The hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) market is expected to grow from $1bn in 2019 to $5.3bn in 2029 in the eight major markets (8MM*) at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.8%, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

The company’s latest report, ‘Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029’, reveals that the significant growth in the therapy market is driven by implementing new strategies such as developing combinations of therapies with different mechanism of actions, label expansion of marketed therapies for HCC into earlier lines of therapy, and label expansion of drugs approved in other indications into HCC.

Mandana Emamzadeh, PhD, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The treatment landscape of HCC is rapidly changing and it is hoped that the numerous clinical trials due to report in the near future will expand treatment options across adjuvant, intermediate, and advanced settings.”

GlobalData’s report highlights nine late-stage pipeline therapies for HCC that will enter the market by 2029. In early- and intermediate-stage HCC, systemic therapies used as adjuvant treatment or as combinations with transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE), respectively, are seeking to introduce new options to the HCC paradigm where currently none exist. Within the advanced setting, the majority of trials are for the first-line setting and a few are in the second line, creating a competitive market.

Emamzadeh explains: “By 2029, first-line advanced HCC, with $2.5bn global sales, is forecast to be the most profitable line of therapy due to the highest number of treated cases, as well as the relatively high cost of treatment in this setting, which decreases in subsequent lines of therapy. With fewer treated cases, sales in the intermediate, second-line advanced, adjuvant, and third-line advanced settings are $1.8bn, $572.1m, $307.7m, and $120.1m, respectively.”

IO agents will be the dominant class in the HCC market contributing $3.8bn, followed by angiogenesis inhibitors and TKI contributing $965.7m and $505.5m to global sales in 2029, respectively.

Emamzadeh concludes: “Between 2019 and 2029, barriers such as patent expiry of key drugs will depreciate the market value with the emergence of generics and biosimilars of the top-selling brands, including Bayer’s Nexavar, Eisai’s Lenvima, and Roche’s Avastin. Despite this, the market is growing at an impressive rate and opportunities exist for developers to further improve the HCC treatment landscape.”

*8MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and China