Major Depressive Disorder: Epidemiology Report and Forecast to 2035

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Major depressive disorder (MDD), also known as clinical depression, represents one of the most pervasive and debilitating mental health conditions globally. MDD is clinically defined by a constellation of cognitive and physical symptoms persisting for at least two weeks, as established by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5-TR) (American Psychiatric Association, 2026). MDD is a complex, multifaceted medical illness characterized by persistent depressed mood, anhedonia, recurrent thoughts of death, and physical and cognitive symptoms. MDD can severely compromise individual quality of life owing to the disorder itself as well as related medical comorbidities, social factors, and impaired functional outcomes (Marx et al., 2023). Treatment for MDD commonly involves pharmacological therapy with antidepressant medications, psychotherapy, or a combination of both. While evidence-based interventions ranging from pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy to advanced neuromodulation offer significant relief to many, a substantial portion of individuals experience treatment-resistant depression (TRD) (Charpeaud et al., 2017).
In the 8MM, the 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD are expected to increase from 53,187,010 cases in 2025 to 54,161,849 cases in 2035, at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 0.18%. In 2035, the US will have the highest number of 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD in the 8MM, with 22,426,893 cases, and Japan will have the fewest 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD with 2,049,221 cases. The 12-month total prevalent cases of TRD are expected to increase from 10,096,693 cases in 2025 to 10,296,664 cases in 2035, at an AGR of 0.20%. In 2035, the US will have the highest number of 12-month total prevalent cases of TRD in the 8MM, with 4,283,537 cases, and Japan will have the fewest 12-month total prevalent cases of TRD with 245,620 cases. GlobalData epidemiologists attribute the increase in the 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD and 12-month total prevalent cases of TRD to changes in population dynamics and the prevalence rate in each market.

Scope

This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global and historical trends for MDD in the eight major markets (8MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Canada). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD based on studies that used the American Psychiatric Association’s (APA) Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Fifth Edition (DSM-5) criteria. The 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD (including diagnosed and undiagnosed) are further segmented by age (18 years and older), sex, and severity (mild, moderate, and severe) in these markets. The model also provides the 12-month total prevalent cases of TRD in the 8MM markets. This epidemiology forecast for MDD is supported by data obtained from peer-reviewed articles and population-based studies. The forecast methodology was kept consistent across the 8MM to allow for a meaningful comparison of the forecast diagnosed prevalent cases of MDD across these markets.

Reasons to Buy

The Major depressive disorder (MDD) epidemiology series will allow you to:

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global MDD market.

Quantify patient populations in the global MDD market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.

Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups that present the best opportunities for MDD therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

List of Tables

List of Figures

1 Executive Summary

1.1 Catalyst

1.2 Related reports

1.3 Upcoming reports

2 Epidemiology

2.1 Disease background

2.2 Risk factors and comorbidities

2.3 Global and historical trends

2.4 8MM forecast methodology

2.4.1 Sources

2.4.2 Forecast assumptions and methods

2.4.3 Forecast assumptions and methods: 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD

2.4.4 Forecast assumptions and methods: 12-month total prevalent cases of TRD

2.4.5 Forecast assumptions and methods: 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD by severity

2.5 Epidemiological forecast for MDD (2025–35)

2.5.1 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD

2.5.2 12-month total prevalent cases of TRD

2.5.3 Age-specific 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD

2.5.4 Sex-specific 12-month total prevalent cases of TRD

2.5.5 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD by severity

2.6 Discussion

2.6.1 Epidemiological forecast insight

2.6.2 Limitations of the analysis

2.6.3 Strengths of the analysis

3 Appendix

3.1 Bibliography

3.2 About the Authors

3.2.1 Epidemiologist

3.2.2 Reviewers

3.2.3 Vice President of Disease Intelligence and Epidemiology

3.2.4 Global Head of Pharma Research, Analysis, and Competitive Intelligence

About GlobalData

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Table

Table 1: Summary of newly added data types

Table 2: Summary of updated data types

Table 3: Risk factors and comorbidities for MDD

Figures

Figure 1: 8MM, 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD, both sexes, N, age ≥18 years, 2025 and 2035

Figure 2: 8MM, 12-month total prevalent cases of TRD, both sexes, N, ≥18 years, 2025 and 2035

Figure 3: 8MM, 12-month total prevalence of MDD, men and women, %, ≥18 years, 2015–35

Figure 4: 8MM, sources used and not used to forecast the 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD

Figure 5: 8MM, sources used to forecast the total prevalent cases of TRD

Figure 6: 8MM, sources used to forecast the 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD by severity

Figure 7: 8MM, 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD, N, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, 2025

Figure 8: 8MM, 12-month prevalent cases of TRD, N, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, 2025

Figure 9: 8MM, 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD by age, N, both sexes, 2025

Figure 10: 8MM, 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD by sex, N, ages ≥18 years, 2025

Figure 11: 8MM, 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD by severity, N, ages ≥18 years, 2025

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