Following the news that Germany’s new government is reconsidering the options available for replacing its fleet of Tornados;

Madeline Wild, Associate Defense Analyst at GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, comments:

“While the new coalition government has made few waves in the defense industry so far, new discussions over potential successors for the Tornado fleet could rock the boat. Under the Merkel government, and defense ministers Von Der Leyen and Kramp-Karrenbauer, the F-35 was taken out of the running to replace the Tornados, as it was feared that procuring the F-35 would shift focus away from the FCAS program. Currently, it is expected that replacement jets will be split between Eurofighters and F/A-18E/F. However, new defense Minister Christine Lambrecht looks set to reinclude the F-35 on the list of potential models for the Luftwaffe.

“The increasingly troubled Franco-German FCAS program may eventually provide the Luftwaffe with a sixth-generation stealth fighter jet, but, until then, the capability gap will remain unfilled. By purchasing a stealth fighter aircraft, the German Air Force would considerably increase its offerings to NATO partners, perhaps placating tensions that have arisen over low defense spending by the European power. Recent deployments to the Asia-Pacific region are likely to highlight the capability gap between Germany and both its allies and adversaries in this field, increasing the importance of having strike capabilities within the Air Force.

“A subject that comes back into focus every time the Tornado replacements are discussed is the relative importance of the successor jet being capable and certified to carry US B-61 nuclear bombs. The F-35 is currently undergoing certification to carry these weapons which will clear the jets path back into the competition. However, it is the possession of stealth strike capabilities that will likely determine the competition to replace the Tornadoes.”