The adult epilepsy market across the seven major markets (7MM*) is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4%, from $11.4 billion in 2025 to $17.8 billion in 2035, according to GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform.
GlobalData’s latest report, “Epilepsy (Adults): Disease Analysis Report and Forecast,” reveals that the market growth will be driven by an increase in diagnosed prevalent cases as well as the introduction of 12 late-stage pipeline products: relutrigine, vormatrigine, azetukalner, Staccato alprazolam, bexicaserin, clemizole hydrochloride, RAP-219, opakalim, carisbamate, zorevunersen sodium, ETX101, and rezanecel.
Despite a crowded landscape, there are significant clinical unmet needs in epilepsy treatment. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData have bemoaned the lack of effective therapies for epilepsy, citing that seizure freedom rates remain stable despite the wide array of ASMs currently available on the market. KOLs have also noted that currently marketed therapies focus on synaptic mechanisms and look to either decrease excitation or increase inhibition.
Jos Opdenakker, Neurology Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The current treatments increase the likelihood of adverse effects due to the ubiquity of receptors and synapses throughout the brain. They are more symptomatic in their approach and do not address the underlying pathologies that produce seizures. There are several pipeline therapies that also operate on synaptic mechanisms, and although demonstrating potential, are likely to encounter similar issues as currently marketed therapies.”
Pharmaceutical companies have recognized the issues with synaptic mechanisms, and disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) are beginning to emerge in the pipeline: of the 12 late-stage pipeline agents, three of them—Stoke Therapeutics’ zorevunersen sodium, Encoded Therapeutics’ ETX-101, and UCB’s rezanecel—are currently in trials for their disease-modifying potential in epilepsy.
Opdenakker continues: “This signals a shift in the treatment paradigm towards therapies targeting the underlying pathophysiology of the condition.”
GlobalData forecasts that the late-stage pipeline products will drive combined sales of approximately $5.4 billion by 2035 in the 7MM, with DMTs expected to comprise roughly a quarter of this figure. The most promising pipeline product is expected to be Praxis Precision Medicine’s vormatrigine, which is currently being trialed in focal and generalized epilepsy.
Opdenakker adds: “Symptomatic treatments will remain first-line, with novel entrants as an attractive option. Vormatrigine, in particular, has the potential to see strong uptake due to its efficacy in clinical trials and its distinct mechanism of action among sodium channel blockers, leveraging more selective sodium channel modulation than traditional sodium channel blocking drugs.”
Opdenakker concludes: “Although the epilepsy market is dominated by cheap generics that will act as a major barrier to growth, late-stage pipeline products have the potential to generate significant growth in the epilepsy market. This, coupled with the increase in diagnosed prevalent cases, will act as the main driver of growth across the 7MM.”
*7MM: the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Japan
