Unconventional Production in the US Lower 48: Market Trends, Economic Viability, and Competitive Benchmarking

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The US Lower 48 Unconventional Oil and Gas Production Market Analysis delivers a comprehensive, data-driven assessment of crude oil and natural gas production across the country’s most important shale plays from 2021 to 2030. The report evaluates production outlooks, well economics, and operational performance across the Lower 48, helping energy companies, investors, and service providers make informed strategic and capital allocation decisions.

Covering the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and DJ Basin, the report shows that growth in crude oil and condensate production is expected to be led overwhelmingly by the Permian Basin between 2025 and 2030, supported by favorable pricing and resilient project economics. These dynamics continue to position the Permian as the cornerstone of US shale output.

On the natural gas side, the analysis spans key gas-rich plays including Marcellus, Utica, Permian, Haynesville, and SCOOP/STACK. Production growth over the forecast period is expected to be driven primarily by the Marcellus and Permian, with Marcellus retaining its position as the largest natural gas formation in the US.

The report also benchmarks leading operators by net acreage and activity, including Occidental Petroleum, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and EQT, offering critical insight into competitive positioning, capital deployment, and consolidation trends shaping the US Lower 48 market.

How Industry Leaders Are Using This Intelligence

Leading organizations use this report to:

  • Guide capital deployment decisions by identifying the most economically resilient shale plays and development strategies

  • Benchmark operational performance across basins using well productivity, completion design, and cost metrics

  • Support M&A and portfolio optimization by comparing acreage quality, operator positioning, and consolidation trends

  • Strengthen long-term supply forecasts for commercial planning, infrastructure investment, and market modeling

  • Stress-test strategies under different price and production scenarios to improve resilience in volatile energy markets

Scope

This report provides detailed coverage of unconventional oil and gas activity across the US Lower 48, including:

  • Analysis of crude oil and natural gas appraisal and production activity across major shale plays

  • Comprehensive production forecasts for US Lower 48 shale plays from 2021 to 2030

  • Detailed insights into well development activity, drilling permits, and transaction activity

  • In-depth assessment of well productivity, completion design, and economic viability by play

  • Benchmarking of leading operators by net acreage holdings and planned capital expenditure in 2025

  • Coverage of major mergers and acquisitions across key shale plays from 2021 to 2025

Who Should Buy This Report

This report is essential reading for decision-makers across the US energy value chain, including:

  • Exploration & Production (E&P) Companies
  • Oilfield Services & Equipment Providers (OFS)
  • Investors & Financial Institutions
  • Midstream Operators & Infrastructure Developers
  • Policymakers & Regulators

Key Highlights

  • The Permian Basin is expected to drive the majority of US Lower 48 oil production growth through 2030

  • Marcellus and Permian will be the largest contributors to US natural gas production growth over the forecast period

  • High oil prices continue to support strong shale economics, particularly in core Permian acreage

  • Operator strategies are increasingly focused on capital discipline, productivity gains, and consolidation

  • M&A activity remains a critical lever for scale, inventory quality, and cost optimization across US shale plays

Reasons to Buy

  • Build robust business and investment strategies using play-level production, economics, and activity insights

  • Identify the most competitive shale plays based on productivity, cost structures, and long-term viability

  • Benchmark operator strategies using net acreage, capex plans, and development activity

  • Stay ahead of consolidation trends with up-to-date analysis of M&A activity across major US shale basins

  • Reduce uncertainty in planning and forecasting with a clear view of US shale production through 2030

Table of Contents

01. US Lower 48, Recent Developments and Trends

Key Highlights

US Lower 48 Shale Oil and Gas Production

US Lower 48 Rig Count and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures prices

02. US Lower 48, Production and Activity Overview

US Lower 48, Production Analysis, Crude Oil, 2022–2024

US Lower 48, Crude Oil Production Outlook to 2030

US Lower 48, Production Analysis, Natural Gas, 2022–2024

US Lower 48, Natural Gas Production Outlook to 2030

US Lower 48, Drilling Activity, 2024-2025 (1/4)

US Lower 48, Drilling Activity, 2024-2025 (2/4)

US Lower 48, Drilling Activity, 2024-2025 (3/4)

US Lower 48, Drilling Activity, 2024-2025 (4/4)

US Lower 48, Well Profile

03. US Lower 48, Economic Viability

US Lower 48, Breakeven Prices

US Lower 48, Well Productivity – Initial Production Rates, 2022-2024

US Lower 48, Well Productivity – Estimated Ultimate Recovery, 2022-2024

US Lower 48, Completion Parameters, 2022-2024

US Lower 48, Well Costs

04. US Lower 48, Competitive Benchmarking

US Lower 48, Major Companies with Prominent Presence, 2025

US Lower 48, Major Companies by Crude Oil Production, 2025

US Lower 48, Major Companies by Natural Gas Production, 2025

US Lower 48, Capex of Major Companies, 2025

US Lower 48, Operational Performance of Leading Operators, 2025

US Lower 48, Well Costs, 2025

05. US Lower 48, Mergers & Acquisitions

Overview of M&A Activity

US Lower 48, Major Acquisitions

06. Appendix

Abbreviations and Definitions

About GlobalData

Contact us

Table

Table 1: Shale play-wise acreage of the major companies in the US, 2023* 26

Table 2: Crude oil and condensate production of major operators by shale plays, 2022 (mbd) 28

Table 3: Natural gas production of major operators by shale plays, 2022 (mbd) 30

Table 4: Capital expenditure by major companies, 2022-23 ($M) 32

Table 5: US L48, major deals by oil and gas companies, 2022 – November 2023 36

Figures

Figure 1: Crude oil production in the US, January 2019- September 2023 (mbd) 5

Figure 2: Rig count in the US shale and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price trend, 2019-September 2023 6

Figure 3: Shale gas production in the US and Henry Hub price trend, 2019-September 2023 7

Figure 4: Annual crude oil production outlook across major shale plays, 2020-2027 9

Figure 5: Annual natural gas production across major shale plays, 2020-2027 10

Figure 6: Wells developed across major US shale plays, January – June 2023 11

Figure 7: Rig count across major US shale plays, January – June 2023 12

Figure 8: DUC wells count and total count of wells completed in US L48, January – June 2023 13

Figure 9: Well permits and wells drilled in major shale plays, January – June 2023 14

Figure 10: Deals announced in major shale plays, January – November 2023 15

Figure 11: Crude oil break-even price across major US oil shale plays 16

Figure 12: Natural gas break-even price across major US gas shale plays 17

Figure 13: Crude oil IP30 rates of major shale plays, January 2021 – June 2023 18

Figure 14: Natural gas IP30 rates of major shale plays, January 2021 – June 2023 19

Figure 15: Crude oil EUR by major shale plays, January 2021 – June 2023 20

Figure 16: Natural gas EUR by major shale plays, January 2021 – June 2023 21

Figure 17: Average lateral length by major shale plays, January 2021 – June 2023 22

Figure 18: Average proppant mass by major shale plays, January 2021- June 2023 23

Figure 19: Average proppant mass per lateral length by major shale plays, January 2021 – June 2023 24

Figure 20: Average well costs by major shale plays 25

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