North America Energy Transition by Key Sectors and Companies Driving Development

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Published: April 08, 2025 Report Code: GDUKOG144957-ST

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Recent political changes, chiefly Donald Trump taking office for the second time in Q1 2025, have shaken the markets, and have had a significant impact on a range of energy transition technologies, particularly wind power, energy storage, and electric vehicles. This report will assess how recent tariffs will affect the region’s energy transition, as well as the development stage of a range of energy transition technologies, including renewables, energy storage, electric vehicles, renewable refineries, CCUS and hydrogen. It will also highlight who the current and future leaders are for each of these technologies, and which North American country stands out for active and upcoming capacity.

Recent political changes, chiefly Donald Trump taking office for the second time in Q1 2025, have shaken the markets, and have had a significant impact on a range of energy transition technologies, particularly wind power, energy storage, and electric vehicles, as the President issued a series of executive orders that prioritize fossil fuels over renewables. Key policies impacting the energy sector include the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, restrictions on wind project leases, imposition of tariffs, and the termination of the electric vehicle mandate. This report will assess how these technologies will be impacted, especially in light of the recent tariffs, with a particular focus on the Chinese supply chain. Although Trump's policies are likely to slow the region's energy transition, renewable power capacity additions, particularly solar PV, will still enable North America to increase the share of renewable energy in its total power capacity mix from 41% in 2025 to an estimated 61% in 2035. Canada is expected to lead the region with a 72% renewable share in 2035, largely driven by its significant hydropower resources. Other technologies, including energy storage, electric vehicles, renewable fuels, CCUS, and hydrogen, will play pivotal roles in the region's energy transition.

Scope

North American climate targets, CO2 emissions, Trump’s recent tariffs, renewable energy potential, leaders in renewable energy and energy storage, renewable energy policies, power consumption and demand, renewable power capacity and generation, decommissioning of thermal power, energy storage capacity, electric vehicle sales, upcoming renewable refineries, SAFs, CCUS outlook, upcoming CCS projects, hydrogen policies, upcoming hydrogen capacity by stage, type and end use.

Key Highlights

• Since taking office for the second time, US President Donald Trump has issued a series of executive orders that prioritize fossil fuels over renewables. Key policies impacting the energy sector include the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, restrictions on wind project leases, imposition of tariffs, and the termination of the electric vehicle mandate.

• Although Trump's policies are likely to slow the region's energy transition, renewable power capacity additions, particularly solar PV, will still enable North America to increase the share of renewable energy in its total power capacity mix from 41% in 2025 to an estimated 61% in 2035. Canada is expected to lead the region with a 72% renewable share in 2035, largely driven by its significant hydropower resources.

• Other technologies, including energy storage, electric vehicles, renewable fuels, CCUS, and hydrogen, will play pivotal roles in the region's energy transition. However, these technologies are at varying stages of development and are subject to different levels of risk, especially in light of Trump's recent tariffs.

Reasons to Buy

• Assess key changes the Trump administration has implemented to shift the US’ focus away from renewables and back to fossil fuel development and exports.

• Assess how the recent Trump tariffs will impact key energy transition technologies, and which countries have the US tariffs affected the most.

• Identify who the key players are in a range of energy transition technologies, in terms of owners, as well as equipment manufacturers and EPC providers.

• Identify the development stage and legislative framework the following energy transition technologies are currently in, amid geopolitical changes: renewables, energy storage, EVs, renewable fuels, CCUS, and hydrogen.

NextEra Energy
Iberdrola SA
Berkshire Hathaway Inc
Repsol SA
Engie
Toyota
Tesla
Stellantis
Marathon Petroleum
Azure Sustainable Fuels Corp
DG Fuels
ExxonMobil
Occidental Petroleum
Archer-Daniels-Midland
Air Products and Chemicals
ExxonMobil
Avina Clean Hydrogen Inc
RWE AG
Brookfield Corp
Intersect Power Inc
Invenergy LLC
Solar Proponent LLC
Shell plc
The AES Corp
Electricite de France SA
Orsted AS
Enel SpA
Energias de Portugal SA
Pattern Energy Group
Invenergy LLC
XPLR Infrastructure LP
Swinerton Renewable Energy Inc
McCarthy Building Companies
First Solar Inc
Quanta Services Inc
MA Mortenson Co
EMJ Corp
Rosedin Electric Inc
PCL Constructors Inc
SOLV Energy LLC
TotalEnergies SE
First Solar Inc
JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd
Canadian Solar Inc
Hanwha Solutions Corp
Trina Solar Co Ltd
JA Solar Technology Co Ltd
LONGi Green Energy Technology Co Ltd
Maxeon Solar Technologies Ltd
Waaree Energies Ltd
Vestas Wind Systems AS
MasTec Inc
Quanta Services Inc
Renewable Energy System Holdings Ltd
Siemens Energy AG
Fagen Inc
Borea Constitution ULC
Acciona SA
Amec Black & Donald Ltd
General Electric Co
Nordex SE
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd
Enercon GmbH
Suzlon Energy Ltd
Senvion SA
Clipper Windpower LLC
Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd
Chevron Corp
Valero Energy Corp
Darling Ingredients Inc
HF Sinclair Corp
Neste Corp
CVR Energy Inc
ExxonMobil Corp
Global Clean Energy
Eni SpA
Nacero Inc
Gron Fuels LLC
Phillips 66
Next Renewables Fuels Inc
Gevo Inc
CVR Energy Inc
Calumet Inc
Prairie State Energy Campus LLC
The Mitchell Group Inc
Abu Dhabi National Oil Corp
BW Group
Clean Hydrogen Works
Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd
Calpine Corp
Nebraska Public Power District
Basin Electric Power Coop
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
Pembina Pipeline Corp
TC Energy Corporation
Equinor ASA
Carbonvert LLC
Tailwater Capital LLC
Enagas SA
Natural Resource Partners LP
TDL Partners Ltd
Nutrien Ltd
Bluestar Energy Capital LLC
Bear Head Energy Inc
TransGas Development Systems
HIF Global
Newpoint Gas LLC
ProtonH2
MMEX Resources Corp
Bakken Energy LLC
World Energy Gh2 Inc
Canadian Natural Resources
Atco Ltd
Suncor Energy Inc.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Sector Grid and Leaders

Trump’s Newest Tariffs

Power Outlook & Generation

• Renewable Energy and Net-Zero Emissions Targets

• Power Capacity Share Outlook

• Power Generation Share Outlook

• Share of Renewable Generation by Country

• Thermal Power: Decommissioning & Emissions

• Major Players in Renewable Power, Energy Storage

• Energy Storage Outlook

• Top Battery Energy Storage Projects and Policies, Electric Vehicles

• EV Sales and Adoption Forecasts

• Regional Policies, Renewable fuels

• Renewable diesel

• SAFs

• Ethanol and FAME biodiesel

• Largest Active and Upcoming Renewable Refineries

• Regional Policies, CCUS

• CCUS Status and Outlook

• Largest Active and Upcoming Projects

• Regional Policies, Hydrogen

• Capacity Outlook and Development Stages

• Key Players

• Active and Upcoming Projects

• High-case and Low-case Scenarios

• Hydrogen End-Use Sectors

• Regional Policies

Table

• Sector grid and leaders

• Trump’s tariffs’ effect on energy transition technologies

• NA renewable energy and net-zero emissions’ targets

• Top 10 solar EPC providers in NA

• Top 10 solar equipment manufacturers in NA

• Top 10 wind EPC providers in NA

• Top 10 wind equipment manufacturers in NA

• Top 10 active and upcoming energy storage projects

• Top 10 active and upcoming renewable refineries

• Top 10 active and upcoming standalone carbon capture projects

• Top 10 combined CCUS and standalone storage projects

• Top 10 active and upcoming low-carbon hydrogen plants

Figures

• NA annual CO2 emissions, 2000-2023_x000D_

• NA power capacity share, 2018-2035_x000D_

• NA power capacity share, 2025 _x000D_

• NA power capacity share, 2035_x000D_

• NA power generation share, 2018-2035_x000D_

• NA renewable generation by type, 2018-2035_x000D_

• Renewable share of total power generation (incl. large hydropower), 2025-2035_x000D_

• NA upcoming and decommissioning thermal capacity, 2025-2035_x000D_

• Annual CO2 emissions from thermal power in NA, 2010-2023_x000D_

• Top 10 owners of active and upcoming solar PV capacity in NA_x000D_

• Top 10 owners of active and upcoming wind capacity in NA_x000D_

• NA cumulative energy storage capacity by technology, 2020-2030_x000D_

• NA transmission investment, 2022-2027_x000D_

• BEV sales forecast, 2020-2035_x000D_

• NA BEV share of LV sales, 2020-3032_x000D_

• NA RD production capacity, 2020-2030_x000D_

• NA top 10 companies for 2030 RD capacity_x000D_

• NA SAF production capacity, 2020-2030_x000D_

• NA top 10 companies for 2030 SAF capacity_x000D_

• NA ethanol production capacity, 2020-2030_x000D_

• NA FAME biodiesel production capacity, 2020-2030_x000D_

• NA CCUS capacity, 2020-2030_x000D_

• NA top 10 CCUS facility industries by 2030 capacity_x000D_

• Top 5 regions for active and upcoming capacity up to 2030_x000D_

• NA low-carbon hydrogen production by development stage, 2025-2030_x000D_

• Top 20 companies’ net capacity share in North American low-carbon hydrogen projects in 2030_x000D_

• NA low-carbon hydrogen capacity scenarios, 2025-2030_x000D_

• NA target end-use sectors for low-carbon hydrogen_x000D_

• Percentage of NA low-carbon hydrogen production by consumer industry

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