Age-related macular degeneration market across 7MM to reach $22.8 billion in 2031, forecasts GlobalData

The age-related macular degeneration (AMD) market in the seven major markets (7MM: the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Japan) is set to grow from $7.3 billion in 2021 to $22.8 billion in 2031, driven by the longer-acting anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) pipeline therapies as well as potentially first-to-market therapies for geographic atrophy (GA), forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

According to GlobalData, the growth will be supported by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of Roche’s Vabysmo (faricimab) for wet AMD (wAMD) in January 2022, coupled with the anticipated approval of longer-acting VEGF pipeline therapies as well as potentially first-to-market therapies for GA during the forecast period.

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Age-Related Macular Degeneration Market Size and Trend Report including Epidemiology and Pipeline Analysis, Competitor Assessment, Unmet Needs, Clinical Trial Strategies and Forecast, 2021-2031’, reveals that anti-VEGF therapies will continue to remain the dominant treatment modality for wAMD during the forecast period. This theme is observed both in current marketed products as well as in pipeline products that are currently in late-stage development for wAMD, with companies focusing on reducing the treatment burden associated with these therapies.

Vinie Varkey, Healthcare Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The efficacy of anti-VEGF therapies are well-established for wAMD, as demonstrated by the first wave of therapies such as Roche’s Lucentis (ranibizumab), followed by Regeneron’s Eylea (aflibercept) which is the current market leader. The key opinion leaders interviewed by GlobalData are of the consensus that while current anti-VEGF therapies have cemented their place for wAMD, longer-acting anti-VEGF therapies are of increasing importance given the treatment burden associated with current standard of care such as Eylea.”

On average, Eylea needs to be administered six days per year and Lucentis is to be administered seven days per year. However, this situation is expected to be improved by Roche’s Vabysmo. After an initial dosing regimen of every four weeks for the first four doses, it has the potential to be administered twice per year, depending on the results of optical coherence tomography and visual acuity evaluations. Late-stage pipeline therapies are also aiming to improve this feature of the wAMD market.

Varkey continues: “If the real-world outcomes establish that the recently approved therapies such as Vabysmo are indeed long-term acting for wAMD, a high bar will be set for this parameter in the field. In that case, the therapy that can potentially help to improve the feature of long-term action associated with anti-VEGF therapy, AbbVie/RevenxBio’s RGX-314. This is a gene therapy that has the potential to be used as a one-time treatment option for patients with wAMD and is currently in late-stage development. If approved, RGX-314 has the potential to disrupt the current market dynamics for wAMD.”

Another area within AMD that is set to witness growth in the forecast period is GA, an indication that currently has no approved therapies.

Varkey concludes: “The late-stage GA pipeline therapies have shown promising results in clinical trials associated with this stage of development, and there is an anticipation that these therapies will receive approval during the forecast period. These therapies include Apellis Pharma’s APL-2, IVERIC Bio’s Zimura (avacincaptad pegol), and Alkeus Pharma’s ALK-001.”

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