Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast to 2034

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Published: June 25, 2025 Report Code: GDHCER339-25-ST

Report Overview
Table of Contents
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Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is a heterogeneous group consisting of cancers of the mouth, including the lip, tongue, gum, floor of mouth, palate, and other parts of mouth (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision [ICD-10] code = C00–C06); the salivary glands (ICD-10 code = C07–C08); the pharynx, including the tonsil, oropharynx, nasopharynx, pyriform fossa, hypopharynx, other mouth/pharynx (ICD-10 code = C09–C14); the nose, sinuses, and related structures (ICD-10 code = C30–C31), and the larynx (ICD-10 code = C32) (World Health Organization, 2013). HNSCC usually begins in the squamous cells that line the moist mucosal surfaces of the tissues and organs of the head and neck. More than 80% of all oral cavity and pharynx cancers are estimated to be squamous cell carcinomas (Howlader et al., 2020; National Cancer Institute, 2021).

In the 8MM, the diagnosed incident cases of HNSCC are expected to increase from 297,707 cases in 2024 to 357,960 cases in 2034, at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 2.02%. In 2034, urban China will have the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of HNSCC in the 8MM, with 166,519 diagnosed incident cases, whereas Italy will have the fewest diagnosed incident cases with 13,121 cases. In the 8MM, the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HNSCC are expected to increase from 915,055 cases in 2024 to 1,082,521 cases in 2034, at an AGR of 1.83%. GlobalData epidemiologists attribute the increase in the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases and diagnosed incident cases of HNSCC to the changes in diagnosed incidence rate, regression trend analysis, changes in survival rates, and population dynamics in each market.

Scope

This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends for HNSCC in the eight major markets (8MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and urban China). The report provides a 10-year epidemiological forecast of the diagnosed incident cases of HNSCC. In this analysis, HNSCC is divided into the following groups –

– Cancers of the lip, oral cavity, pharynx, nasal cavity/paranasal sinuses, and larynx (ICD-10 = C00–C06, C09, C12–C14, C30–C32, and C10 [HPV-])

– Oropharynx cancer (ICD-10 = C10)

– Nasopharynx cancer (ICD-10 = C11)

– Other HNSCC sites – salivary gland cancer (ICD-10 = C07–C08)

Each of the four groups is further segmented by risk factor (tobacco smoking history), histology distribution (squamous cell and non-squamous cell), and clinical stage at diagnosis among the squamous cell carcinomas. Additionally, the diagnosed incident cases of oropharynx cancer were further segmented by risk factor (human papillomavirus infection positive [HPV+] and negative [HPV-]) and the diagnosed incident cases nasopharynx cancer were segmented by the risk factor of Epstein Barr virus infection positive (EBV+). The report provides a 10-year epidemiological forecast of the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of each of the four groups. The model accompanying this report also provides epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation and programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression (by combined positive score [CPS]), and surgical and radiotherapy versus systemic treatment among the diagnosed incident cases of the four groups.

Reasons to Buy

TheHead and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) epidemiology series will allow you to:

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global HNSCC market.

Quantify patient populations in the global HNSCC market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.

Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups that present the best opportunities for HNSCC therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

List of Contents

List of Tables

List of Figures

About GlobalData

1 Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Executive Summary

1.1 Catalyst

1.2 Related reports

1.3 Upcoming reports

2 Epidemiology

2.1 Disease background

2.2 Risk factors and comorbidities

2.3 Global and historical trends

2.4 8MM forecast methodology

2.4.1 Sources

2.4.2 Forecast assumptions and methods

2.4.3 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed incident cases of HNSCC

2.4.4 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed incident cases of HNSCC by histology distribution

2.4.5 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed incident cases of HNSCC by clinical stage at diagnosis for squamous cell carcinoma

2.4.6 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed incident cases of oropharynx cancer by risk factor (HPV+ and HPV-)

2.4.7 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed incident cases of nasopharynx cancer by risk factor (EBV+)

2.4.8 Forecast assumptions and methods: tobacco smoking history

2.4.9 Forecast assumptions and methods: five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HNSCC

2.5 Epidemiological forecast for HNSCC (2024–34)

2.5.1 Diagnosed incident cases of lip, oral cavity, pharynx, nasal cavity/paranasal sinuses, and larynx cancer (ICD-10 = C00–C06, C09, C12–C14, C30–C32, and C10 [HPV-])

2.5.2 Diagnosed incident cases of lip, oral cavity, pharynx, nasal cavity/paranasal sinuses, and larynx cancer (ICD-10 = C00–C06, C09, C12–C14, C30–C32, and C10 [HPV-]) by risk factor, histology distribution, and stage at diagnosis

2.5.3 Five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of lip, oral cavity, pharynx, nasal cavity/paranasal sinuses, and larynx cancer (ICD-10 = C00–C06, C09, C12–C14, C30–C32, and C10 [HPV-])

2.5.4 Diagnosed incident cases of oropharynx cancer (ICD-10 = C10)

2.5.5 Diagnosed incident cases of oropharynx cancer by risk factors, histology distribution, and stage at diagnosis

2.5.6 Diagnosed incident cases of nasopharynx cancer (ICD-10 = C11)

2.5.7 Age-specific diagnosed incident cases of nasopharynx cancer

2.5.8 Sex-specific diagnosed incident cases of nasopharynx cancer

2.5.9 Diagnosed incident cases of nasopharynx cancer by risk factors, histology distribution, and stage at diagnosis

2.5.10 Five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of nasopharynx cancer

2.5.11 Diagnosed incident cases of salivary gland cancer (ICD-10 = C07–C08)

2.5.12 Age-specific diagnosed incident cases of salivary gland cancer

2.5.13 Sex-specific diagnosed incident cases of salivary gland cancer

2.5.14 Diagnosed incident cases of salivary gland cancer by risk factors, histology distribution, and stage at diagnosis

2.5.15 Five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of salivary gland cancer

2.6 Discussion

2.6.1 Epidemiological forecast insight

2.6.2 Limitations of the analysis

2.6.3 Strengths of the analysis

3 Appendix

3.1 Bibliography

3.2 About the authors

3.2.1 Epidemiologist

3.2.2 Reviewers

3.2.3 Vice President of Disease Intelligence and Epidemiology

3.2.4 Global Head of Pharma Research, Analysis, and Competitive Intelligence

Table

Table 1: Summary of newly added data types

Table 2: Summary of updated data types

Table 3: Risk factors and comorbid conditions associated with HNSCC

Table 4: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of lip, oral cavity, pharynx, nasal cavity/paranasal sinuses, and larynx cancer by risk factor, histology distribution, and stage at diagnosis, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, N, 2024

Table 5: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of oropharynx cancer by risk factor, histology distribution, and stage at diagnosis, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, N, 2024

Table 6: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of nasopharynx cancer by risk factors, histology distribution, and stage at diagnosis, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, N, 2024

Table 7: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of salivary gland cancer by risk factor, histology distribution, and stage at diagnosis, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, N, 2024

Figures

Figure 1: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of HNSCC, both sexes, N, ages ≥18 years, 2024 and 2034

Figure 2: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HNSCC, both sexes, N, ages ≥18 years, 2024 and 2034

Figure 3: 8MM, diagnosed incidence of HNSCC, men and women (cases per 100,000 population), ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 4: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalence of HNSCC, men and women (%), ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 5: 8MM, sources used and not used to forecast diagnosed incident cases of lip, oral cavity, pharynx, nasal cavity/paranasal sinuses, and larynx cancer (ICD-10: C00–C06, C09, C12–C14, C30–C32)

Figure 6: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed incident cases of oropharynx cancer (ICD-10 = C10), nasopharynx cancer (ICD-10 = C11), and salivary gland cancer (ICD-10 = C07–C08)

Figure 7: 8MM, sources used to forecast five-year prevalent cases of lip, oral cavity, pharynx, nasal cavity/paranasal sinuses, and larynx cancer (ICD-10: C00–C06, C09, C12–C14, C30–C32), oropharynx cancer (ICD-10 = C10), nasopharynx cancer (ICD-10 = C11), and salivary gland cancer (ICD-10 = C07–C08)

Figure 8: 8MM, sources used to forecast the risk factors and histology distribution among diagnosed incident cases of lip, oral cavity, pharynx, nasal cavity/paranasal sinuses, and larynx cancer (ICD-10: C00–C06, C09, C12–C14, C30–C32), oropharynx cancer (ICD-10 = C10), nasopharynx cancer (ICD-10 = C11), and salivary gland cancer (ICD-10 = C07–C08)

Figure 9: 8MM, sources used to forecast the stage at diagnosis among diagnosed incident cases of lip, oral cavity, pharynx, nasal cavity/paranasal sinuses, and larynx cancer (ICD-10: C00–C06, C09, C12–C14, C30–C32), oropharynx cancer (ICD-10 = C10), nasopharynx cancer (ICD-10 = C11), and salivary gland cancer (ICD-10 = C07–C08)

Figure 10: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of lip, oral cavity, pharynx, nasal cavity/paranasal sinuses, and larynx cancer, n, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 11: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of lip, oral cavity, pharynx, nasal cavity/paranasal sinuses, and larynx cancer, N, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 12: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of oropharynx cancer, N, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 13: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of nasopharynx cancer, N, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 14: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of nasopharynx cancer by age, N, both sexes, 2024

Figure 15: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of nasopharynx cancer by sex, N, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 16: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of nasopharynx cancer, N, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 17: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of salivary gland cancer, N, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 18: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of salivary gland cancer by age, N, both sexes, 2024

Figure 19: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of salivary gland cancer by sex, N, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 20: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of salivary gland cancer, N, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, 2024

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