With the authorities in Australia lifting COVID-19 restrictions, public outdoor mobility and tourist arrivals have resurged, thereby bolstering on-premise and on-the-go consumption of ice cream in the country. Against this backdrop, the Australian ice cream market will expand to AUD2.7 billion ($2 billion) by 2026, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.7%, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s report, “Australia Ice Cream Market Size by Categories, Distribution Channel, Market Share and Forecast, 2021-2026,” reveals that the market growth will be primarily driven by the artisanal ice cream category, which is set to register the fastest value CAGR of 1.9% over the forecast period. The category will be followed by impulse ice cream, which will record a CAGR of 1.7% over the forecast period.

Bobby Verghese, Consumer Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “As the authorities lifted most COVID-19 restrictions, people have visited outdoor attractions more often, leading to a dip in at-home consumption of ice cream and an increase in on-premise and on-the-go consumption. Additionally, impulse purchases of ice creams resurged, in line with rising consumer footfall at retail stores and on-trade venues. The growing health concerns accentuated by the pandemic also spurred the demand for better-for-you ice creams with less fat.”

Consequently, the per capita expenditure (PCE) on ice cream in Australia increased from $23.1 in 2016 to $35.4 in 2021, surpassing the regional PCE of $2.7 and the global average of $5.2. Australia’s PCE on ice cream is projected to reach $36 by 2026.

In 2021, hypermarkets & supermarkets was the leading distribution channels in the Australian ice cream market, followed by food & drinks specialists and convenience stores. Unilever, Australasian Food Group, and Bulla Dairy Foods were the top three companies in the Australian ice cream market in 2021 in value terms, while Blue Ribbon and Magnum were the leading brands.

Verghese concludes: “The new COVID-19 wave in late 2022 is set to suppress the consumption of chilled and frozen foods such as ice cream during the peak summer months from December 2022 through February 2023. Moreover, the cost-of-living crisis triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict will compel consumers to curtail non-essential purchases or switch to cheaper brands and private labels or smaller packs, thereby slowing market growth.

“However, as the pandemic conditions and inflationary pressure subside, consumers will trade up to premium, and artisanal ice creams with organic and low-fat/-sugar recipes. Vegan alternatives are also expected to gain mass-retail appeal. These healthy alternatives, combined with the launch of new flavours and the resumption of marketing activities, will accelerate ice cream sales in Australia.”