UK Commercial Motor Insurance: Market Dynamics & Opportunities 2018

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"UK Commercial Motor Insurance: Market Dynamics & Opportunities 2018", report analyzes the UK commercial motor insurance market, looking at market size as well as changes in premiums, claims, road casualties, the motor parc, regulations, and opportunities. It discusses competitors in the market, how the market is likely to change due to telematics and driverless cars, and provides future forecasts of market size up to 2022.

The commercial motor market is estimated to have grown by 2.5% in 2017, reaching £4,281m in GWP. This growth has been driven by a combination of factors, including slight economic growth which has boosted consumer and business confidence as well as an increase in the size of the commercial motor parc. Claims in the commercial motor insurance market are affected by the UK’s whiplash culture in the same way as the private motor insurance market; the UK government has sought to combat this through the proposed Civil Liability Bill, which is due to come into effect in April 2020. Once the bill is implemented the commercial motor market will likely experience a reduction in both the number and cost of claims, allowing for insurers to lower premiums.


– The UK commercial motor insurance market is estimated to have grown by 2.5% to £4,281m in 2017.

– Claims notified in the commercial motor insurance market declined in 2017; the incoming Civil Liability Bill is likely to extend this decline further in the coming years.

– The commercial motor market is forecast to continue growing, breaking through the £5bn threshold in 2022.

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents


1.1. Market summary 2

1.2. Key findings 2

1.3. Critical success factors 2


2.1. Introduction 7

2.2. Commercial motor market GWP increased in 2017 7

2.2.1. The total motor insurance market grew by

4.6% in 2017 7

2.2.2. The number of commercial vehicles continues to increase 9

2.2.3. The number of miles driven on UK roads continues to rise 11

2.2.4. Fluctuations in fuel prices will influence market dynamics 11

2.2.5. Reforms in the claims market have impacted GWP 12

2.2.6. Increases in insurance premium tax could influence the future market 13


3.1. The number of claims remains relatively consistent 14

3.1.1. Technology is a double-edged sword in the claims landscape 15

3.2. Personal injury motor claims are set for reform 15

3.2.1. The Civil Liability Bill is aimed at reforming the motor claims market 15

3.2.2. Potential changes to the Ogden rate may benefit insurers 16

3.2.3. The incoming tariff system hopes to limit the cost of claims 16

3.2.4. Pre-medical offers will no longer be available on RTA whiplash claims 17

3.2.5. Recorded personal injury motor claims fell by over 100,000 in 2017/18 18

3.3. The number of RTAs continues to fall 20

3.3.1. The number of RTAs decreased in 2016 as UK roads have become safer 20

3.3.2. Technology will reduce the number of accidents on UK roads considerably 22


4.1. The UK commercial motor market was competitive in 2016 23

4.1.1. Competition in the UK commercial motor market remains strong 23

4.1.2. The degree of competition in the commercial motor market increased in 2017 24

4.1.3. RSA was the largest commercial motor insurer in 2016 25

4.1.4. Allianz is set to expand through its venture with LV= 25

4.1.5. Aviva has a diverse product offering 26

4.1.6. AXA is set to grow its commercial motor insurance presence through the acquisition of XL 26


5.1. The commercial motor market is forecast to continue growing 28

5.1.1. The market is expected to grow year-on-year up to 2022 28

5.2. Technology will shape the commercial motor market 30

5.2.1. Telematics-based policies provide numerous benefits for policyholders 30

5.2.2. Driver aids will help reduce the number of road traffic accidents 31

5.2.3. Autonomous vehicles will change the market drastically 32

5.2.4. The future commercial motor market could come under threat from drones 32

5.3. The growth of the gig economy could help boost the commercial motor market 33

5.4. The sharing economy is both a threat and an opportunity 33

5.5. Environmental regulations could lead to increased claims costs 34


6.1. Abbreviations and acronyms 35

6.2. HHI 35

6.3. Forecasting methodology 36

6.4. Bibliography 36

6.5. Further reading 37


List of Tables

Table 1: UK motor insurance market GWP and growth rate, 2013-17 8

Table 2: Total number of commercial vehicles in the UK (000s), 2013-17 10

Table 3: New tariffs to be introduced for RTA soft tissue injury claims 17

Table 4: Personal injury motor claims 19

Table 5: GWP and market share of the top 10 providers in commercial motor insurance, 2016 vs 2017 24

Table 6: Measures of competition in the commercial motor market 25

Table 7: The forecasted size of the commercial motor market 29

Table 8: The number of telematics policies live in the UK 30

Table 9: The prevalence of in-car technology, 2017 31


List of Figures

Figure 1: The commercial motor market continued to grow in 2017 8

Figure 2: The number of commercial vehicles in the UK increased in 2017 10

Figure 3: The number of miles driven within the UK continues to increase 11

Figure 4: Fuel prices began to increase in 2017 12

Figure 5: The number of commercial motor claims fell in 2017 14

Figure 6: Total motor claims recorded fell considerably in 2017/18 20

Figure 7: The number of RTAs continues to fall 21

Figure 8: RSA holds the greatest share of the UK commercial motor insurance market 23

Figure 9: The commercial market is forecast to experience year-on-year growth 29

Figure 10: Forecasting methodology 36

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