Precious metals, especially gold and silver, have surged sharply in 2025. Year to date through December 26, 2025, gold and silver prices are up about 70–72% and 140–150%, respectively. Looking ahead, GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform, foresees further gains by end-2026 of around 8–15% for gold and 20–35% for silver.
Ramnivas Mundada, Director of Economic Research and Companies at GlobalData, comments: “The 2025 rally in precious metals marks the beginning of a deep, structural shift in the international monetary system, from a US-centric framework toward a more multipolar order. The move appears to reflect more than a typical safe-haven bid; it represents a strategic response by institutions and investors to rising geopolitical instability, a slowing US economy, ongoing trade frictions, and the accelerating trend toward de-dollarization.”
The surge is underpinned by critical macroeconomic factors:
- US Economic Slowdown & Fed Policy: The US Federal Reserve implemented multiple rate cuts in 2025, bringing the current rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75%. This easing cycle, combined with a softening US labor market, has lowered the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
- Geopolitical Turmoil & Tariff Wars: The global landscape in 2025 has been marked by heightened tensions, including conflicts in Eastern Europe, Middle East instability, and trade disputes involving Venezuela. Furthermore, escalating US-China and US-India trade tensions, driven by higher tariffs, have increased economic uncertainty and depressed global growth sentiment, driving investors toward safe havens.
- De-dollarization & Central Bank Action: The most compelling structural driver is the coordinated effort by central banks to diversify reserves away from the US dollar (USD). The freezing of Russia’s USD reserves post-2022 highlighted the political risks of dollar-based assets, prompting major buyers like India and China to accelerate gold accumulation. Central banks added a reported 220 tonnes of gold in Q3 2025 alone.
Regulatory Insight: SEBI Warning on Digital Buying
In November 2025, India’s stock market regulator, SEBI, issued a sharp reminder that digital gold platforms are not regulated securities. This means investors lack regulatory protection and face significant counterparty risk. GlobalData insight suggests shifting core, long-term allocations to regulated, government-backed instruments like Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs) or Gold ETFs.
Projections and Strategic Plays
GlobalData projects the bull run to persist, with increased volatility as these structural changes play out.
- Gold Targets: Projections range from $4,900–$5,100/oz by end-2026, with potential to test $5,000/oz by 2028.
- Silver Targets: The industrial demand narrative is strong. Prices could test $85–$100/oz as structural deficits deepen in the solar panel and EV sectors.
Mundada concludes: “The positives of this rally are profound wealth preservation and true portfolio diversification against systemic risk. The primary negative is the potential for sharp, sentiment-driven corrections and rising input costs across the technology supply chain. For 2026 and beyond, the focus shifts to disciplined, regulated accumulation. We are transitioning into a new, multipolar monetary era, and bullion is the asset class of choice for navigating this shift.”
