Mexico Construction Market Size, Trend Analysis by Sector, Competitive Landscape and Forecast to 2030 (Q3 2026)
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The construction industry in Mexico is expected to grow by 2% in real terms in 2026, recovering part of the 3% contraction in 2025, with growth driven almost entirely by public investment. After cutting public physical investment by 28.3% in real terms in 2025 as part of its fiscal consolidation, the government has resumed spending on its priority projects, notably passenger rail lines and power infrastructure. As a result, infrastructure and energy and utilities construction will together contribute 2.2 percentage points to growth in 2026, led by rail infrastructure (20.9%) and electricity and power (11.9%), while commercial, industrial, institutional, and residential construction will subtract 0.2 percentage points combined. Official data shows that the recovery gathered pace in mid-2026. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), construction value-add grew by 4.8% year-on-year (YoY) in Q2 2026, following a 0.7% decline in Q1, and seasonally adjusted construction output rose by 6.7% YoY in July 2026. Meanwhile, private investment remains the main weakness, partly influenced by the US decision not to extend the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) at its July 2026 joint review.
Over the remainder of the forecast period, the industry is expected to register an average annual growth rate of 3.2% from 2027 to 2030, supported by investment in transport, energy, and data center infrastructure. The 2027 Economic Package allocates MXN1.03 trillion ($55.1 billion), or 2.6% of GDP, to public physical investment, a real increase of 3.5% from 2026, according to the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO). However, Pemex, the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), and new passenger rail lines account for 46% of the total. With the government also aiming to narrow the fiscal deficit, delivery of the MXN5.6 trillion ($299.4 billion) Infrastructure Investment Plan for Development with Well-Being 2026–2030 will depend on mixed public-private financing. In energy, the CFE’s 2026–30 Development Program involves an investment of MXN651 billion ($34.8 billion) to add 18.6GW of new generation capacity by 2030, of which 15.2GW will be renewable, and 7,545km of transmission lines.
GlobalData’s Construction in Mexico – Key Trends and Opportunities to 2030 (Q3 2026) report provides detailed market analysis, information, and insights into Mexico’s construction industry, including:
• Mexico’s construction industry’s growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity
• Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in Mexico’s construction industry
• Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline
Scope
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Mexico. It provides:
• Historical (2021–2025) and forecast (2026–2030) valuations of the construction industry in Mexico, featuring details of key growth drivers.
• Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector
• Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.
• Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants
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Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures
Evaluate competitive risk and success factors
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