Global polyethylene capacity is poised to see considerable growth over the next five years, potentially increasing from 110.12 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2018 to 157.02 mtpa in 2023, registering a total growth of 43%, led by Asia and North America, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
The company’s report: ‘Global Polyethylene Industry Outlook to 2023 – Capacity and Capital Expenditure Forecasts with Details of All Active and Planned Plants’ reveals that around 159 planned and announced plants are scheduled to come online, predominantly in Asia and the Middle East, over the next five years.
Polyethylene capacity in Asia is expected to increase from 39.87 mtpa in 2018 to 57.10 mtpa in 2023, at an Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) of 7.2%. Among the countries in the region, China will add a capacity of 7.56 mtpa by 2023. Major capacity addition will be from the plant, Dushanzi Petrochemical Company Dushanzi Polyethylene Plant 2 (Swing), with a capacity of 0.60 mtpa by 2023.
Dayanand Kharade, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, says: “In Asia, China, with its huge population and growing economy, is expected to continue to rise in polyethylene demand. To meet this demand, the country is set to have large capacity additions. China will account for more than 40% of Asia’s polyethylene capacity additions.”
GlobalData identifies North America as the second highest in terms of polyethylene capacity additions in the global polyethylene industry. It is expected to increase from 23.15 mtpa in 2018 to 33.82 mtpa in 2023, at an AAGR of 7.6%. Most polyethylene capacity additions are from the US, with capacity of around 9.35 mtpa by 2023. Major capacity addition will be from the plants, Exxon Mobil Corporation Beaumont High Performance Polyethylene Plant and Chevron Phillips Chemical Company Pasadena Polyethylene Plant, with capacities of 1.30 mtpa and 0.99 mtpa, respectively.
Within the Middle East, polyethylene capacity is expected to increase from 20.80 mtpa in 2018 to 28.52 mtpa in 2023, at an AAGR of 6.3%. Among countries, Iran’s capacity will add around 5.54 mtpa by 2023. Major capacity additions will be from the plants, Total NPC Hormozgan Polyethylene Plant 1 and Total NPC Hormozgan Polyethylene Plant 2, each with the capacity of 0.50 mtpa by 2023.
Kharade added, “For North America and Middle East, the low-cost abundant supply of natural gas is the primary reason for the rush in polyethylene capacity additions. In addition to feedstock advantage, target exports to other American countries are also the reason for large capacity additions in the US. Iran, on account of cheaper feedstock and proximity to booming Asian markets, is set to add large capacity in the upcoming period.”
Polyethylene capacity in Former Soviet Union (FSU) is expected to increase from 2.95 mtpa in 2018 to 9.16 mtpa in 2023, at an AAGR of 22.6%. Russia is forecast to be the top country in the region with capacity additions of 4.63 mtpa by 2023. Major capacity additions will be from the plant, Far East Petrochemical Company Nakhodka Polyethylene Plant, with a capacity of 0.88 mtpa by 2023.
Africa is the fifth highest, increasing from 2.05 mtpa in 2018 to 4.70 mtpa in 2023, at an AAGR of 16.6%. Egypt leads in Africa in terms of capacity additions and it is expected to add a capacity of 1.35 mtpa by 2023.
Badlands NGLS LLC, Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd and Royal Dutch Shell Plc are the top three companies globally in terms of planned capacity additions over the outlook period.
The report also states that the three highest planned and announced global polyethylene capacity addition plants in the outlook period are ‘Bharat Petroleum Corporation Rasayani Polyethylene Plant’ in India, ‘Far East Petrochemical Company Nakhodka Polyethylene Plant’ in Russia, and ‘HPCL Rajasthan Refinery Pachpadra Polyethylene Plant (Swing)’ in India with capacities of 1.50 mtpa, 0.88 mtpa and 0.83 mtpa, respectively.