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Pancreatic Cancer – Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2029

Pancreatic cancer is currently the fourth leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the United States, following lung cancer and breast cancer and seventh leading cause of cancer related deaths worldwide with 432,242 related deaths being reported in 2018. Pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC), classified as an exocrine pancreatic cancer, is considered to be the most common type of pancreatic cancer, accounting for 80% of all pancreatic cancer diagnoses.

The treatment paradigm for pancreatic cancer is predominantly composed of chemotherapies, most notably FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine-based therapies, which are considered to be gold standard for pancreatic cancer. In patients exhibiting genetic mutations, targeted therapies such as Vitrakvi (larotrectinib), Rozlytrek (entrectinib), Poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitor Lynparza (olaparib), and Keytruda (pembrolizumab) are currently included in treatment guidelines across the 8MM. CP-613 (devimistat) is the lead pipeline candidate in 1L setting. This indication will also se introduction of 2 strong pipeline agents in 3L setting.

KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED

• Nine late-stage pipeline agents are going to enter the pancreatic cancer market from 2019 onwards. What impact will these agents have on the market? Which of these drugs will have the highest peak sales, and why?

• What are the current unmet needs in pancreatic cancer, which pipeline agents are positioned to counter these unmet needs? What are the opportunities for R&D?

• What is the market outlook in the 8MM from 2019-2029? Considering major patent expiries, launch of new premium priced agents and expected label expansions.

• What are the main corporate trends? Who are the current and future players?

Scope

Overview of pancreatic cancer including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment guidelines.

Topline pancreatic cancer market revenue, annual cost of therapy, and major pipeline product sales in the forecast period.

Key topics covered include current treatment and pipeline therapies, unmet needs and opportunities, and the drivers and barriers affecting pancreatic cancer therapeutics sales in the 8MM.

Pipeline analysis: Comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline drugs (Phase III).

Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global pancreatic cancer therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Key Highlights

The main drivers of growth include the anticipated approval and launch of 9 pipeline therapies, in addition to label expansions of currently marketed therapies across the 8MM during the forecast period.

The main barriers to growth in the 8MM include the patent expiry of major brands and the high price of premium priced therapeutics entering the market.

Among the late-stage pipeline products and marketed agents, CP-613 (devimistat) and Masiviera (masitinib) are expected to generate the greatest revenues over the forecast period.

The most important unmet needs in the pancreatic cancer market include: effective treatment options that prolong survival in advanced or metastatic settings, early diagnosis and tumor targeting drugs with novel mechanisms of actions.

Reasons to Buy

The report will enable you to:

Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies, using a detailed overview of current pipeline products and technologies to identify companies with the most robust pipelines.

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global pancreatic cancer therapeutics market.

Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global pancreatic cancer market in the future.

Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.

Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.

Track drug sales in the global pancreatic cancer therapeutics market from 2019-2029.

Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

Key Players

Roche

OSI Pharmaceuticals

Merrimack Pharmaceuticals / Baxalta

Bayer

Loxo Oncology

Ipsen Pharma

Celgene

Taiho

Biogene

AstraZeneca

Merck & Co

Pfizer

Erytech

Rafael

Eleison

AB Science

FibroGen

Tyme

Corcept

Tella

Mateon/Oncotelic

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 Pancreatic Cancer: Executive Summary

2.1 Global Pancreatic Cancer Market Expected to Grow at

8.2% CAGR to $4.1B During 2019–2029

2.2 Assessing Viability of Novel Tumor Targeting Therapies – A Key Focus of Current Clinical Development

2.3 Lack of Effective Treatment Options – Highest Unmet Need in PDAC

2.4 High Opportunity for Pipeline Agents Demonstrating Increased Overall Survival

2.5 Targeted Therapies Provide a Brighter Outlook for PDAC

2.6 What Do Physicians Think?

3 Introduction

3.1 Catalyst

3.2 Related Reports

3.3 Upcoming Related Reports

4 Disease Overview

4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology

4.1.1 Etiology

4.1.2 Pathophysiology

4.2 Classification or Staging Systems

5 Epidemiology

5.1 Disease Background

5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

5.3 Global and Historical Trends

5.4 Forecast Methodology

5.4.1 Sources Used

5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods

5.4.3 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer and PDAC

5.4.4 Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC by Stages

5.4.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC by Familial PDAC by Germline Mutation

5.4.6 Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC by KRAS and NTRK Gene Fusion Mutation

5.4.7 Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC by PD-L1 Expression

5.4.8 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PDAC

5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Pancreatic Cancer, 2019–2029

5.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer

5.5.2 Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC

5.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC

5.5.4 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC

5.5.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC by Stage at Diagnosis

5.5.6 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial PDAC by Germline Mutations

5.5.7 Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC by KRAS and NTRK Gene Mutations

5.5.8 Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC by PD-L1 Expression

5.5.9 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PDAC

5.6 Discussion

5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

5.6.2 COVID-19 Impact

5.6.3 Limitations of Analysis

5.6.4 Strengths of Analysis

6 Current Treatment Options

6.1 Overview

7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

7.1 Overview

7.2 Early Detection

7.3 Expansion of Eligible Patient Population and Need for the Discovery of New Biomarkers

7.4 Increased Availability of Treatment Options

7.5 Treatment Options in the Third-Line Setting

7.6 Prolonged Life Expectancy/Survival

8 R&D Strategies

8.1 Overview

8.1.1 Drugs Targeting Tumor Immune Evasion Mechanisms

8.1.2 Expansion into Neoadjuvant and Adjuvant Settings

8.1.3 Explore Viability of Novel Targets and Mechanism of Action

8.1.4 Reformulation of Marketed Drugs

8.1.5 Therapy Sequencing

8.2 Clinical Trials Design

8.2.1 Key Clinical Trials

8.2.2 Primary and Secondary Endpoints

8.2.3 Trial Design Characteristics

9 Pipeline Assessment

9.1 Overview

9.2 Innovative Early-Stage Approaches

9.2.1 Chimeric Antigen Receptor (CAR) T-Cell Therapy

9.2.2 Gene therapy

9.2.3 Cancer vaccine

9.3 Other Drugs in Development

10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis

10.1 Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs

10.2 Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs

10.3 Competitive Assessment

10.4 Top-Line 10-Year Forecast

10.4.1 US

10.4.2 5EU

10.4.3 Japan

10.4.4 Urban China

10.4.5 Conclusion

11 Appendix

11.2 Bibliography

11.3 Abbreviations

11.4 Methodology

11.4.1 Forecasting Methodology

11.4.2 Diagnosed Patients

11.4.3 Percent Drug-Treated Patients

11.4.4 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class

11.4.5 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates

11.4.6 General Pricing Assumptions

11.4.7 Individual Drug Assumptions

11.4.8 Generic Erosion

11.4.9 Pricing of Pipeline Agents

11.5 Primary Research

11.5.1 KOLs

11.5.2 Payers

11.6 Primary Research – Prescriber Survey

11.7 About the Authors

11.7.1 Analyst

11.7.2 Therapy Area Director

11.7.3 Epidemiologist

11.7.4 Managing Epidemiologist

11.7.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

11.7.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

11.8 About GlobalData

11.9 Contact Us

11.10 Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Pancreatic Cancer: Key Metrics in the 8MM

Table 2: Selected Genetic Syndromes with Associated Pancreatic Cancer Risk

Table 3: AJCC TNM classification System for Pancreatic Cancer

Table 4: AJCC TNM Staging System for Pancreatic Cancer

Table 5: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for PDAC

Table 6: Current Leading Treatments for Pancreatic Cancer, 2019

Table 7: Key Pipeline Agents in Development for Pancreatic cancer, 2019-2029

Table 8: Key Phase II/III Clinical Trials in Pancreatic Cancer, 2019-2029

Table 9: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Pancreatic Cancer, 2019–2029

Table 10: Leading Pharmaceutical Companies Innovating in CAR-T Therapy in 2019

Table 11: Drugs in Development for Pancreatic Cancer, 2019–2029

Table 12: Clinical Benchmarking of Key Marketed & Pipeline Products – First Line

Table 13: Clinical Benchmarking of Key Marketed & Pipeline Products – Second Line

Table 14: Commercial Benchmarking of Key Marketed & Pipeline Products – First Line

Table 15: Commercial Benchmarking of Key Marketed & Pipeline Products – Second Line

Table 16: Key Events Impacting Sales for Pancreatic Cancer in the US, 2019–2029

Table 17: Pancreatic Cancer Market – Global Drivers and Barriers, 2019–2029

Table 18: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for Pancreatic Cancer

Table 19: Key Historical and Projected Patent Expiry Dates for Pancreatic Cancer

Table 20: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country

List of Figures

Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for Pancreatic Cancer in 2019 and 2029

Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Drugs Benchmarked Against the Standard of Care, FOLFIRINOX – First Line

Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Drugs Benchmarked Against the Commonly Used Therapies, Gemcitabine + Abraxane and Onivyde

Figure 4: 8MM, Diagnosed Incidence of PDAC, Men, Ages ≥18 Years, 2009–2029, Cases Per 100,000 Population

Figure 5: 8MM, Diagnosed Incidence of PDAC, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2009–2029, Cases Per 100,000 Population

Figure 6: 8MM, Sources Used and Not Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer and PDAC

Figure 7: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC by Stage at Diagnosis

Figure 8: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial PDAC by Germline Mutation

Figure 9: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast of PDAC by KRAS and NTRK Gene Fusion Mutation

Figure 10: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the PD-L1 Expression of PDAC

Figure 11: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PDAC

Figure 12: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2019

Figure 13: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2019

Figure 14: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC, by Sex, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2019

Figure 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC by Age, Both Sexes, N, 2019

Figure 16: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC by Stage at Diagnosis, Ages ≥18 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2019

Figure 17: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial PDAC by Germline Mutations, Ages ≥18 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2019

Figure 18: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC by KRAS and NTRK Gene Fusion Mutations, Ages ≥18 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2019

Figure 19: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of PDAC by PD-L1 Expression, Ages ≥18 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2019

Figure 20: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PDAC, Ages ≥18 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2019

Figure 21: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in Pancreatic Cancer, 2020

Figure 22: Overview of Development Pipeline in Pancreatic Cancer

Figure 23: Key Phase II/III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for Pancreatic Cancer in the 8MM During the Forecast Period

Figure 24: Competitive Assessment of Key Pipeline Products – First Line

Figure 25: Competitive Assessment of Key Pipeline Products – Second Line

Figure 26: Global Sales Forecast by Country for Pancreatic Cancer in 2019 and 2029

Figure 27: Global Sales Forecast by Class for Pancreatic Cancer in 2019 and 2029

Figure 28: Sales Forecast by Class for Pancreatic Cancer in the US in 2019 and 2029

Figure 29: Sales Forecast by Class for Pancreatic Cancer in the 5EU in 2019 and 2029

Figure 30: Sales Forecast by Class for Pancreatic Cancer in the Japan in 2019 and 2029

Figure 31: Sales Forecast by Class for Pancreatic Cancer in Urban China in 2019 and 2029

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