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Global Offshore Oil and Gas Upstream Development Outlook to 2025

Globally, during the outlook period 2021-2025, a total of 355 key crude and natural gas offshore projects are expected to start operations in 48 countries. Among these, 130 represent the number of planned offshore projects with identified development plans and 225 represent the number of early-stages announced offshore projects that are undergoing conceptual studies and that are yet to be approved for development (pre-FID). In terms of the number of planned offshore oil and gas projects, Brazil leads among countries with 17 projects, followed by China with 14 projects. The UK leads in terms of announced offshore projects with 33, followed by Norway with 19 projects. Among regions, Africa and Asia are expected to lead the global offshore capital expenditure (capex).

What are the global trends in offshore upstream development?

Global crude, condensate, and natural gas production from active and planned offshore fields is expected to increase from 46.0 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboed) in 2019. The production from both announced and planned offshore oil and gas projects are expected to increase by 2025. However, it is unlikely for the production to reach its expected potential from upcoming projects as the announced projects with an internal rate of return (IRR) of less than 15 percent (announced-marginal and announced-unlikely) may not go ahead under the current economic outlook.

During the outlook period 2021–2025, 355 planned and announced offshore projects are expected to start operations by 2025 across the globe. Asia and Europe together are expected to have 191 projects or more than 50% of all upcoming projects during the outlook period. Africa and North America follow next with 46 and 39 projects respectively that are expected to come online between 2021 and 2025. So far in 2021, Asia has seen the highest number of projects starting with 6.

What are the key economic metrics of major upcoming oil projects?

Globally, among the key upcoming offshore crude projects that are expected to start operations in the period 2021–2025, Trion of Mexico is the biggest field in terms of recoverable reserves. Lula Oeste and Buzios VI (Franco) in Brazil are some other key projects with the highest recoverable reserves. Among the key upcoming oil projects across the globe during the outlook period, Buzios VI (Franco) in Brazil has the highest IRR of more than 50%, while Trion has the lowest IRR of more than 10%.

Brazil contributes more than 25% of the total crude oil and condensate reserves of the total remaining crude oil and condensate reserves of global planned and announced offshore projects for the period 2021–2025. In terms of the highest IRR, the oil projects in Timor-Leste are expected to lead with more than 80%. While the upcoming oil projects in Denmark have the lowest IRRs. For break-even oil prices, Denmark’s upcoming fields have the highest break-even price per barrel. Whilst projects in Cameroon have the lowest break-even prices across the globe.

What is the expenditure outlook for new projects in the Global Offshore Upstream Development?

Out of the total proposed offshore new project capex, more than 20% is expected to be spent on the planned and announced projects in the Africa region during the period 2021–2025. Asia closely follows Africa. A significant amount of capex in these regions comes from announced projects, indicating limited assurance. Of the total capex expected to be spent on planned and announced projects, Brazil accounts for more than 10% of the global proposed capex, followed by Mozambique. More than 30% of total capex is expected to be spent on planned and announced projects by the top five countries – Brazil, Mozambique, Qatar, the US, and China together during the outlook period. Among the key companies, during the outlook period 2021–2025, Qatar Petroleum is expected to be the top spender on its upcoming projects followed by Petroleo Brasileiro SA, and Royal Dutch Shell Plc. The new build capex spent in shallow water terrain outweighs capex in ultra-deepwater and deepwater during the outlook period and shows an increasing pattern year on year out to 2025.

Which are the key companies for major planned and announced projects?

The key companies for major planned and announced projects include Qatar Petroleum, Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE, National Iranian Oil Co, Exxon Mobil Corp, Equinor ASA, Eni SpA, BP Plc, Chevron Corp, Gazprom, Woodside Petroleum Ltd, Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co, and China National Petroleum Corp.

Global offshore oil and gas upstream development, by key companies

Global offshore oil and gas upstream development, by key companies

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Market report scope

Key Companies Qatar Petroleum, Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE, National Iranian Oil Co, Exxon Mobil Corp, Equinor ASA, Eni SpA, BP Plc, Chevron Corp, Gazprom, Woodside Petroleum Ltd, Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co, and China National Petroleum Corp

Scope

  • Global offshore oil and gas production outlook by region, key countries, and key companies for 2021-2025.
  • Global new offshore projects capital expenditure outlook by region, key countries, key companies, field terrain, and facility type.
  • Key economic metrics of major upcoming oil and gas offshore projects globally.
  • Important project Economics of offshore oil and gas projects by key countries.
  • Major projects start by region, and project count by key countries, field terrain, and facility type.
  • Latest offshore project updates and details of key planned crude and natural gas projects.

Reasons to Buy

  • Understand global offshore oil and gas production and capex outlook during the period 2021-2025.
  • Keep abreast of major global offshore key planned production projects during the outlook period.
  • Facilitate decision-making on the basis of strong oil and gas offshore production and capex data.
  • Develop business strategies with the help of specific insights on the global offshore upstream industry.
  • Assess your competitor’s planned offshore oil and gas production projects.

Table of Contents

| About GlobalData 2

2. Overview 6

3. Key Highlights 9

4. Global Development Trends 10

4.1 Production outlook 10

4.2 Capex Outlook 12

4.3 Development Outlook 13

4.4 Project Starts by Region 14

4.5 Major Project Count by Country 15

4.6 Major Project Count by Terrain 16

4.7 Major Projects by Facility Type 17

4.8 Latest Project Updates 18

5. Oil Development Focus 21

5.1 Crude & Condensate Production Outlook by Region 21

5.2 Crude & Condensate Production Outlook by Country 24

5.3 Crude & Condensate Production Outlook by Company 27

5.4 Upcoming Oil Projects 30

5.5 Key Economic Metrics of Major Upcoming Oil Projects 40

6. Gas Development Focus 43

6.1 Natural Gas Outlook by Region 43

6.2 Natural Gas Outlook by Country 46

6.3 Natural Gas Outlook by Company 49

6.4 Upcoming Gas Projects 52

6.5 Key Economic Metrics of Major Upcoming Gas Projects 62

7. Expenditure Outlook 65

7.1 New Project Expenditure Outlook by Region 65

7.2 New Project Expenditure Outlook by Country 67

7.3 New Project Expenditure Outlook by Company 70

7.4 New Project Expenditure Outlook by Field Terrain 72

7.5 New Project Expenditure Outlook by Facility Type 74

8. Appendix 77

8.1 Abbreviations 77

8.2 Methodology 77

| Contact Us 78

List of Tables

Table 1: Production Outlook from Producing, Planned, and Announced Projects (mboed), 2019-2025 11

Table 2: Capex Outlook from Producing, Planned and Announced Projects (US$ bil), 2019-2025 12

Table 3: Recoverable Reserves (mmboe) from Planned and Announced Projects by Key Countries, Field Terrain, and Project Count, 2021-2025 13

Table 4: Major Planned and Announced Project Starts by Region, 2021-2025 14

Table 5: Major Planned and Announced Project Starts by Key Countries, 2021-2025 15

Table 6: Major Planned and Announced Projects of Key Countries by Terrain, 2021-2025 16

Table 7: Major Planned and Announced Projects by Facility Type, 2021-2025 17

Table 8: Latest Project Updates, 2021 18

Table 9: Crude and Condensate Production Outlook by Region (mbd), 2021-2025 21

Table 10: Crude and Condensate Production Outlook from Planned and Announced Projects by Region (mbd), 2021-2025 23

Table 11: Crude and Condensate Production Outlook by Key Countries (mbd), 2021-2025 24

Table 12: Crude and Condensate Production Outlook from Planned and Announced Projects by Key Countries (mbd), 2021-2025 26

Table 13: Crude and Condensate Production Outlook by Key Companies (mbd), 2021-2025 27

Table 14: Crude and Condensate Production Outlook from Planned and Announced Projects by Key Companies (mbd), 2021-2025 29

Table 15: Key Upcoming Crude Projects, 2021-2025 30

Table 16: Economic Metrics of Major Planned and Announced Oil Projects, 2021-2025 41

Table 17: Economic Metrics of Major Planned and Announced Oil Projects by Key Countri2021-2025 42

Table 18: Natural Gas Production Outlook by Region (mmcfd), 2021-2025 43

Table 19: Natural Gas Production Outlook from Planned and Announced Projects by Region (mmcfd), 2021-2025 45

Table 20: Natural Gas Production Outlook by Key Countries (mmcfd), 2021-2025 46

Table 21: Natural Gas Production Outlook from Planned and Announced Projects by Key Countries (mmcfd), 2021-2025 48

Table 22: Natural Gas Production Outlook by Key Companies (mmcfd), 2021-2025 49

Table 23: Natural Gas Production Outlook from Planned and Announced Projects by Key Companies (mmcfd), 2021-2025 51

Table 24: Key Upcoming Gas Projects, 2021-2025 52

Table 25: Economic Metrics of Major Planned and Announced Gas Projects, 2021-2025 62

Table 26: Economic Metrics of Major Planned and Announced Gas Projects by Key Countries, 2021-2025 64

Table 27: Capex Outlook for Major Planned and Announced Projects by Region (US$ mil), 2021-2025 65

Table 28: New Project Expenditure Metrics by Region, 2021-2025 66

Table 29: Capex Outlook for Major Planned and Announced Projects by Key Countries (US$ mil), 2021-2025 67

Table 30: New Project Expenditure Metrics by Key Countries, 2021-2025 69

Table 31: Capex Outlook for Major Planned and Announced Projects by Key Companies (US$ bil), 2021-2025 70

Table 32: New Project Expenditure Metrics by Key Companies, 2021-2025 71

Table 33: Capex Outlook for Major Planned and Announced Projects by Field Terrain (US$ mil), 2021-2025 72

Table 34: New Project Expenditure Metrics by Field Terrain 73

Table 35: Capex Outlook for Major Planned and Announced Projects by Facility Type (US$ mil), 2021-2025 74

Table 36: New Project Expenditure Metrics by Facility Type, 2021-2025 76

List of Figures

Figure 1: Production Outlook from Producing, Planned, and Announced Projects (mboed), 2019-2025 10

Figure 2: Capex Outlook from Producing, Planned, and Announced Projects (US$ bil), 2019-2025 12

Figure 3: Recoverable Reserves (mmboe) from Planned and Announced Projects by Key Countries, Field Terrain, and Project Count, 2021-2025 13

Figure 4: Major Planned and Announced Project Starts by Region, 2021-2025 14

Figure 5: Major Planned and Announced Project Starts by Key Countries, 2021-2025 15

Figure 6: Major Planned and Announced Projects of Key Countries by Terrain, 2021-2025 16

Figure 7: Major Planned and Announced Projects by Facility Type, 2021-2025 17

Figure 8: Crude and Condensate Production Outlook by Region (mbd), 2021-2025 21

Figure 9: Crude and Condensate Production Outlook from Planned and Announced Projects by Region (mbd), 2021-2025 22

Figure 10: Crude and Condensate Production Outlook from Planned and Announced Projects by Region (mbd), 2021-2025 22

Figure 11: Crude and Condensate Production Outlook by Key Countries (mbd), 2021-2025 24

Figure 12: Crude and Condensate Production Outlook from Planned and Announced Projects by Key Countries (mbd), 2021-2025 25

Figure 13: Crude and Condensate Production Outlook from Planned and Announced Projects by Key Countries (mbd), 2021-2025 25

Figure 14: Crude and Condensate Production Outlook by Key Companies (mbd), 2021-2025 27

Figure 15: Crude and Condensate Production from Planned and Announced Projects by Key Companies, Field Terrain and Project Count, 2021-2025 28

Figure 16: Crude and Condensate Production from Planned and Announced Projects by Key Companies, Field Terrain and Project Count, 2021-2025 28

Figure 17: Economic Metrics of Major Planned and Announced Oil Projects, 2021-2025 40

Figure 18: Economic Metrics of Major Planned and Announced Oil Projects by Key Countries, 2021-2025 42

Figure 19: Natural Gas Production Outlook by Region (mmcfd), 2021-2024 43

Figure 20: Natural Gas Production Outlook from Planned and Announced Projects by Region (mmcfd), 2021-2025 44

Figure 21: Natural Gas Production Outlook from Planned and Announced Projects by Region (mmcfd), 2021-2025 44

Figure 22: Natural Gas Production Outlook by Key Countries (mmcfd), 2021-2025 46

Figure 23: Natural Gas Production Outlook from Planned and Announced Projects by Key Countries (mmcfd), 2021-2025 47

Figure 24: Natural Gas Production Outlook from Planned and Announced Projects by Key Countries (mmcfd), 2021-2025 47

Figure 25: Natural Gas Production Outlook by Key Companies (mmcfd), 2021-2025 49

Figure 26: Natural Gas Production Outlook from Planned and Announced Projects by Key Companies (mmcfd), 2021-2025 50

Figure 27: Natural Gas Production Outlook from Planned and Announced Projects by Key Companies (mmcfd), 2021-2025 50

Figure 28: Economic Metrics of Major Planned and Announced Gas Projects, 2021-2025* 62

Figure 29: Economic Metrics of Major Planned and Announced Gas Projects by Key Countries, 2021-2025* 64

Figure 30: Capex Outlook for Major Planned and Announced Projects by Region (US$ bil), 2021-2025 65

Figure 31: New Project Expenditure Metrics by Region* 66

Figure 32: Capex Outlook for Major Planned and Announced Projects by Key Countries (US$ mil), 2021-2025 67

Figure 33: New Project Expenditure Metrics by Key Countries, 2021-2025 68

Figure 34: Capex Outlook for Major Planned and Announced Projects by Key Companies (US$ bil), 2021-2025 70

Figure 35: New Project Expenditure Metrics by Key Companies, 2021-2025* 71

Figure 36: Capex Outlook for Major Planned and Announced Projects by Field Terrain (US$ mil), 2021-2025 72

Figure 37: New Project Expenditure Metrics by Field Terrain 73

Figure 38: Capex Outlook for Major Planned and Announced Projects by Facility Type (US$ mil), 2021-2025 74

Figure 39: New Project Expenditure Metrics by Facility Type, 2021-2025* 76

Frequently Asked Questions

The key companies for major planned and announced projects include Qatar Petroleum, Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE, National Iranian Oil Co, Exxon Mobil Corp, Equinor ASA, Eni SpA, BP Plc, Chevron Corp, Gazprom, Woodside Petroleum Ltd, Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co, and China National Petroleum Corp.

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