EpiCast Report: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) – Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

Lung cancer is a disease of uncontrolled cell growth in the lung tissues. It is one of the most commonly occurring cancers in the world (IARC, 2016). Lung cancer is classified into three main types: non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), small cell lung cancer, and lung carcinoid tumor. NSCLC is the most common type of lung cancer, making up about 85% of all lung cancers. Small cell lung cancer accounts for 10-15% of lung cancers, while carcinoid tumors are the rarest, occurring in fewer than 5% of lung cancers

In the 8MM, the diagnosed incident cases of NSCLC will increase from 791,563 cases in 2015 to 1,069,516 cases in 2025, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 3.51% per year. When examining the AGR by individual market, GlobalData forecasts that all markets will see an increase in the diagnosed incident cases of NSCLC during the forecast period. In 2015, there were 1,199,845 five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of NSCLC in the 8MM, which is expected to increase to 1,626,132 cases by 2025, at an AGR of 3.55%.

The relative survival of NSCLC varies by subtype, where adenocarcinoma has the highest survival, followed by squamous cell carcinoma, and large cell carcinoma. In the alternate forecast, due to the forecast increase in adenocarcinoma during 2015-2025, GlobalData epidemiologists expect an increase in relative survival and, consequently, an increase in the number of five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of NSCLC.

GlobalData epidemiologists also provided two forecasts to address potential changes in the epidemiology of NSCLC during the forecast period 2015-2025: one in which the historical distribution of histology subtypes are held constant throughout the forecast period, and an alternate forecast where the histology subtypes are forecast to change over time. The two forecasts provide different outlooks on the market depending on the baseline assumptions.

Scope

The Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) EpiCast Report and EpiCast Model provide an overview of the risk factors and global trends of NSCLC in the 8MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Urban China). It also includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast of the diagnosed incident and five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of NSCLC in these markets from 2015–2025. The incident cases are further segmented by sex and age, cancer stage at diagnosis (IA, IB, IIA, IIB, IIIA, IIIB, and IV), cancer histology subtype (adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, large cell carcinoma, and other), and the presentation of the biomarker mutations by histology subtype (EGFR, KRAS, ALK, METExon 14, PIK3CA, BRAF V600E, and ROS1). The report also provides an alternate forecast scenario that takes into account potential changes in the diagnosed incident cases distribution by histology subtype.

The NSCLC epidemiology report and model were written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.

The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.

The EpiCast Model is easy to navigate, interactive with dashboards, and epidemiology-based with transparent and consistent methodologies. Moreover, the model supports data presented in the report and showcases disease trends over a 10-year forecast period using reputable sources.

Table of Contents

1Table of Contents

1.1List of Tables

1.2List of Figures

2Epidemiology

2.1Disease Background

2.2Risk Factors and Comorbidities

2.3Global Trends

2.3 ...

1Table of Contents

1.1List of Tables

1.2List of Figures

2Epidemiology

2.1Disease Background

2.2Risk Factors and Comorbidities

2.3Global Trends

2.3.1Incidence

2.3.2Histological Subtypes

2.3.3Relative Survival

2.4Forecast Methodology

2.4.1Sources Used

2.4.2Forecast Assumptions and Methods – Base Forecast

2.4.3Forecast Assumptions and Methods – Alternate Forecast

2.4.4Sources Not Used

2.5Epidemiological Forecast for NSCLC (2015–2025) – Base Forecast

2.5.1Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC

2.5.2Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC

2.5.3Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC

2.5.4Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of NSCLC

2.5.5Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Clinical Stage at Diagnosis

2.5.6Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histology Subtype

2.5.7Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of Adenocarcinoma

2.5.8Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of Squamous Cell Carcinoma

2.5.9Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC

2.5.10Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC

2.6Epidemiological Forecast for NSCLC (2015–2025) – Alternate Forecast

2.6.1Alternate Forecast – Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histology

2.6.2Alternate Forecast – Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC

2.7Discussion

2.7.1Epidemiological Forecast Insight

2.7.2Limitations of the Analysis

2.7.3Strengths of the Analysis

3Appendix

3.1Bibliography

3.2About the Authors

3.2.1Epidemiologists

3.2.2Reviewers

3.2.3Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

3.3About GlobalData

3.4About EpiCast

3.5Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Lung Cancer

Table 2: Histological Subtype Distribution Among NSCLC

Table 3: 8MM, Relative Survival

Table 4: 8MM, Sources ...

Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Lung Cancer

Table 2: Histological Subtype Distribution Among NSCLC

Table 3: 8MM, Relative Survival

Table 4: 8MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incidence of NSCLC

Table 5: 8MM, Sources Used for Cancer Stage at Diagnosis

Table 6: 8MM, Sources Used for NSCLC by Histological Subtypes

Table 7: US, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC Segmented by Mutation

Table 8: 5EU, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC Segmented by Mutation

Table 9: Japan, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC Segmented by Mutation

Table 10: China (Urban), Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC Segmented by Mutation

Table 11: 8MM, Sources Used for Relative Survival of NSCLC

Table 12: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages =18 Years, N, Select Years 2015–2025

Table 13: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015

Table 14: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Ages =18 Years, N (Row %), 2015

Table 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Clinical Stage at Diagnosis, Ages =18 Years, N, 2015

Table 16: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histological Subtypes, Ages =18 Years, N, 2015

Table 17: 8MM, Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of Adenocarcinoma, Both Sexes, Ages =18 Years, N, 2015

Table 18: 8MM, Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of Squamous Cell Carcinoma, Both Sexes, Ages =18 Years, N, 2015

Table 19: 8MM, Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, N, Ages =18 Years, 2015

Table 20: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages =18 Years, N, Select Years 2015–2025

Table 21: 8MM, Alternate Forecast, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histology Subtypes, Ages =18 Years, N, 2015 and 2025

Table 22: 8MM, Alternate Forecast, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages =18 Years, N, Select Years 2015–2025

List of Figures

Figure 1: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages =18 Years, N, Select Years 2015–2025

Figure 2: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases ...

Figure 1: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages =18 Years, N, Select Years 2015–2025

Figure 2: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, N, 2015

Figure 3: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Ages =18 Years, N, 2015

Figure 4: 8MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of NSCLC, Ages =18 Years, N, 2015

Figure 5: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages =18 Years, N, Select Years 2015–2025

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