GlobalData Gas Market Outlook 2026

Foreword

Executive Summary

– Executive view

– The gas market at a glance

– GlobalData's headline calls

Part 1 Drivers, Scenarios, and Assumptions

1.1 Macro and policy backdrop

1.2 Scenarios and cases

1.3 Key assumptions

Part 2 Global Balance

2.1 The 2026 supply shock and resulting balance

2.2 Where the market is heading to 2035

2.3 The big questions

Part 3 Demand Outlook

3.1 The 2026 price shock

3.2 Global demand trajectory

3.3 Demand by sector

3.4 Demand by region

3.5 Spotlight: AI and data-center power demand

3.6 Peak-demand synthesis

Part 4 Supply Outlook

4.1 Global production trajectory

4.2 Supply breakdown: regions, resource type, basins, and terrain

4.3 Upstream economics and cost curves

4.4 Reserves and investment

Part 5 Trade, LNG, and Infrastructure

5.1 Pipeline trade flows

5.2 The LNG wave: liquefaction, regasification, and the balance

5.3 LNG economics and cost curves

5.4 Shipping, contracting, and gas processing

Part 6 Storage and Seasonal Security

6.1 Underground storage capacity against demand

6.2 Seasonal security: Europe's 2026 refill test

6.3 Deliverability and security through the outlook

Part 7 Prices and Competitiveness

7.1 Regional price outlook

7.2 Competitiveness and switching

Part 8 The Long View and Implications

8.1 Structural signposts toward 2050

8.2 Implications by stakeholder

8.3 Forecast performance and benchmarking

Annexes

Annex A Data tables

Annex B Scenario design and assumptions

Annex C Methodology

Annex D Regional and country groupings

Annex E Definitions and glossary

Annex F Data sources and references

Table 0.3: The gas market at a glance, Reference Case

Table 1.1: Macro driver dashboard by region

Table 1.2: Policy and market events timeline, 2026–2027

Table 1.3: GMO 2026 scenarios: what each case changes and the headline results

Table 1.4: Price decks by scenario ($/MMBtu)

Table 2.1: Global gas balance to 2035 (bcm)

Table 3.1: World gas demand by sector, 2019–2035 (bcm)

Table 3.2: Country module: the twelve largest gas markets in 2035 (bcm)

Table 3.3: AI Boom: incremental data-center gas-fired generation above the Reference Case (TWh)

Table 3.4: Peak-year league table: region by sector, Reference Case

Table 4.1: Upstream plans against export routes, by country (bcm)

Table 4.2: US gas production by play (bcm): field-level path, remaining gas, and route to the LNG terminals

Table 7.1: GlobalData Reference price deck by market ($/MMBtu)

Table 8.1: Signposts to watch, 2035 to 2050

Table 8.2: Implications matrix: stakeholder by key call

Table 8.3: How the 2026 calls are tracking against primary data

Table A.1: Natural gas demand by region, Reference Case (bcm)

Table A.2: World natural gas demand by sector, Reference Case (bcm)

Table A.3: Natural gas production by region, Reference Case and field-level plans (bcm)

Table A.4: Regional net position, production minus demand, Reference Case (bcm)

Table A.5: Scenario results: world demand, supply and balance (bcm)

Table A.6: Supply deferred for lack of an export route, Reference Case (bcm)

Table B.1: Scenario design: levers by case

Table D.1: Regional groupings used in this report

Table E.1: Definitions, units and conversions

Figure 1: World natural gas demand and supply by scenario, 2015–2035 (bcm)

Figure 2: Price decks by scenario: TTF, JKM and Henry Hub, 2018–2035 ($/MMBtu)

Figure 3: 2026 change on 2025 by region: demand and supply (bcm)

Figure 4: Global natural gas supply against demand, 2020–2035 (bcm)

Figure 5: Supply against demand by region, 2025 and 2035 (bcm)

Figure 6: Net trade position by country, 2035 (production minus demand, bcm)

Figure 7: Upstream plans against export routes: supply deferred for lack of an outlet, by country and year (bcm)

Figure 8: Demand change by region and largest-change countries, 2026 vs 2025 (bcm)

Figure 9: Demand change by region, 2024–2028 (indexed, 2024 = 100)

Figure 10: World demand, 2022–2026: notional, effective (IEA-implied), and without the Hormuz shock (bcm)

Figure 11: World natural gas demand, 2015–2035, with the range across scenarios (bcm)

Figure 12: Demand growth by country income group, 2025–2035

Figure 13: Demand growth by sector, 2025–2035 (bcm)

Figure 14: World natural gas demand by sector, 2020–2035 (bcm)

Figure 15: Demand by main sector, indexed to 2019 = 100, 2019–2035

Figure 16: Demand share by sector, 2025 and 2035 (%)

Figure 17: Demand growth by region, 2025–2035 (bcm)

Figure 18: Natural gas demand by region, 2020–2035 (bcm)

Figure 19: Top 15 countries by natural gas demand, 2035 (bcm)

Figure 20: Power-sector natural gas demand by region, 2020–2035 (bcm)

Figure 21: AI Boom against the Reference Case: additional gas demand by year and by region (bcm)

Figure 22: Natural gas demand by region and main sector, 2035 (bcm)

Figure 23: Global natural gas production, 2020–2035 (bcm)

Figure 24: Natural gas supply by lifecycle layer, 2020–2035 (bcm)

Figure 25: Production growth by country, 2025–2035, Reference against field-level plans (bcm)

Figure 26: Natural gas production by region, 2020–2035 (bcm)

Figure 27: US gas production by play against the production US LNG would need, 2020–2035 (bcm)

Figure 28: Global gas supply cost curve (remaining reserves)

Figure 29: Median break-even gas price by region

Figure 30: Remaining recoverable gas in the asset base by country, field level (bcm)

Figure 31: Largest increases in gas upstream capex, 3-year trailing average, 2024 to 2027 ($ billion)

Figure 32: Gas capex intensity: average annual gas capex 2024–2026 per bcm of 2025 production ($ million per bcm)

Figure 33: Regional net-trade position, 2025, 2030 and 2035 range across scenarios (bcm)

Figure 34: Largest cross-border pipeline flows, 2025, and change on 2024 (bcm)

Figure 35: How Europe meets its gas demand, 2019–2025 (bcm; 30 JODI reporters)

Figure 36: Cross-border pipeline flows against recorded corridor capacity, 2025

Figure 37: Where the largest gas importers get their gas, 2025 (share of supply)

Figure 38: LNG export capacity against the import requirement in Asia Pacific and Europe, 2020–2035, by scenario (bcm)

Figure 39: LNG trade by exporting and importing region, 2025 (bcm)

Figure 40: Europe's LNG imports by supplier, 2019 and 2025 (bcm)

Figure 41: Global LNG liquefaction capacity by project stage, 2010–2035 (mtpa)

Figure 42: LNG liquefaction capacity at construction or commissioning stage, by first-capacity year, 2026–2031 (mtpa)

Figure 43: LNG liquefaction capacity still in development, by FID date and current stage (mtpa)

Figure 44: LNG liquefaction utilization by exporting country, 2025

Figure 45: Regional net trade position against LNG liquefaction and regasification capacity, 2030 (bcm)

Figure 46: Net trade position against LNG capacity, selected exporters and importers, 2030 (bcm)

Figure 47: US LNG export capacity against the exportable surplus in the supply model, 2025–2035 (bcm)

Figure 48: Monthly LNG exports of Qatar, the US and Australia, January 2025 to July 2026 (bcm)

Figure 49: LNG liquefaction and regasification capacity, 2010–2035 (bcm/y)

Figure 50: Unit cost of new LNG liquefaction capacity by region ($ per tonne of annual capacity)

Figure 51: LNG long-term contracts: volume in force and volume expiring, 2025–2040 (mtpa)

Figure 52: Gas processing capacity in development and annual capital expenditure

Figure 53: Underground storage against demand: days of average demand held as working gas, 2025 and 2035

Figure 54: Underground storage: active working gas and planned or announced additions by region (bcm)

Figure 55: Gas in storage in Europe, end of month, 2026 against 2021–2025 (bcm)

Figure 56: Underground storage by site type: working gas and days to empty at peak withdrawal (active sites)

Figure 57: Gas price landscape by market, Reference Case, 2035 ($/MMBtu)

Figure 58: Gas price benchmark outlook, 2015–2035 ($/MMBtu)

Figure 59: Price spreads by scenario: TTF minus Henry Hub and JKM minus TTF, 2023–2035 ($/MMBtu)

Figure C.1: Framework schematic: GlobalData natural gas demand model

Figure C.2: Framework schematic: GlobalData natural gas supply model