Following the news that Germany is considering supplying Ukraine with German-made heavy weaponry;

Madeline Wild, Associate Defense Analyst at GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, shares her view:

“There is currently little clarity around Germany supplying heavy weaponry, such as artillery and armored vehicles, to Ukraine. What is clear, however, is the immense strain that will be placed on the BAAINBw (the German Military Procurement Agency) if any sale or transfer occurs. The department is notorious for its ongoing operational problems that have seen up to 10% of the German budget unspent in some years, revealing how the department has been running at maximum capacity even prior to recent events.

“Therefore, the huge leap in budgetary spending, and now the potential supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine, threatens to overload the procurement structures in Germany. This is arguably one of the biggest problems facing the Bundeswehr as the issues in the department may render it incapable of maintaining the weapon reserves.

“Concerns have been raised over how internal bureaucracy and staff shortages in the BAAINBw have put the brakes on fast and efficient procurement of defense platforms. This will add to fears that weapon transfers could lead to a depleted German fleet: this is because the necessary agile procurement process that would be needed to replace what is transferred in a timely manner are not in place.

“The strength and reliability of Germany’s defense industry to quickly produce replacements will mitigate against these issues, as will the newly raised pool of funds available to the Bundeswehr. Any newer models supplied to Ukraine will likely be immediately deployed as they do not require intensive training such as the Stinger missiles that have already been delivered. Any larger weaponry will likely be older Soviet models, such as the Marder IFV, which would require less training in order to be used by the Ukrainian forces. The German government has pledged to replace any technology given to Ukraine from its reserves, which is where the effects of issues within the BAAINBw may be felt.

“Germany is not the only country grappling with how to transfer sufficient weaponry without leaving its own reserves depleted. In early April, President Biden authorized the Defense Production Act of 1950 that invokes certain arrangements to ensure the domestic defense industry can be prioritized in the receipt of critical materials and industrial resources. Whilst this is not a golden ticket for unlimited arms transfers, it is a move that has helped to relieve pressure on the US defense industry as companies scramble to replace their stocks.”