Malaria: Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2027

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 Malaria: Executive Summary

2.1 GlobalData Projects Moderate Growth for the Malaria Market from 2017 to 2027

2.2 Biopharmaceutical Industry Effectively Leveraging Public-Private Partnerships to Advance Novel Malaria Products

2.3 Significant Unmet Needs Will Be Partially Met During the Forecast Period

2.4 Opportunities Will Exist for New Malaria Therapeutics and Prophylactics that Fulfill Unmet Needs

2.5 Diverse Pipeline Therapies and First Generation Malaria Vaccines Positioned to Begin Addressing Unmet Needs

2.6 What Do Physicians Think?

3 Introduction

3.1 Catalyst

3.2 Related Reports

3.3 Upcoming Related Reports

4 Disease Overview

4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology

4.1.1 Etiology

4.1.2 Pathophysiology

4.1.3 Uncomplicated Malaria

4.1.4 Severe Malaria

4.2 Quality of Life

5 Epidemiology

5.1 Disease Background

5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

5.3 Global and Historical Trends

5.3.1 DRC

5.3.2 Ghana

5.3.3 Kenya

5.3.4 Nigeria

5.3.5 India

5.3.6 Indonesia

5.4 Forecast Methodology

5.4.1 Sources

5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods

5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Malaria (20172027)

5.5.1 Confirmed Incident Cases of Malaria

5.5.2 Age-Specific Incident Cases of Malaria

5.5.3 Sex-Specific Incident Cases of Malaria

5.5.4 Confirmed Deaths from Malaria

5.5.5 Confirmed Incident Cases by Plasmodium Species

5.5.6 P. falciparum Cases with K13 Propeller Mutations

5.5.7 Seroprevalence of Plasmodium Infection in Pregnant Women

5.6 Discussion

5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

5.6.2 Limitations of Analysis

5.6.3 Strengths of Analysis

6 Current Treatment and Prevention Options

6.1 Overview

6.2 Diagnosis and Treatment

6.2.1 Diagnosis

6.2.2 Treatment Guidelines and Leading Prescribed Drugs

6.3 Non-Drug Preventative Interventions

6.4 Drug Therapy Procurement

7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

7.1 Overview

7.2 Single-Dose Cure to Improve Compliance

7.3 Improved Treatment Options for P. vivax and P. ovale Infections

7.4 Drugs with Novel Mechanisms of Action to Combat Artemisinin Resistance

7.5 Expanded Options for Difficult-to-Treat Patient Populations

7.6 Options to Block Transmission

8 R&D Strategies

8.1 Overview

8.1.1 Next Generation Therapeutics

8.2 Clinical Trial Design

8.2.1 Controlled Human Malaria Infection (CHMI) Trial Design

8.2.2 Desired Endpoints and Entry Criteria

8.2.3 Combination Therapy Studies

9 Pipeline Assessment

9.1 Overview

9.2 Other Therapeutics and Prophylactics in Development

9.2.1 Therapeutics

9.2.2 Whole Organism Vaccines

9.2.3 Protein-Targeted Vaccines

10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis

10.1 Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Products

10.1.1 Therapeutic Products

10.1.2 Prophylactic Products

10.2 Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Malaria Products

10.2.1 Therapeutic Products

10.2.2 Prophylactic Products

10.3 Competitive Assessment

10.3.1 Therapeutic Products

10.3.2 Prophylactic Products

10.4 Top-Line 10-Year Forecast

11 Appendix

11.1 Bibliography

11.2 Abbreviations

11.3 Methodology

11.3.1 Forecasting Methodology

11.3.2 Diagnosed Patients

11.3.3 Percent Drug-Treated Patients

11.3.4 Drugs and Vaccines Included in Each Prophylactic and Therapeutic Class

11.3.5 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates

11.3.6 General Pricing Assumptions

11.3.7 Individual Drug Assumptions

11.3.8 Individual Vaccine Assumptions

11.3.9 Pricing of Pipeline Agents

11.4 Primary Research – KOLs Interviewed for This Report

11.5 Primary Research – Prescriber Survey

11.6 About the Authors

11.6.1 Analyst

11.6.2 Therapy Area Director

11.6.3 Epidemiologist

11.6.4 Managing Epidemiologist

11.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

11.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

11.7 About GlobalData

11.8 Contact Us

11.9 Disclaimer

Table 1: Malaria: Key Metrics in the 6M

Table 2: Symptoms Associated with Uncomplicated Malaria

Table 3: Clinical and Laboratory Features for P. falciparum Severe Malaria.

Table 4: Estimated Gain in Life Expectancy in Different WHO Regions Due to Reduction in Malaria Mortality

Table 5: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Malaria

Table 6: 6M, Confirmed Incident Cases of Malaria, Men and Women, All Ages, Select Years, 2017–2027

Table 7: 6M, Confirmed Deaths from Malaria, Men and Women, All Ages, Select Years 2017–2027

Table 8: Treatment Guidelines for Uncomplicated Malaria

Table 9: Most Prescribed Drugs for Uncomplicated Malaria by ACT Brand in the 6M, 2017

Table 10: Malaria Treatment Guidelines for Special Risk Patients

Table 11: Clinical and Laboratory Features for P. falciparum Severe Malaria

Table 12: US PMI Fiscal Year 2017 ACT Procurement for 6M African Supported Countries

Table 13: Malaria R&D Desired Target Candidate Profiles for Single Exposure Radical Cure and Prophylaxis Approach

Table 14: MMV Supported Pipeline Therapeutics Active Against Artemisinin-Resistant P. falciparum and P. vivax

Table 15: Pipeline Therapeutics with Potential SERCaP Potential Active Against Artemisinin Resistant P. falciparum and P. vivax strains

Table 16: Late-stage Pipeline Products for Malaria, 2017

Table 17: Early-Stage Pipeline Therapeutics and Prophylactics in Development for Malaria, 2018

Table 18: Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Therapeutics – Malaria

Table 19: Clinical Benchmark of Key Prophylactics – Malaria

Table 20: Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Therapeutics – Malaria

Table 21: Commercial Benchmark of Key Prophylactics – Malaria

Table 22: Key Events Impacting Sales for Malaria, 2017–2027

Table 23: Malaria Market – Global Drivers and Barriers, 2017–2027

Table 24: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for Malaria

Table 25: Key Historical and Projected Patent Expiry Dates for Malaria

Table 26: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country

Figure 1: Global (6M) Sales Forecast by Country for Malaria in 2017 and 2027

Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of Pipeline Therapeutics for Malaria

Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of Pipeline Prophylactics for Malaria

Figure 4: Malaria Therapeutic Targets of Plasmodium Life Cycle

Figure 5: Stages of Malaria

Figure 6: 6M, Age-Standardized Confirmed Incidence of Malaria, Men, 2007–2027

Figure 7: 6M, Age-Standardized Confirmed Incidence of Malaria, Women, 2007–2027

Figure 8: Sources Used and Not Used for Calculation of Confirmed Incident Cases and Deaths

Figure 9: Sources Used and Not Used for Calculation of Cases by Plasmodium Species and K13 Mutations

Figure 10: Sources Used and Not Used for Calculation of Pregnant Women

Figure 11: Sources Used and Not Used for Calculation of Seroprevalence of Plasmodium Infection in Pregnant Women

Figure 12: 6M, Age-Specific Confirmed Incident Cases of Malaria, Men and Women, 2017

Figure 13: 6M, Sex-Specific Confirmed Incident Cases of Malaria, All Ages, 2017

Figure 14: 6M, Confirmed Incident Cases of Malaria by Plasmodium Species, Men and Women, All Ages, 2017

Figure 15: 6M, P. falciparum Cases with K13 Propeller Mutations, Men and Women, All Ages, 2017

Figure 16: 6M, Seroprevalence of Plasmodium Infection in Pregnant Women, 2017–2027

Figure 17: Illustration of Malaria Patient Treatment Journey

Figure 18: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in Malaria

Figure 19: Overview of the Clinical-Stage Pipeline in Malaria

Figure 20: Key Phase II/III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for Malaria in the 6M During the Forecast Period

Figure 21: Competitive Assessment of Key Pipeline Therapeutics Benchmarked Against the SOC, Coartem

Figure 22: Competitive Benchmark Assessment of Key Pipeline Prophylactics Against Marketed Prophylactics

Figure 23: Global (6M) Sales Forecast by Country for Malaria Therapeutics and Prophylactics in 2017 and 2027

Figure 24: Global Sales Forecast by Therapeutic and Prophylactic Product Class for Malaria in 2017 and 2027