Type 2 Diabetes (T2D): Epidemiology Forecast to 2035

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Type 2 diabetes (T2D), formerly known as non-insulin dependent or adult-onset diabetes, is a chronic condition characterized by a non-autoimmune progressive loss of pancreatic beta cells, which produce insulin (Lu et al., 2024; World Health Organization [WHO], 2024). T2D accounts for over 90% of all diabetes cases, with type 1 and gestational diabetes making up the majority of the remaining cases (Goyal, Singhal and Jialal, 2023). T2D most commonly occurs in persons older than 45 years, however its prevalence in children is increasing (Goyal, Singhal and Jialal, 2023). Diabetes, and T2D specifically, is one of the most common non-communicable diseases globally, with an estimated 529 million diabetes patients globally in 2021, of which 96% are estimated to have T2D (Ong et al., 2023; Taheri Soodejani, 2024). This represents an expected prevalence rate of 7,079 cases per 100,000 people by 2030, with a higher prevalence in men than women (Khan et al., 2020). The rising prevalence has been attributed to several factors, such as an increased consumption of unhealthy foods, a sedentary lifestyle, and older age. Most prominently, people with a higher body mass index (BMI) are at an increased risk of developing T2D (Khan et al., 2020). T2D is the ninth leading cause of mortality worldwide, with the risk of premature death being estimated to be about two times greater than that of the general population (Khan et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2024). Additionally, diabetes can have several complications, distinguishing between acute and chronic complications. Acute complications can include diabetic ketoacidosis and hypoglycemia, and chronic complications can include diabetic retinopathy and diabetic nephropathy (Farmaki et al., 2020).

This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical epidemiological trends for T2D in the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). The report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D, segmented by age (all ages) and sex. Additionally, the report provides a forecast for the prevalent cases of major comorbidities of T2D, including chronic kidney disease (CKD), heart failure, obesity, hypertension, and dyslipidemia in the diagnosed T2D prevalent pool. This epidemiology forecast for T2D is supported by data obtained from peer-reviewed articles and population-based studies. The forecast methodology was kept consistent across the 7MM to allow for a meaningful comparison of the forecast diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D across markets.

Scope

The Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) Epidemiology Report and Forecast provide an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global trends of T2D in the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan).

The report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast of the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D in these markets from 2025–35. The diagnosed prevalent cases are further segmented by sex and age (all ages). Additionally, the report provides a forecast for the prevalent cases of major comorbidities of T2D, including chronic kidney disease, heart failure, obesity, hypertension, and dyslipidemia in the diagnosed T2D prevalent pool.

Reasons to Buy

The Type 2 Diabetes Epidemiology series will allow you to:

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global type 2 diabetes markets.

Quantify patient populations in the global type 2 diabetes markets to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.

Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for type 2 diabetes therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Understand magnitude of the prevalent diagnosed type 2 diabetes population by age, sex, and present comorbidity.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

List of Tables

List of Figures

1 Executive Summary

1.1 Catalyst

1.2 Related reports

1.3 Upcoming reports

2 Epidemiology

2.1 Disease background

2.2 Risk factors and comorbidities

2.3 Global and historical trends

2.4 7MM forecast methodology

2.4.1 Sources

2.4.2 Forecast assumptions and methods

2.4.3 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D

2.4.4 Diagnosed cases of obesity among the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D

2.4.5 Diagnosed cases of CKD among the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D

2.4.6 Diagnosed cases of heart failure among the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D

2.4.7 Diagnosed cases of hypertension among the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D

2.4.8 Diagnosed cases of dyslipidemia among the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D

2.5 Epidemiological forecast for T2D (2025–35)

2.5.1 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D

2.5.2 Age-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D

2.5.3 Sex-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D

2.5.4 Comorbidities among the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D

2.6 Discussion

2.6.1 Epidemiological forecast insight

2.6.2 Limitations of the analysis

2.6.3 Strengths of the analysis

3 Appendix

3.1 Bibliography

3.2 About the Authors

3.2.1 Epidemiologist

3.2.2 Reviewers

3.2.3 Vice President of Disease Intelligence and Epidemiology

3.2.4 Global Head of Pharma Research, Analysis, and Competitive Intelligence

About GlobalData

Contact Us

Table

Table 1: Summary of newly added data types

Table 2: Summary of updated data types

Table 3: Risk factors and comorbidities for T2D

Figures

Figure 1: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D, both sexes, N, all ages, 2025 and 2035

Figure 2: 7MM, diagnosed prevalence of T2D, men and women, %, all ages, 2015–35

Figure 3: 7MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D

Figure 4: 7MM, sources used to forecast the prevalent cases of obesity among the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D

Figure 5: 7MM, sources used to forecast the prevalent cases of CKD among the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D

Figure 6: 7MM, sources used to forecast the prevalent cases of heart failure among the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D

Figure 7: 7MM, sources used to forecast the prevalent cases of hypertension among the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D

Figure 8: 7MM, sources used to forecast the prevalent cases of dyslipidemia among the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D

Figure 9: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D, N, both sexes, all ages, 2025

Figure 10: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D by age, N, both sexes, 2025

Figure 11: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D by sex, N, all ages, 2025

Figure 12: 7MM, prevalent cases of obesity among the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D, N, both sexes, all ages, 2025

Figure 13: 7MM, prevalent cases of CKD among the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D, N, both sexes, all ages, 2025

Figure 14: 7MM, prevalent cases of heart failure among the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D, N, both sexes, all ages, 2025

Figure 15: 7MM, prevalent cases of hypertension among the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D, N, both sexes, all ages, 2025

Figure 16: 7MM, 7MM, prevalent cases of dyslipidemia among the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D, N, both sexes, all ages, 2025

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