Tech, Media and Telecom (TMT) Predictions 2021 – Thematic Research

In this report, the top 30 themes that will impact the technology, media, and telecoms (TMT) sector in 2021 has been identified. For each theme, it offers a series of predictions, identify winners and losers, and point you to further reading.

Which are the major technology themes impacting the TMT sector?

Few of the major technology themes impacting the TMT sector in 2021 are artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, and quantum computing.

Artificial intelligence (AI)

AI is one of the most hyped technologies, with reality often falling short of vendors’ world-altering promises. However, 2021 will be less about making bold statements and more about delivering tangible benefits. The industry will focus on business use cases that deliver rapid operational improvements.

Cybersecurity

The number and severity of cybersecurity attacks will only continue to rise. Phishing is the most common attack type, ransomware the most lucrative. Ransom demands appear to have no ceiling, as evidenced by the ransom demanded from Software AG in 2020. Data privacy breaches are an ongoing concern. Business email compromise (BEC) will be one of the biggest threats in the coming year.

Quantum computing

While widespread enterprise use remains years away, the hype around quantum computing (QC) continued to build in 2020, and with good reason. More people than ever are getting to grips with QC, with many companies now offering quantum cloud experiences for beginners and developers alike. Two separate organizations, Google and the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC), have claimed the quantum advantage, but practical use cases need to be proven in 2021 for the field to continue to attract investment.

Which are the major macroeconomic themes impacting the TMT sector?

The major macroeconomic themes impacting the TMT sector in 2021 are COVID-19, sustainability, the future of work, geopolitics, social media, M&A, and Generation Hashtag.

COVID-19

Local companies in countries with vaccine access will be able to restart business in 2021. However, companies with global supply chains and workforces will have to adapt. Even companies that emerge relatively unscathed from COVID-19 will seek greater flexibility in their supply chains. Relying on a single country (i.e., China) for production will no longer be considered sustainable.

Sustainability

Sustainability will be a key theme in 2021. Many factors will push this topic to the forefront: increasingly frequent extreme weather events, a new US president committed to tackling climate change, the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference (COP26), and growing pressure from investors and consumers.

The future of work

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated changes to the way that people work around the globe and across industries. Some degree of remote working will become permanent in office jobs, and industry will build more resilient supply chains. The inexorable rise of the gig economy will lead to further legal battles in 2021, at a time when fundamental shifts in the labor market will force governments to plug holes and write new legislation. Automation will continue to rebalance the labor market, with smarter robots decreasing the need for in-person attendance.

Geopolitics

The open internet continues to be undermined by trade disputes, most notably between the US and China. A Biden presidency will prompt increased cooperation with the EU and other international bodies, which will weaken China’s technological reach and improve regulatory processes. However, non-democratic regimes will also restrict access to the open internet and further tie their tech companies to political structures.

M&A

Despite the global pandemic, total M&A activity in the global technology, media, and telecom sector reached a significant value in 2020. The top three themes that drove M&A activity across the TMT industry in 2020 were connectivity, big data, and cloud.

Social Media

Anyone born between 1991 and 2005 is a member of Generation Hashtag. The priorities and preferences of this demographic, which incorporates younger Millennials and older members of Generation Z (Gen Z), are reshaping the corporate world. At a rough estimate, Generation Hashtag makes up one-quarter of the global population, and its influence will increase as its members continue to enter the workforce.

Which are the major regulatory themes impacting the TMT sector?

The major regulatory themes impacting the TMT sector in 2021 will be data privacy, antitrust, and misinformation.

Data privacy

EU plans for a Digital Single Market (DSM) are coming to fruition, causing stricter regulations, particularly for messaging providers such as Microsoft (Skype) and Facebook (WhatsApp). US federal data protection legislation will also be debated in 2021. Consumer data privacy regulations will limit Big Tech because vast data stores equate to market power.

Antitrust

The tide is turning for Chinese Big Tech companies, with fintech regulations proposed after years of freedom for companies like Tencent and Alibaba. Meanwhile, in the West, landmark antitrust cases such as the US Department of Justice (DoJ) lawsuit against Google, launched in October 2020, will set a precedent for future cases against internet giants. The proposed EU Digital Services Act will provide specific regulations for online platforms.

Misinformation

Big Tech will continue to self-regulate harmful content in 2021. Potentially divisive events like the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and President Biden’s inauguration will increase the necessity for self-regulation of misinformation. However, this will not be enough for Big Tech to avoid official regulation.

Who are the key players in the TMT sector?

Some of the key players in the TMT sector are Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Alibaba, Baidu, Apple, Tencent, Facebook, and IBM.

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Market report scope

 Scope

• We classify our top 30 themes for 2021 into three groupings. Few of the major technology themes impacting the TMT sector in 2021 will be: artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, quantum computing
• The major macroeconomic themes impacting the TMT sector in 2021 will be: COVID-19, sustainability, the future of work, geopolitics, social media, M&A, and Generation Hashtag.
• The major regulatory themes impacting the TMT sector in 2021 will be data privacy, antitrust, and misinformation.

Key Highlights

This TMT Predictions 2021 report identifies the top 30 themes that will impact the TMT sector in 2021. For each theme, we offer a series of predictions, identify winners and losers, and point you to further reading.

Reasons to Buy

• Companies who invest in the right themes become success stories; those who miss the big themes end up as failures. Given that so many themes are disruptive, it is very easy to be blindsided by industry outsiders who invade your sector.
• So, to help our clients gain competitive advantage, we have developed GlobalData’s thematic research ecosystem, a single, integrated global research platform that provides an easy-to-use framework for tracking all themes across all companies in all sectors.
• This report is a multi-theme report organized by theme. It covers 30 themes, drawn from technology, macroeconomics, and regulation. It should be read in conjunction with another multi-theme report, Tech, Media, & Telecom Themes 2021, which is organized by sector.