Demand for COVID-19 tests is set to drop in 2023 as people are able to access vaccines more easily and build immunity to COVID-19, which will result in less individuals being tested specifically for the virus. Companies such as Roche, Danaher and Abbott are already anticipating this drop in demand by shifting their focus towards research and development for other fields, says GlobalData. The leading data and analytics company notes that we will see a shift towards multiparameter tests to rule out which respiratory illness a patient may have.

Selena Yu, Medical Analyst at GlobalData, says: “The declining sales of COVID-19 related products globally highlight that the world is shifting its focus away from the pandemic. The COVID-19 nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) market value in the US has dropped 35% from 2021, according to GlobalData’s COVID-19 tests market model. Additionally, the US singleplex and multiplex NAATs value is decreasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.14% and 21.06%, respectively. This large drop is attributed to the increasing usage of antigen-based testing as they are cheaper, easier to use, and provide faster results.”

Many large players in the COVID-19 tests market such as Roche, Danaher, and Abbott have recently released their Q3 financial earnings which highlight the decline in COVID-19 test sales. Roche only saw a 2% growth in its diagnostics division year-to-date (YTD) in September 2022 whereas in 2021 growth was up 39%. Since the momentum of COVID-19 testing is decreasing, Roche emphasized that it will be rejuvenating its portfolio for 2023.

Yu continues: “Danaher is anticipating halving its COVID-19 testing production from 60 million tests in 2022 to 30 million in 2023. However, the company has a strong presence in China and since the country is still implementing large volumes of testing on its population due to its strict testing policies, Danaher will continue to receive steady demand for COVID-19 test sales.”

Meanwhile, Abbott’s Q3 2022 financial report shows that global COVID-19 testing-related sales decreased by $200 million from Q3 2022 to Q3 2021, and the company’s diagnostics segment had an overall 0.2% decline during the third quarter.

Yu adds: “Despite companies shifting focus, we may see another small rise in COVID-19 testing in Q4 2022 as countries brace for the coming respiratory disease season of influenza A/B, respiratory syncytial virus, and COVID-19.”