality Rates by Age Group

List of Figures

Figure 1. Projections of Daily New Confirmed Cases for Select Countries, Since 100th Confirmed Case​

Figure 2. COVID-19 in Patients with Underlying Health Conditions (Respiratory Disease, Cardiovascular Disease, Cancer, Obesity Class III, Diabetes, and Selected Rare Disease) in the Nine Major Markets (9MM)

Figure 3. COVID-19 in Patients with Diabetes in Nine Major Pharmaceutical Markets

Figure 4. COVID-19 in Patients with Heart Disease in Nine Major Pharmaceutical Markets

Figure 5. COVID-19 in Patients with Severe Obesity in Nine Major Pharmaceutical Markets

Figure 6. Case Fatality Rates by Age Group

Figure 7. Proportion of Deaths by Age Group

Figure 8. Proportion of Deaths by Sex

Figure 9. Cumulative Tested Population, Cumulative Confirmed Cases, and Positive Testing Rate

Figure 10. Undiagnosed and Diagnosed Cases: Modelling Estimate Based on Real-World Data 

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