Hydrogen Transition Outlook and Trends – Q1 2026

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An uptick in project activity took place across Q4 2025, with 24 projects being announced, in comparison to 19 projects in the previous quarter.
This coincides with an overall increase in project activity over the course of 2025. Despite industry headwinds, announced and planned projects increased by 12.5%. Similarly, the number of operational projects increased by 32%, with over 110 projects being executed over the course of the year.
Despite the positive trends across project volume, average project scale across new announcements continues to fall as developers increasingly opt for smaller-scale projects. For example, the average scale of projects announced in Q4 2025 stood at 15ktpa per project. This compares to 58ktpa in Q4 2024, reflecting a marked decrease in industry confidence, particularly across projects that aim to serve offtakers.
Although the bulk of project activity and capacity remains green hydrogen, blue hydrogen remains the largest source of active capacity and continues to hold an increasing share of post-feasibility capacity. This reflects the importance of blue hydrogen for scaling low-carbon hydrogen production in the near-term and an increasing number of governments adopting a technology-neutral approach that offers support to both blue and green projects.

Scope

Global hydrogen outlook and trends. Breakdown of hydrogen capacity by stage of development, top capacities per country, top companies with hydrogen capacity, location and scale of largest upcoming low-carbon hydrogen projects and key players, outlook of hydrogen deal trends, global hydrogen policy map, and key policy developments from the previous quarter.

Key Highlights

Despite developers’ struggle to secure offtakers, merchant projects (which aim to sell hydrogen to third parties) continue to account for the highest proportion of overall pipeline projects. However, captive projects (which are embedded in an existing industrial facility and where all of the hydrogen has an immediate use case) holds an increased share of the projects that started operations in 2025, at 22%.

The share of captive projects was higher still among projects announced in 2025, where this type of project accounted for 30% of total announcements. Similarly, hybrid projects (which aim to produce hydrogen or derivatives for an existing use-case and sell the remainder) accounted for a higher share of projects starting operations in 2025 compared to its share of the overall pipeline. These trends indicate that business models with lower exposure to offtakers are currently more likely to reach later stages of development.

Reasons to Buy

Identify the market trends within the region and key players in hydrogen technologies.

Develop market insight of current, in development and announced capacity and latest trends of the sector.

Understand the region's different scenarios for 2030 based on the likeliness of the projects.

Understand how and where the market is growing as it is rapidly scales to become a key technology for the global energy transition

CWP Global
Intercontinental Energy Corp
Mirning Green Energy Ltd
Green Hydrogen International Corp
Inpex Corp
Adani Enterprises Ltd
TotalEnergies SE
GEP Global
ACME Cleantech Solutions Pvt Ltd
Egyptian Electricity Transmission Co
BP Plc
National Technology Enterprises Co
OQ SAOC; Shell plc
Fortescue Future Industries Pty Ltd
Möhring Energie GmbH
Hyundai Motor Co
Hy2gen AG
Destiny Energy Pte Ltd
Canadian Power to X Partners Inc
BASF SE
EnBW Energy Solutions GmbH
Scandinavian Horizon AB
Kellington Group Berhad
Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners
Jearrard Energy Resources
RWE AG
Parex Resources Inc
Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd
Bluemark Energy
Lone Cypress Energy Services
INERATEC GmbH
Verbundnetz Gas AG
Credit Agricole SA
Bpifrance Participations SA
Qair International SAS
Plug Power Inc
Venture Kick
Roland Bartholet
COREangels Climate
Kickfund AG
Neology Hydrogen SA
UK Oil & Gas Plc
Hydrogen Refuelling Solutions SA
Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Technology Equipment Co
Taranis Investments Ltd
Asterion Ventures
360 Capital Partners SAS
Spark Cleantech
Frontier Energy Ltd
Allianz SE
Finnish Industry Investment Ltd
Taaleri Investments Ltd
Suomen Tavara ja Raha Oy
Nordic Ren-Gas Oy

Table of Contents

Overview

Low Carbon Hydrogen Capacity Outlook

Deals & Contracts

Key Policy Developments

Table

Capacity share change between Q1 2025 – Q1 2026

The world’s largest upcoming hydrogen projects globally

The largest projects announcements in Q4 2025

Hydrogen-related M&A and capital raisings activity in Q4 2025

Policy developments

Figures

A snapshot of the low-carbon hydrogen market

Active and announced capacity, as of Q1 2026

Regional capacity breakdown, as of Q1 2026

Project count by capacity band based on active and announced projects

Breakdown of captive vs merchant projects

Countries with the highest cumulative capacity

Hydrogen capacity scenarios to 2030

Companies’ net capacity share

Hydrogen deal trends quarterly comparison, Q4 2023 – Q4 2025

Hydrogen policy map

Hydrogen Transition Outlook and Trends – Q1 2026 standard reports
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